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2018年10月23日 11:07:08|来源:国际在线|编辑:医护问答
With the countdown clock winding down in the latest round of talks over Iran’s nuclear program, the top U.S. and Iranian diplomats began another meeting in Vienna Sunday evening, possibly pushing the announcement of a final deal to Monday.随着最后一轮伊朗核谈判最后期限的倒计时钟声即将敲响,美国和伊朗高级外交官员星期天晚间在维也纳开始了又一次会晤,可能在努力推动星期一宣布达成一项最终的核协议。A senior U.S. State Department official warned that ;major issues; remain to be resolved in the talks, and Iranian foreign affairs official Alireza Miryousefi called a Sunday announcement of the 100-page accord “simply logistically impossible美国国务院一名高级官员警告说,谈判中仍然需要解决一些“重大议题”,伊朗外交官员阿里雷札称星期天宣布的一00页的协定“从逻辑上根本不可能”。The Associated Press first reported that the announcement would be made Monday.美联社首先报道说,达成协议的声明将在星期一宣布。Among other disagreements, the sides are split over a U.N. arms embargo on Iran, which Western powers want to keep in place.其它意见不一的方面包括,各方对是否解除联合国对伊朗武器禁运的问题意见分歧。西方大国希望继续保持禁运。EU Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini, who is also part of the talks, said Sunday morning negotiators were in the ;decisive hours.;参加核谈判的欧盟外交政策主管莫盖里尼星期天早晨表示,谈判代表正处于“决定性的时刻”。The foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany were also in Vienna. It remains unclear when China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, will rejoin negotiations in person.现在六大国当中除了中国外长之外,都已经会聚维也纳。目前还不清楚中国外长王毅是否会再次亲自参加谈判。来 /201507/385247A few days after the assault on Paris, it is hard to name the businesses that were singled out by the terrorists. The public venues the Bataclan theatre and the Stade de France are memorable. The cafés and bars of eastern Paris Le Carillon, Comptoir Voltaire, La Belle Equipe were not symbolic in themselves. They were simply places for people to gather.巴黎袭击事件几天之后,人们很难说出恐怖分子专挑哪些商家作案。巴塔克兰剧Bataclan theatre)和法兰西体育Stade de France)这些公共场所是有纪念意义的场所。至于Le Carillon、Comptoir Voltaire和La Belle Equipe这些巴黎东部的咖啡馆和酒吧,本身并不具有象征意义。它们只是人们聚会的场所。Nor, despite the terrible bloodshed, have the attacks had a deep physical impact on the fabric of the city. There are broken windows and some bomb damage but Paris otherwise survives largely as before. In terms of disrupting physical infrastructure or the economy the energy supplies, communications and supply chains of France Isis might as well not have bothered.而且,尽管发生了可怕的杀戮事件,这些袭击对这座城市的实体样貌也没有产生深刻影响。确实出现了诸多破碎的窗户及一些炸弹破坏的痕迹,然而巴黎在很大程度上一如往昔。要说破坏实体基础设施或经济(比如法国的能源供应、通信及供应链条),“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国ISIS)可能也没有这种心思。Al-Qaeda’s transnational operating model has been compared with global franchising: its brand is adopted by semi-independent groups that organise and carry out their own attacks.基地组织(al-Qaeda)的跨国运作模式,曾被拿来与全球特许经营模式相比较:其品牌被半独立的组织采用,后者会组织和实施自己的恐怖袭击。To judge by Paris, Isis prefers to outsource. From its supply chain of military-grade weapons to cross-border planning of explosions, it is a multi-national. “Designed in Syria. Manufactured in Belgiumcould be its slogan. Yet the economic impact of Islamist terrorists, who are obsessed with causing as many deaths as possible, is usually minimal apart from on tourism and travel. The attacks of September 11 2001 had little long-term effect after the initial bn [OR BN?]of damage. The 2008 financial crisis and the 2011 Japanese earthquake, which disrupted global supply chains, were more powerful.从巴黎的情形看,ISIS宁愿采取外包的方式。从其军用级武器的供应链条,再到爆炸事件的跨境策划,都说明它是个跨国组织。它的口号或许是“叙利亚设计,比利时制造”。然而,尽管伊斯兰恐怖分子执迷于制造尽可能多的死亡,除了旅游观光以外,他们对经济的影响通常很小。比如,在起初的900亿美元损失之后,20011日的恐怖袭击几乎没导致什么长期影响。相比之下,2008年金融危机和2011年日本的地震则破坏了全球供应链条,它们的影响更大一些。The Paris death toll was high but its financial reach was less even than an accidental explosion at a German chemical plant in 2012. That killed two workers and halted the production of a resin used in brake and fuel parts, which in turn inflicted supply shortages on US and European carmakers.巴黎事件的死亡人数很高,但是其在经济上的影响甚至还不012年德国一家化工厂的爆炸事故。那次事故导致两名员工丧生,并造成一种用于刹车部件和燃料部件的树脂停产,这又导致了欧美汽车制造商的供应短缺。For this reason alone, French President Hollande’s talk of war on Isis is misguided. Isis has formed a state within Syria and Iraq by controlling the oil industry inside its territories, but its cross-border brand of terrorism is not warlike. Killing people is terrifying but is insufficient in war: you must destroy infrastructure and degrade supplies, as the Nazis did in the 1940s by bombing the east London docks.只从这个意义上说,法国总统弗朗索瓦攠朗 Hollande)有关ISIS战争行为的说法有误导性。通过控制其领地内的石油产业,ISIS在叙利亚和伊拉克内建立了一个国家,然而其跨境恐怖主义活动的模式却不像战争。杀害平民是很恐怖,但还不足以看作战争:只有像纳粹在1940年代轰炸伦敦东部码头那样,破坏对方基础设施并消解其供应链条才算是战争行为。Islamist terrorism, which in the mid-1990s overtook leftist forms of insurrection in which industries and business leaders were often primary targets, does not do that[EVEN EG LIBYAN MILITANTS DESTROYING OIL WELLS?]. It attempts to encourage a clash of civilisations by fomenting terror in what Isis calls “the grey zonethe millions of people who do not want to be trapped in a caliphate and prefer to enjoy their liberty elsewhere. Beneath the scathing rhetoric about “targeting the capital of prostitution and vicein Paris, Isis recognises a reality: that it would like to destroy the French economy but it cannot.伊斯兰恐怖主义并不存在上述行为990年代中期,它的影响力超过了左派组织的暴动形式,后者往往以行业和企业领导人为主要目标。伊斯兰恐怖主义试图通过在被ISIS称为“灰色地带”的人群(指那些不想深陷哈里发之中、更愿意在其他地方享受自由的无数人们)中引发恐怖,煽动起一种文明的冲突。在所谓“以(巴黎这个)淫荡和邪恶之都为目标”的尖刻措辞之下,ISIS承认了这样一个现实:它想要破坏法国经济却无法做到。As Todd Sandler, a professor at the University of Texas who studies the economic effects of terrorism, says: “They can scare the heck out of us but they do not seem to have much economic impact.”正如研究恐怖主义经济影响的德克萨斯大学(University of Texas)教授托德儠德Todd Sandler)所说的:“它们能把我们吓得魂不附体,但似乎不会产生多少经济上的影响。”It is partly a matter of scale. Most terrorist attacks, even those in Paris, are small and localised: if you do not happen to be nearby at the time, you are not in danger. It also reflects the resilience of diversified modern economies. There are some choke points in power and communications infrastructure but most are well guarded the soft terrorist targets are less financially critical.这在一定程度上是规模的问题。多数恐怖袭击——即使是巴黎发生的恐怖袭击——规模都很小,范围也局限在当地:只要你不是碰巧当时在附近,你就不会遇到危险。此外,它还反映了多元化现代经济的强韧性。电力和通信基础设施中存在一些咽喉点,不过它们中的多数都受到了严密防卫,而防卫松懈的恐袭目标则在经济上没有那么重要。“Companies may suffer but industries as a whole are very robust,says Yossi Sheffi, professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In order to create long-term damage, terrorism has to be sustained, focused and targeted at a small area. The output of Spain’s Basque region was estimated to have been reduced by 10 percentage points by a 20-year separatist campaign much of it, unlike with Islamist terrorism, aimed at industrial targets.麻省理工学院(MIT)教授约西∠菲(Yossi Sheffi)表示:“企业也许会受到影响,行业整体则是十分健壮的。”要想产生长期破坏,恐怖主义者必须长期持续、集中精力、并把目标集中于小范围内。据估计,为0年的分裂运动令西班牙巴斯克区的产出减少了10%。而与伊斯兰恐怖主义活动不同,这些分裂分子的活动中许多都对准了工业目标。The Paris attacks may dent France’s economy and those of other European countries if governments respond as some are threatening to by reinstating border controls and weakening the Schengen agreement that allows free movement of people and goods. Citigroup economists warned this week of “a growing backlash against a key element of globalisation对于巴黎的恐怖袭击,若各国政府的回应是恢复边境管制并弱化允许人员与商品自由迁移的申根协定——就像部分政府威胁的那样,那么它也许会影响法国以及其他欧洲国家的经济。就在本周,花旗集团(Citigroup)经济学家警告“全球化一个关键要素遭到越来越大的反对”。Isis would welcome it as an economic side effect of its religious offensive but it is not a given. Attacks such as that on the World Trade Center and the Madrid train bombings of 2004 did not curtail growth in global trade. The damping of trade growth, which dropped to 3 per cent in 2013 compared with an average of 7.1 per cent growth between 1987 and 2007, has other causes.ISIS或许会欢迎其宗教攻势在经济上的副作用,但是这种副作用并不是确定无疑的。类似对世贸中心(WTC)的袭击和2004年马德里火车爆炸案那样的袭击事件,并未削弱全球贸易的增长。全球贸易增长率987年到2007年期间的平均7.1%跌至2013年的3%别有原因。The most significant, according to one International Monetary Fund study, is a levelling in supply chain fragmentation and the “back and forthof industrial components after a prolonged growth in outsourcing of US and European manufacturing to China and Asia. Globalisation paused not because of terrorism or trade protectionism but because it had reached limits.根据一项国际货币基金组IMF)的研究,最重要的原因是在欧美制造业向中国和亚洲的外包经历长期增长之后,分散的供应链以及工业部件的“来来往往”进入平台期。全球化暂时停顿,不是由于恐怖主义或贸易保护主义,而是由于全球化已达到极限。Terrorism has its own logic. It fosters fear far in excess of the danger it presents and is a marketing campaign for recruits. It does what its planners want. But set against natural events such as earthquakes, and the ebb and flow of industry and trade, even large attacks are economically minor.恐怖主义有自身的运作逻辑。它激起的恐惧远远超过它所带来的危险,它也是一种招募新人的营销手段。它的策划者想要的正是这些。不过,如果和地震等自然灾害、以及工业和贸易的潮起潮落比起来,即使是大规模的恐怖袭击,经济上的影响也是微不足道的。It is hard to keep in mind when faced with atrocities but it is the reality. Many Parisians fell but Paris stands.面临暴行的时候人们很难这么去想,但现实就是这样。暴行让许多倒下了,而巴黎却依然屹立不倒。来 /201511/411680

China is imposing a 0bn municipal-bonds-for-debt swap on banks in a bid to shift some of the financing costs of cash-strapped local governments back to lenders, local media reported on Wednesday.据中国国内媒体周三报道,中国正在让用1600亿美元的地方政府债券置换存量债务,以便将现金短缺的地方政府的部分融资成本转嫁回手中。Ballooning debts at municipalities estimated at .9bn by mid-2013 as local governments engaged in a frenzy of debt-fuelled infrastructure building have emerged as one of the fault lines in China’s economy as growth slows and property prices dip.随着增长放缓及楼市价格下跌,地方政府不断增大的债务已日益成为中国经济的断层线(fault line,取自《断层线》一书,借用地质学概念形容金融危机的源头——译者注)之一。截013年中,中国地方政府的债务估计9万亿美元。当时,各地方政府开展了一轮靠债务驱动的疯狂的基础建设。Beijing is seeking to limit debt servicing costs for municipalities by obliging banks to switch out loans, which frequently carry interest rates over 7 per cent, in return for municipal bonds with a capped coupon.中国政府正试图通过强制将贷款换成地方政府债券,限制地方政府的偿债成本。贷款的利率通常%以上,而地方债券的折扣却有上限。The swap will crimp banksincome, but the central bank will cushion the blow by accepting municipal bonds as collateral for key lending facilities through which it provides liquidity to commercial lenders.这种置换过程会影响的收入。不过,中国央行(PBoC)将通过接受地方债券作为抵押品,缓冲由此带来的冲击。这类抵押品可用在关键的贷款机制当中,央行会通过这类贷款机制,向商业提供流动性。The debt swap will also avoid public bond auctions that had threatened to drain Rmb1tn (0bn) in liquidity from the financial system and expose lacklustre demand for municipal paper.这次债务置换也将避免公开拍卖债券。公开拍卖债券可能会耗去1万亿元人民币(合1600亿美元)的流动性,并暴露出地方债券需求疲软的问题。Instead, the swap will occur through bilateral negotiations between localities and individual creditors, the central bank, finance ministry, and bank regulator said in jointly issued guidelines obtained by Sina Finance.相反,根据新浪财Sina Finance)所获的中国央行、财政部和银监会共同下发的指导意见,置换过程会通过地方财政部门与特定债权人间的双边协商展开。The reduction in credit risk will mitigate the negative impact on banksbottom lines, analysts said.分析师表示,信用风险的降低将缓解对盈利的负面影响。“Although banksearnings will be hurt by the lower yields of bonds (relative to higher interest on loans), we believe the market will value banksgain in risk reduction and liquidity over their loss in interest revenue,wrote Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS.瑞士(UBS)首席中国问题经济学家汪涛写道:“在我们看来,虽然利息收益可能会有所降低,但将受益于风险资产规模下降、资本充足率提高、流动性提高,以及资产质量改善。”China’s finance ministry in March revealed a plan for provincial governments to refinance Rmb1tn in debt due to mature this year by issuing municipal bonds. The goal is to lower debt-servicing costs and extend maturities by converting short-term loans to long-term bonds.今年3月,中国财政部披露了一项计划,要求各省政府通过发行地方债券,为今年到期万亿元人民币债务再融资。该计划的目标,是通过将短期贷款转换成长期债券,降低偿债成本并延长还款期。But the plan hit a snag last month when two provincial governments were forced to postpone bond auctions in the face of weak demand from banks, who balked at the low yields.然而上个月这一计划却遭遇了小小的挫折。当时,由于对过低收益率不满而导致的需求疲软,两个省政府被迫推迟债券拍卖。The latest rules say that the new local bonds must not carry yields of more than 30 per cent above prevailing yields on Chinese central government bonds with matching maturities. Chinese treasuries yield 3.2 to 3.5 per cent for maturities of one to 10 years.最新规定表示,新地方债收益率上限不得高于发行日前1个工作日相同待偿期记账式国债收益率平均值上浮的30%。目前,中国10年期的国债收益率.2%.5%之间。The yield cap will not apply to the Rmb600bn in new local bonds that will be auctioned this year outside the debt swap program.对于此次地方债务置换计划以外拍卖000亿人民币的新发行地方债券,这一收益率上限并不适用。Beyond the issue of yields, market watchers were also concerned that Rmb1tn in new bonds, if sold in the open market, would suck liquidity out of China’s financial system, choking off the flow of funds to other borrowers.除了收益率的问题,市场观察人士还关注这样一个问题:1万亿元人民币的新债券,一旦在公开市场出售,会吸收中国金融体系中的流动性,从而阻碍资金流向其他借款方。Under the latest guidelines local governments will negotiate directly with individual creditors to swap maturing loans for newly issued bonds. As such, no cash payments will change hands so liquidity will be unaffected.根据最新的指导意见,地方政府将直接与特定债权人协商,将到期贷款置换成新发行债券。这样,置换过程中不会涉及现金换手,从而让流动性不受影响。Private placements will be used to refinance bank loans as well as maturing debt from non-bank financial institutions like trust companies, securities brokerages and insurers, the guidance said.该指导意见还表示,这种定向承销方式除了可用于贷款的再融资,还可用于信托、券、保险等非类金融机构的再融资。来 /201505/375061

Thailand is reeling from its deadliest violence since last year’s military coup, after an explosion in Bangkok’s main shopping zone killed at least 22 people yesterday and left scores more wounded.泰国正受到自去年军事政变以来最致命的一起暴力事件的不利影响。昨日,曼谷主要购物区发生了爆炸,造成至少22人死亡、上百人受伤。Police said a bomb detonated at the Erawan shrine in the Ratchaprasong district early in the evening, causing carnage in an area popular with both Thais and tourists.警方表示,傍晚一枚炸弹在拉查帕森(Ratchaprasong)购物区的四面Erawan shrine)被引爆,在这个深受泰国人和游客喜爱的地区造成大量伤亡。There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack. It comes against a backdrop of rising political tensions in Thailand, but still came as a shock after a period of relative calm during which the military kept a tight grip on internal security.没有任何人立即宣布对这起袭击事件负责。爆炸发生在泰国政治紧张局势升温的背景之下,但在军方对内部安全保持严密控制的相对平静时期之后,还是令人们深感意外。Lieutenant Prawut Thawornsiri, a police spokesman, said 22 people had died and another 123 were injured. Reports suggested foreigners accounted for as many as eight of the dead and many more of the wounded. Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported that three Chinese nationals had been killed by the bomb.警方发言人普拉武他翁西里(Prawut Thawornsiri)中尉表示,事故造成22人丧生,123人受伤。据报道,多名外国人在爆炸中丧生,还有更多的外国人因爆炸而受伤。据中国官方通讯社新华社(Xinhua)报道,这枚炸弹造成3名中国公民丧生。While social media crackled with competing theories over who might be responsible, there was no immediate evidence to point in any direction.尽管社交媒体上充满了有关谁可能是幕后凶手的各种猜测,但并未发现指向任何方向的直接据。Thai Buddhists and visitors from China and elsewhere in Asia throng to the Erawan shrine, while the surrounding district of offices, shopping malls and upmarket hotels is also frequented by westerners.四面佛是泰国佛教徒以及来自中国和亚洲其他地区的游客蜂拥而至的地方,而周围的写字楼、购物中心和高档酒店区也是西方人经常光顾的地方。Mysterious blasts have occurred in Bangkok and elsewhere in Thailand since the military coup in May last year, although none caused anything like the destruction of yesterday’s attack.自去月的军事政变以来,曼谷和泰国各地发生了多起神秘的爆炸,尽管没有一起爆炸的破坏力达到昨日攻击的程度。Muslim separatist insurgents in south Thailand have used car bombs in the past, but they generally stage attacks in their own region.过去,泰国南部穆斯林分裂主义叛乱分子使用了汽车炸弹,但他们一般在自己所在地区发起攻击。The latest attack will add to anxiety in Thailand as a complex political power struggle plays out ahead of the succession to King Bhumibol Adulyadej, the ailing monarch of more than 69 years. The Ratchaprasong area is a longstanding venue for political protests in the capital as well as a symbol of the international pull of Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy.在泰国国王普密蓬阿杜King Bhumibol Adulyadej)移交王位之前,一场复杂的政治权力斗争拉开了帷幕,最近这起袭击事件将增加泰国的焦虑情绪。如今,患病在身的普密蓬已在位9年。长期以来,拉查帕森地区一直是曼谷政治抗议活动的爆发地,也是这个东南亚第二大经济体国际吸引力的一个标志。Political violence killed almost 30 people during the more than six months of anti-government protests that preceded the coup.在政变之前个月的反政府抗议中,政治暴力活动曾导致近30人死亡。来 /201508/393792

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