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郫县妇幼保健院流鼻血要多少钱达州市中西医结合医院扁桃体炎看怎么样好不好The economic battleground经济战场Gas and chocolate天然气和巧克力Supporting Ukraines economy will not be easy or cheap持乌克兰的经济怕是既不容易也不廉价THE Ukrainian economy is a mess.乌克兰的经济现在是一片混乱。Its currency, the hryvnia, has lost almost 20% of its value in the past month.过去的一个月,其货币格里夫纳已经贬值将近20%。Foreign-exchange reserves have tumbled to billion, despite the imposition of capital controls.尽管实行资本管制, 外汇储备还是已跌至150亿美元。Bank deposits fell by more than 3% in the first half of February and, since the revolution, the government has imposed limits on further withdrawals.二月上旬,存款下跌超过3%,自革命以来, 政府进一步限制提款。Tax revenues have collapsed and pension payments have been delayed.税收收入已经崩溃, 养老金也被推迟。The country was in poor-enough economic shape before all this: it was one of the reasons why Viktor Yanukovych, the deposed president, chose billion in Russian loans over a deal with the European Union—the decision that led to his downfall.此前,乌克兰的经济就已经很是贫困:这也是被废黜的总统亚努科维奇选择了俄罗斯150亿美元的贷款而不是与欧洲联盟的原因之一,此决定导致了他的垮台。Having propped up the Ukrainian economy, Russia seems to have the power, as energy provider, trading partner and creditor, to cripple it.作为乌克兰的能源供应商, 贸易伙伴和债权人,俄罗斯持过乌克兰的经济, 俄罗斯似乎也有能力削弱它。The most obvious economic attack would be to cut off the Ukraines gas.最明显的经济攻击将是切断乌克兰的天然气。That need not have huge effects either on western customers whose gas comes via Ukraine or on Russian gas earnings.这需要不会对天然气运输途经乌克兰的西方客户或俄罗斯天然气收入产生较大影响。Other Russian pipelines could handle much of the gas.其他俄罗斯管道可以处理大部分的天然气。But it would still be a costly tactic, and one to which the Ukrainians are not as vulnerable as they might seem.但这仍将是一个昂贵的策略, 乌克兰人也没有他们看起来那么脆弱。They have large gas-storage facilities conveniently situated in the west of the country. How much gas the stores contain is unclear, and its ownership is murky—but after a mild winter there is probably a buffer of several months.该国西部地区,他们有大型油气储备设施。天然气存储到底有多少还不清楚, 其所有权也很模糊,冬季之后能撑几个月来缓冲。Moreover, Ukraine should be able to import gas from Slovakia, reversing the flow of a main east-west pipeline.此外, 乌克兰还能从斯洛伐克进口天然气,扭转一条重要的东西方管道的流动。It has twice done this on smaller pipelines during previous disputes with Russia.之前与俄罗斯发生过纠纷,他们两次就修建好了一些较小的管道。Trade is also a weapon which imposes costs on the aggressor, but an easier one to wield with precision.贸易也是一种武器, 把成本强加于侵略者,更容易而且精确行使。A quarter of Ukraines exports head east and Vladimir Putin is not shy about messing with them; Russian restrictions, like those placed on Ukrainian chocolate last year, could cost the country billions, with the losses targeted on particular sectors, even particular oligarchs.乌克兰四分之一的出口是往东方出口,弗拉基米尔普京并不羞于干扰;俄罗斯对其进行限制,去年曾搁置乌克兰出口的巧克力造成了上十亿的损失,损失针对特定的行业,甚至特定的寡头。This week Russia banned pork from Ukraine, saying political instability had undermined safety inspections.本周俄罗斯禁止从乌克兰进口猪肉,声称乌克兰的政治不稳定已经破坏了安全检查。Though Mr Putin says he wants to strengthen trade, instability is unlikely to be in short supply over the coming months.尽管普京先生表示, 他希望加强贸易,在未来的几个月不太可能出现供应不足。As a creditor, Russia has given itself room for mischievous manoeuvre.作为债权人,俄罗斯已经给自己恶意操纵的空间。The way its bail-out to Mr Yanukovych, billion of which was delivered before the revolution, was structured gives Mr Putin leverage that could scupper any attempts to reach agreements with other creditors in advance of forthcoming payments.其对亚努科维奇的纾困,革命之前, 就已给了30亿美元,普京目的是破坏乌克兰与其他债权人事先达成协议。And some fine print stipulates that if Ukraines debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 60% it would automatically be in default.一些细则规定, 如果乌克兰的债务占国民生产总值的比率超过60%, 俄罗斯可以不履行协议。Russias legal poison pills could make dealing with Ukraines debts harder at a time when they are sure to grow; without loans from the West the government will run out of money.俄罗斯的法律毒丸可以让让乌克兰因此债务交易更加困难; 但没有从西方政府贷款,钱还是会用光。If Ukraine had sensible economic policies such loans would be easily made, since the countrys current debt burden, at 47% of GDP, is not excessive.如果乌克兰有明智的经济政策, 这种贷款会很容易, 因为这个国家目前的债务负担占GDP的47%, 并不过多。But Ukraine has almost never had sensible policies; it has profligate ones, and the investors who used to support that profligacy when Ukraine offered high interest rates and a stable currency are now nowhere to be seen.但乌克兰几乎从来没有明智的政策, 挥霍无度,曾经持 挥霍的投资者们所持乌克兰的高利率和稳定的货币政策现在也不可行了。Time for the IMF, which has ample experience with this kind of balance-of-payments crisis.国际货币基金组织行动的时候了,它有足够的经验处理这种国际收平衡危机。The standard remedy includes tough reforms—in Ukraines case, a large depreciation, slashed energy subsidies and big budget cuts—in return for funds to tide the country over until it can once again borrow from private markets.规范的补救措施包括艰难的改革,对于乌克兰的这种情况, 需要一次货币大贬值, 削减能源补贴和大幅削减财政预算来换取资金,直到这个国家渡过难关, 直到能再一次实行私人市场。Ukraine probably needs billion to billion in budgetary finance to last until after the May election.乌克兰可能需要30亿美元到40亿美元财政预算将持续到5月大选之后。A larger loan of billion would allow it to meet its external financial obligations for the next year.150亿美元更大的贷款, 将可能会让其完成外部金融义务。America is keen for the IMF to negotiate a big package of loans and reforms as soon as possible, arguing that Ukraines transitional government not only needs the support, but also can make progress where others have failed.美国希望国际货币基金组织协商尽快提供大的贷款和改革方案, 认为乌克兰的过渡政府不仅需要持, 也可以在别人失败的地方取得进展。Alexander Turchinov, the interim president, has aly said he would accept all the IMFs terms, including draconian spending cuts.Alexander Turchinov临时总统已经表示, 他将接受所有国际货币基金组织的条件, 包括严厉的削减开。But many of the IMFs technocrats, and its member countries, dislike the idea of America using the fund as a geopolitical tool—worries given a bitter edge by the fact that Americas Congress recently refused to approve an expansion of the funds coffers.但国际货币基金组织的许多技术专家, 和它的成员国,不喜欢美国的想法,把基金作为地缘政治工具-担心最近美国国会拒绝批准扩大基金的资金是给定了一个痛苦的边缘。They would prefer that the IMF chip in billion, with few strings attached, under its Rapid Financing Instrument.货币基金采取快速的融资,给其10亿美元 并附加一些条件。Other short-term help is available.他们更希望国际其他短期帮助也可以。On March 5th the EU offered 1.6 billion in short-term macroeconomic assistance, as well as a lot of development aid in the longer term.3月5日欧盟提供16亿作为短期宏观经济援助, 以及大量的长期发展援助。Add in the billion loan guarantee announced by John Kerry this week and Ukraine can probably stumble along until May, at which point a newly elected government could negotiate a long-term package.约翰克里在本周宣布了10亿美元贷款担保,到5月乌克兰可能会踉跄前行 , 那时新当选的政府可以协商一个长期计划。The politics of the rescue may get harder when it becomes clear where some of the money will end up.我们很清楚,随着钱的用完,救援举措也会变得困难。Using Western taxpayers money to pay off Mr Putin or the hedge funds that bought high-yielding Ukrainian debt is an ugly prospect.用西方纳税人的钱来偿还普京或者高收益债券的对冲基金是一个丑陋的前景。So Ukraine may try to renegotiate terms with its bondholders, which would be where Mr Putins leverage could come into play.所以乌克兰可能尝试与债券持有人重新谈判合同条款, 普京也会利用杠杆作用做文章。But it would also be where a reform plan with solid Western support would yield dividends.这也将是一个西方持的改革计划,会产生红利。If Ukraines economy is being transformed and the IMF is satisfied, Russian bloody-mindedness need not slow the countrys return to the market, even if it forces a form of default.如果乌克兰的经济转变了, 国际货币基金组织对其满意, 需要俄罗斯不找茬阻碍乌克兰重返市场, 即便是它迫使违约。But if Ukraines reform commitment wobbles, Russia has room to cause yet more trouble.但如果乌克兰改革承诺一旦晃动, 俄罗斯会有机会制造更多的麻烦。 201403/283053四川大学华西第四医院鼻息肉治疗的价格 Science and technology科学技术Animal behaviour动物行为Planet of the apes猩球探秘Chimpanzees personas seem more complex than peoples猩猩的行为特征,似乎比人类还要复杂HUMAN personalities, it is widely agreed by psychologists, can be measured along five dimensions: extroversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism and openness to experience.大多数心理学家都承认人类性格特征一共可分为五个维度:外向、易相处、善于动手、神经反应和继承性。One person may be more extrovert than another, less agreeable, more conscientious and so on, and to an extent how well two people will get on can be predicted from how their personalities mesh.甲可能比乙更开朗,或者更勤劳,也可能更固执,等等;就这一点说来,两个人相处是否融洽,取决于二人性格相斥还是相吸。People who dont get on, though, have the option of avoiding each other.甲不愿意和乙共处一室,还有选择的余地。That is not true of animals in zoos.而动物园里的动物却只能逆来顺受,But they too have personalities.但是重点在于动物们也有自己的个性。So, to prevent trouble between members of one species—the chimpanzee—Hani Freeman of Lincoln Park Zoo, in Chicago, has developed a way of assessing those personalities.就拿猩猩来说,为防止其同类间发生擦,来自芝加哥林肯公园动物园的哈尼·弗里曼提出一套得以划定动物性格的方法。In doing so, she sheds an intriguing light not only on chimpanzee psychology, but also on the mental evolution of Homo sapiens.此法一经问世,就像点亮了好奇之灯,不仅照亮了黑猩猩心理学研究之路,对于现代智人心理进化探索的影响也不容小觑。As they report in the American Journal of Primatology, Dr Freeman and her colleagues started by surveying the existing literature on chimpanzee behaviour.弗里曼和她的同事将研究成果刊登在《美国灵长类动物学学术期刊》上面,其中提到他们正是基于现有有关猩猩行为表现的文献而展开探索的。This search threw up 55 terms, ranging from bold and jealous to stingy and sexual, that previous investigators had applied to aspects of chimpanzee character.之前调查人员将黑猩猩性格划分之后,得出了55个术语,包括勇敢、嫉妒、吝啬以及性别差异思维,弗里曼的研究将这55个术语高亮显示。The team then asked five experts—a mixture of scientists and zookeepers, all of whom had had years of day-to-day experiences with captive chimpanzees—to provide their own lists of terms.之后研究小组找来5位专家,其中不乏有科学家,有动物园饲养员,他们都曾与笼子中的动物朝夕相处数年之久。这五位要做的是写下他们自己认为的黑猩猩性格术语。These inquiries collected 71 suggestions, 45 of which overlapped with the 55 from the literature search.他们一共给出71个描述性词汇,其中有45个与文献总结的55个术语重叠。Finally, they compared their results with a review of chimpanzee behaviour carried out in 2008 by a different team. That comparison yielded two further terms.最后,研究小组又与2008年另一针对黑猩猩行为研究小组的结论作对比,结论不过增添了两个新术语。Once Dr Freeman had gone through the accumulated list and merged into one term any set that seemed to mean the same thing, she was left with 41 that seemed robust descriptions of chimpanzee attitudes.弗里曼曾认真研读过这一系列术语表单,然后将可以划为一类的术语总结出来。This done, she gave the list to 17 people who work with chimpanzees on a regular basis at a medical-research facility in Texas, and asked them to rate the 99 chimps there for each of the 41 characteristics.最终她留下了41个能够很犀利的描述猩猩行为的术语。归纳工作完成之后,弗里曼将41个术语的列表交给德克萨斯针对猩猩的定期健康检查研究机构,17名工作人员将用41个术语描述99个黑猩猩。She found that different people rated the same animals in the same way. That suggests their assessments were reliable.弗里曼发现即使是不同的人,对于同一批动物得出的结论仍然是相同的。She also found that scores for particular terms tended to cluster together.也就是说,他们的结论是可靠的。弗里曼还察觉到,一类特殊的词汇总是集中性的出现。A chimp that scored highly for irritability, for example, was also likely to score highly for aggression and for jealousy, and to have low scores for calmness and relaxation.比如,一只黑猩猩在易怒一栏得分较高,那么在富有攻击性和嫉妒分栏中得分也较高,相反在稳定和缓和分栏得分较低。That let her apply a statistical technique called principal-component analysis to the data, to work out the dimensions of chimpanzee personality.从而弗里曼在数据整理中获得一项称之为优先分析部分的统计技术,提高界定黑猩猩性格维度的工作效率。It is analysis of this sort which showed that human personas have five dimensions.此类分析得出的人类性格有五个维度,Chimps personas, by contrast, seem to have six.但是黑猩猩性格维度似乎却达到六个。These are extroversion, agreeableness and openness, which match human dimensions, and reactivity, dominance and methodicalness, which do not.外向、易相处和继承性这三点能够对应人类性格特征,而条件反射、统治思维和使用工具却和人类相异。Reactivity is similar to the human dimension called neuroticism, though not similar enough, in Dr Freemans view, to justify the same label.条件反射与人类的神经反应类似,但在弗里曼看来,明确性格标签情况下,相似程度是有限的。And methodicalness, which measures the way animals approach things like using tools and making the nests they sleep in, resembles conscientiousness—though Dr Freemans raters found this difficult to assess because such activities are not much available to the chimps in Texas.动物利用外物的倾向性和建造窝巢统称为使用工具,这一点和人类善于动手是类似的,尽管17位性格划分人员发现很难去评价,因为这类行为在德克萨斯的黑猩猩身上是不常发生的。But there is, intriguingly, no human dimension that resembles chimpanzee dominance.有趣的地方是最后一点,统治思维,这在人类性格维度里毫无对应点。At the moment, it is possible to do little more than speculate about what all this means.此时此刻,也应该分析分析这一切的内在意义了。From a practical point of view it shows that it is probably not a good idea to put two animals with high dominance scores in the same enclosure—a discovery that addresses the question which started the research.从现实角度看,将两只在统治思维一栏中得分较高的黑猩猩放在一个屋檐下,不甚明智,这一问题在研究初始阶段就已经提出。From a theoretical point of view it provides a way to study the mental similarities and differences between chimpanzees and humans:从理论层面看,这给对于人类和黑猩猩之间的心理相似性和差异性研究提供了机会:what, in other words, is core anthropoid behaviour, and what is species-specific.换句话说,类人猿的核心行为是什么,还有不同种类的独有特征是什么? /201311/264837重庆省妇幼保健院耳朵疾病看怎么样好不好

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新都区妇幼保健院扁桃体炎看怎么样好不好 Science and technology科学技术Meteorology气象学Counting raindrops雨量计算How to use mobile-phone networks for weather forecasting怎样利用移动手机网络预报天气FORECASTING the weather requires huge quantities of data.天气预报需要大量的数据信息。Many of these data are collected by high-tech means such as satellites and radar, and then crunched by some of the worlds fastest supercomputers into predictions that are far more accurate than they were 20 years ago.大部分数据是通过高科技产品,比如卫星和雷达收集起来,然后,由世界上运算最快的超级计算机来处理这些数据后进行预测,现在的预报已经比二十年前准确多了。But low-tech tools are important too—especially old-fashioned rain gauges, which are nothing more than tubes with funnels fixed to places such as rooftops.但是,技术层次较低的工具也同样重要—特别是老式的雨量计,其实只是把带有漏斗的量管固定在类似屋顶的位置。Each technique has its upsides and downsides.每种技术都有优缺点。Radar and satellites can cover swathes of land, yet they lack detail.雷达和卫星可以覆盖很多地带,但是缺乏细节性。Gauges are much more accurate, but the price of that accuracy is spotty coverage.相比较而言,雨量计更加准确,但是这种覆盖面准确度的价值却参差不齐。Now, though, Aart Overeem of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and his colleagues reckon they have come up with another way to keep an eye on the rain.但是,现在荷兰皇家气象研究所的阿尔特-欧维姆和他的同事们认为,他们已经提出了另一种可以监测雨量的方式。It offers, they believe, both broad coverage and fine detail.他们认为,这种方式既能够实现大范围的覆盖,又可以提供具体的细节。Best of all, it relies on something that is aly almost omnipresent—the mobile-phone network.最重要的是,这种方式所依赖的现在已经无所不在—那就是移动手机网络。Their scheme starts from the observation that rain can make it harder for certain sorts of electromagnetic radiation to travel through the atmosphere.他们提出的新方式起始于一种观测—当某些特定的电磁辐射穿越大气层时,下雨会增加穿透的难度。Measure this impedance and you can measure how rainy it is.衡量这种阻力,你就可以测试出雨量的多少。The researchers do not measure the strength of mobile-phone signals themselves.研究者并没有测量移动手机信号本身的强度。Instead, they piggyback on something that mobile networks aly do, and measure the strength of the microwave links that base stations use to talk to each other.相反,他们增加了移动网络已有的某些物质,然后测量用于双方通话基站的微波链接强度。The idea itself is not new, and there have been trials in recent years.这种方式本身并没什么新意,最近几年一直都在进行类似的试验。But, as they report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Dr Overeem and his colleagues have successfully applied the technique to an entire country.但是,就像他们向美国国家院报告中提到的,欧维姆士和他的同事已经在一个国家成功地实现了它的全国性应用。Using data from around 2,400 links between base-stations belonging to T-Mobile, one of the Netherlands three mobile-phone operators, they were able to generate a rain map of the whole kingdom every 15 minutes.通过分析荷兰三大移动运营商之一:T-Mobile所属的2,400个基站产生的数据,他们能够每十五分钟就制作出一个全国的雨量分布图。Like all the best science, the idea is both technically elegant and practically useful.就像所有最好的科学一样,这种方式在技术上很简练,而且很有实用性。Dr Overeem points out that simply coming up with another way to measure rainfall is handy by itself, since it allows better cross-checking of existing methods.欧维姆士指出,简单地用另一种方法测量雨量本身就很方便,因为这种方法可以对现有的方式进行再次核查。There are other advantages, too.这种方法也有其它方面的优势。Coverage is one.覆盖面就是其一。Even in rich countries with well-financed weather forecasters, there are likely to be far more mobile-phone base stations than rain gauges.甚至在天气预报配备方面资金充足的发达国家,移动手机基站的数量也可能远远超过雨量计的数量。That is truer still in poor countries, where rain gauges are scarce and radar often nonexistent, but mobile phones common.而这种现象在贫困国家则更加明显,在那里雨量计很稀少,往往根本没有。The GSM Association, a mobile-phone trade group, estimates that 90% of the worlds population lives within range of a base station.但是拥有移动手机却很普遍。全球移动通信系统协会—一家移动手机贸易组织—估计,全世界有90%的人口居住在基站所覆盖的范围内。Another boon is that network operators tend to keep a close eye on their microwave links.另一个福音就是网络运营商们往往都会密切关注他们的微波链接。Although the researchers were able to obtain data only every 15 minutes, some firms sample their networks once a minute.尽管研究者只需要十五分钟就能收集到数据,但是有些运营商能在一分钟内对他们的网络进行抽查。That means rainfall could, in principle, be measured almost in real time, something that neither gauges nor radar nor satellites can manage.从原理上来讲,那就是说雨量可以进行实时测量,而这点是雨量计,雷达或者卫星都无法做到的。The technology is not perfect: snow and hail are harder than rain for microwaves to spot, for example.这种技术也不是完美无缺的:比如,相比较下雨,要想在下雪和冰雹时探测到微波的可能性更小。And there are other caveats.而且还有些其它注意事项。Mobile networks are densest in urban areas, which are also the places most likely to have meteorological equipment aly.城镇地区是移动网络最密集的,而那里也是最有可能已经配备了气象设备的地区。Even in the rich, urbanised Netherlands, coverage outside cities was noticeably patchier.甚至在富有的,城镇化的荷兰,城市外移动网络的覆盖也是零星点点。But that might eventually prove to be a boon, for if the technology becomes widesp then weather forecasters might contribute to the cost of installing base stations in coverage blackspots.但是,这可能最终也会转为有利条件,因为,如果这种技术能够被广泛应用的话,那时天气预报可能会对在无覆盖地区安装基站有所帮助。something for which the 10% of humanity not yet within range of a mobile-phone mast might be thankful.而那些至今还未生活在移动电话覆盖区域中的10%的人可能会对此心存感激的。 /201309/258155重医附一院中耳炎怎么样重庆医科大学附属第二医院腺样体肥大要多少钱



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