赣南医学院附属第一医院韩式三点多少钱赶集信息

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原标题: 赣南医学院附属第一医院韩式三点多少钱管口碑
Science and Technology A not-so-hard graft科技 一个不那么难的移植Transplantable blood vessels can now be grown as desired可移植的血管现可随意培育Medical technology医学技术ANOTHER advance in the emerging technology of regenerative medicine has just been announced.新兴再生医学技术的又一项进展刚刚被公布。It should soon be possible to make blood vessels that can be stored and used ;off the shelf; for surgery that requires arteries or veins to be bypassed.该项技术应该不久就可能制造血管,这种血管可以储存,需要进行绕过动静脉的外科手术时可以;现货供应;。The vessels, prototypes of which are described this week in a paper in Science Translational Medicine, are made by Humacyte, a small firm based in Durham, North Carolina, that was founded by Shannon Dahl, the papers principal author, and two colleagues.本周《科学转化医学》上的一篇论文描述了这种血管的原型,它是由北卡罗来纳州达勒姆的一家小公司Humacyte制造的,而公司的创立者为该论文的主要作者夏伦?达尔和其两位同事。The recipe Dr Dahl and her colleagues concocted begins with smooth-muscle cells. Smooth muscle is different from the familiar sort that cloaks bones and enables bodily movement. It is a component of organs such as the gut and the blood vessels that sometimes need to change shape while they are functioning.达尔士及其同事的制做方法是由平滑肌细胞开始。平滑肌不同于我们熟悉的那种包覆骨骼并使身体运动的肌肉。它是肠道和血管等器官的组成部分,这些器官有时需要改变形状才能行使功能。To make artificial blood vessels the team took smooth-muscle cells from fresh corpses and cultured them on tubular scaffolds made of a material called polyglycolic acid. Grown this way, smooth muscle secretes collagen, a structural protein that is, among several other things in the body, an important component of the walls of blood vessels. The polyglycolic acid degrades spontaneously over the course of a few weeks with the consequence that it is, in effect, replaced by the collagen. The result is a tube of the length and diameter of the original scaffold, that is composed of collagen and smooth-muscle cells—a structure similar to a natural blood vessel.为了制造人造血管,这个小组从新鲜尸体上采集平滑肌细胞,将其放在聚羟基乙酸材料制成的管式架上培养。采取这种方式生长,平滑肌可分泌胶原,一种结构蛋白,是人体中除其它几种物质外组成血管壁的重要成分。聚羟基乙酸在几个星期内自发降解,实际结果就是被胶原蛋白取代了。所得物保持原来架的长度和直径,由胶原蛋白和平滑肌细胞组成,其结构类似天然血管。Transplanting that into a patient, however, would risk provoking an immune reaction, since the muscle cells are ;foreign; tissue. To get around this, Dr Dahl and her colleagues wash the muscle cells away with a detergent, leaving just the collagen. Though the end product is a nonliving simulacrum of a blood vessel rather than an artificial version of the real, biologically active thing, experiments on animals suggest that it works well enough to substitute for a diseased natural vessel (for example, a clogged coronary artery that might otherwise cause a heart attack). It can also act as a ;tap; from which the blood of people whose kidneys have failed might be drawn for dialysis.不过将其移植到患者身上会有引发免疫反应的风险,因为人造血管上的肌肉细胞是;外来;组织。为了避免这个问题,达尔士和其同事用洗涤剂洗去这些肌肉细胞,只留下胶原蛋白。虽然最终产品是无生命的模拟血管,而不是真正的、具有生物活性的人造血管,但是动物实验表明,它足以代替患病的天然血管(例如,冠状动脉,阻塞的血管可能导致心脏病发作)。它也可以充当肾病患者;龙头;,引出患者的血液进行透析。At the moment, the optons for either of these things are limited. The best approach is to use a length of vessel taken from elsewhere in the patients body (commonly, his leg). But that requires such transplants to be healthy themselves—and each length of transplanted vessel can be used only once. Synthetic vessels made of Teflon exist, but they are prone to infection and blockage by blood clots, and tend to work for only a few months.目前,适合这些用途的任一用途的血管选择都很有限。最好的方法就是采用来自病患身体其它部位(通常为腿部)的一段血管。但这要求这样的移植对患者无害,而且每根移植的血管只能使用一次。现已存在聚四氟乙烯制成的人造血管,但它们很容易感染和形成血栓,且往往只能起几个月的作用。The animal experiments suggest the new, all-collagen vessels are capable of lasting at least a year without noticeable deterioration. They are also, once implanted, able to remodel themselves in ways that improve their function—changing shape in response to blood flow, being colonised by cells from the patients body, and showing signs of incorporating elastin, another structural protein found in natural vessels.动物实验表明,新型全胶原蛋白的血管有能力至少维持一年而没有明显恶化。一旦植入,它们也能按照提高其功能的方式自我改造——针对血流改变形状,让病患的身体细胞在其上生长,并显示出混合了天然血管中发现的另一个结构蛋白弹性蛋白的迹象。Also, if kept in a suitable saline buffer at 4°C, they can be transplanted a year after they were made without a perceptible degradation of their properties. So, if human trials confirm these results, the surgical-repairers toolkit will have acquired a useful additional instrument—and the age of the cyborg will be just that little bit nearer.此外,如果保存在4 ° C合适的盐水缓冲液中,它们可以在制成一年后被移植,而没有可察觉的性能退化。所以,如果人体试验实了这些结果,外科修复师的工具包就会增添一个有用的额外工具,且生控体系统时代的来临就又接近了一点点。 /201301/219747

Science and Technology科技Combating addiction打擊毒瘾Can a vaccine stop drug abuse?疫苗能阻止药物滥用吗?It may be possible to vaccinate people against addictive drugs人们也许能通过疫苗来阻止成瘾药物的使用THE idea of vaccinating drug addicts against their affliction is an intriguing one.对药物滥用者进行免疫来对抗他们受到的折磨是一个吸引人的课题。In principle, it should not be too hard.原理上,这应该不会太难。The immune system works, in part, by making antibodies that are specific to particular sorts of hostile molecule.免疫系统可以部分参与产生那些针对某些有害分子的抗体。Such antibodies recognise and attach themselves to these molecules, rendering them harmless.这些抗体可以识别并与那些有害分子结合,使他们变成对身体无害的物质。Vaccines work by presenting the immune system with novel targets, so that it can learn to react to them if it comes across them again.疫苗则是通过向免疫系统提供新的靶物质的方法起作用的,因此当免疫系统再次遇到这些物质时,它就会知道该如何作出反应。The problem is that the molecules antibodies recognise and react to are the big ones, such as proteins, that are characteristic of bacteria, viruses and other infectious agents.问题是抗体能识别和做出反应的分子是大分子,比如蛋白质,这是细菌,病毒和其他致病原的特征。Small molecules, such as drugs, go unnoticed.小分子,如毒品,就不被识别了。But not for much longer, if Kim Janda of the Scripps Research Institute in San Diego has his way.如果位于圣迭戈斯克里普斯研究所的金-简达有解决办法的话,这种情况就能结束了。In a paper just published in the Journal of the American Chemical Society, Dr Janda and his colleagues suggest how a vaccine against methamphetamine, a popular street drug, might be made.在刚出版的一期《美国化学会会志》中,简达士在一篇论文中指出了一种对抗街上常见药--甲基苯丙胺的疫苗可以被合成的方法。If their method works, it would open the possibility of vaccinating people against other drugs, too.如果他们的方法凑效的话,那将使给人们注射疫苗来对抗其他药物成瘾成为可能。The idea of a methamphetamine vaccine is not new.甲基苯丙胺疫苗的想法并非什么新鲜事。The problem is getting the immune system to pay attention to a molecule that is such a small target.问题在于要使免疫系统对如此小的目标做出反应。The way that has been tried in the past is to build the vaccine from several components.之前曾尝试过的方法是利用几种物质共同构建疫苗。First, there is a large carrier protein that forms a platform for the target.首先,要有一个大的载体蛋白来构成给靶物质的平台。Then there is the target itself, a set of smaller molecules called haptens that are attached to the carrier.然后是与载体结合的靶物质本身,他们是一组叫做半抗原的较小的分子。These may either be the drug in question or some analogue of it that, for one reason or another, is reckoned to have a better chance of training the immune system.这些小分子可以是目标药物或其它一些类似物,他们有这样或那样的理由被认为能够更好地锻炼免疫系统。Finally, there is a chemical cocktail called an adjuvant that helps get the immune system to pay attention to the carrier protein and the haptens.最后,有一种叫做佐药的鸡尾酒帮助免疫系统对载体蛋白和半抗原做出反应。Dr Janda noticed that past experiments on methamphetamine vaccines had all revolved around tweaking either the carrier protein or the adjuvant, rather than tinkering with the haptens.简达士意识到过去对甲基苯丙胺的实验中,疫苗一直在周旋,使载体蛋白或佐药发生扭曲,而非与半抗原互补。He thought he might be able to change that, on the basis of work he had carried out previously, trying to design a vaccine against nicotine.他觉得基于之前所展开的工作,他有能力改善那种情况,并尝试设计出一种对抗尼古丁的疫苗。In particular, nicotine is a highly flexible molecule.尼古丁是一种尤其高活性的分子。That makes it hard for the immune system to recognise.这使得免疫系统难以识别它。To overcome this, his team on the nicotine project had to work out how to fix their haptens to the carrier protein in a way that rendered them less capable of twisting and turning, and thus made them easier for the immune system to identify.为了克这个问题,他的尼古丁项目的团队必须使他们的半抗原以一种特定方式与载体蛋白结合,从而使得这些蛋白不易扭曲反转,从而让免疫系统更容易识别。In the new study, Dr Janda and his colleagues report that they have performed a similar trick with methamphetamine haptens.在一篇新的研究中,简达士和他的同事指出他们用类似的方法处理甲基苯丙胺半抗原。They used computer models to visualise the haptens in three dimensions and thus work out how the molecules could be rearranged such that they could not spring, twist or turn when being examined by the immune system.他们利用电脑模型来展现三维半抗原并解决了分子重新排布的问题,使他们在免疫系统检查时无法弹出,扭曲,旋转。In light of this information they designed six new methamphetamine-like在该办法的启发下,他们设计出6种新的甲基苯丙胺样的半抗原。Once built, they attached the new hapten molecules to carrier proteins, mixed them with adjuvant, injected the results into mice and waited.一旦构建完成,他们把这些新的半抗原分子结合到载体蛋白上,并与佐药混合,注射进小鼠体内,等待结果。After several weeks they tested the mice to see if the animals blood contained antibodies to methamphetamine.数周后他们检测小鼠血液内是否含有甲基苯丙胺的抗体。Of the six new haptens, three successfully provoked the mice to make such antibodies.在6种新的半抗原中,其中3种成功刺激小鼠产生这些抗体。As a bonus, one of those three also stimulated the production of antibodies against another widely used drug, amphetamine.另外有一个意外收获,在那3种当中有一种可刺激产生另一种广泛使用的药物--苯丙安的抗体。That is still a long way from providing a working vaccine, but it is an important step forward.虽然距离能够供应疫苗的日子还有很长一段路要走,但这是前进中重要的一步。And if human immune systems react in the same way to the new vaccines as murine ones do, the day when a drug addict might be offered vaccination rather than opprobrium will have come a little closer.如果人类免疫系统对新疫苗的反应机制就像鼠科动物那样的话,药物成瘾的人获得的是疫苗而非外界辱骂的这一天的来临就更近了。 /201211/209081

Business The revival of independent film Scripts, not effects商业 独立电影的复兴 剧本是关键,资金不成问题Independent films are at last recovering from the slump最终,独立电影在走出低谷THE Toronto film festival, which ends this week, marks the start of the serious-film season. Out—at least until Thanksgiving, in late November—go the superhero spectaculars. In come the foreign films and the dining-room dramas. The autumn crop is far more prone to failure than the summer one. But highbrow films now come with higher hopes.本周结束的多伦多电影节,标志着严肃题材电影季节拉开了帷幕。依靠超级英雄来取票房的电影至少要持续播映到十一月末的感恩节。外国电影和文艺影片将走向舞台。可以预计的是秋季票房收入比夏季还要惨淡。但高格调电影迎来了更高的期许。For the past few years the independent film business has resembled a low-budget horror movie. Outside financing was brutally killed in 2008, as banks stopped lending. Three of the six major studios axed subsidiaries that had specialised in buying independent films. Consumers struck another blow by switching from buying DVDs to renting them.过去几年间,独立电影产业的遭遇堪于一部低成本恐怖电影并论。随着停止给提供贷款,在2008年,外界融资渠道也中断了。六大电影工作室中的三个停止了之前专门购买独立电影的子公司。消费者接着又补上一记重拳,他们开始租赁光碟而不再购买DVD了。Yet sales at film festivals this year have been brisk. New buyers such as CBS Films and Open Road Films have emerged to replace the departed studios. The larger independent outfits have steadied. The Weinstein Company, which almost collapsed two years ago, is basking in the success of ;The Kings Speech; (pictured). Lionsgate has shaken off an activist investor, Carl Icahn, who had argued it should get out of film production. Summit Entertainment, maker of the popular ;Twilight; films, closed a large financing deal in March.然而,今年各个电影节的影片销售却一路高歌猛进。新的买家如CBS和Open Road Films公司开始取代离开此领域的工作室。更大规模的独立摄制组运作也趋于平稳。两年前处于破产边缘的韦恩斯坦公司,依靠着《国王的演讲》,咸鱼翻身。狮门公司摆脱了它那位激进的投资商卡尔?伊坎,他曾主张狮门公司应该关闭其电影业务。《暮色》系列电影的制造商,顶峰公司在三月拒绝了一笔数额巨大的收购提议,决定不出售公司。It helps that films have become cheaper to make. Actors salaries remain depressed, and indies have become expert at exploiting competition between states and countries, which lavish subsidies on them. Most important, says Morris Ruskin, the head of Shoreline Entertainment, a glut of films commissioned in the era of loose credit has at last worked its way through the pipeline. ;Weve gone from a market that was saturated with films to a market that is hungry for them,; he says.电影制作成本的下降对独立电影业的发展有着推波助澜的效果。演员们的薪水依然不高,各独立电影制作公司精于利用州与州,国与国之间的竞争关系,从中获取慷慨的补助。海岸的老板 莫里斯.若斯金表示,最重要的是,信贷宽松时期充斥着被委托制作的电影,如今终于熬出头了。他谈到:;那个供应饱和的市场已经远去,现在市场对电影变得趋之若鹜。;The post-financial-crisis independent film business is both more independent and more focused on film than before. The three major studios that got out of indie films—Disney, Paramount and Warner Bros—have not returned and are concentrating on a few expensive blockbusters. And the collapse of DVD sales means it is more important to drive people to cinemas. Richard Abramowitz, who is distributing the racing film ;Senna; in America, says the sp of Blu-ray cinema projectors has cut costs dramatically.后金融危机的独立电影业较之以往,即更为独立,也更注重电影本身。退出独立电影行列的三大电影工作室——迪斯尼、派拉蒙和华纳兄弟——并没有重返独立电影业,而是将重心放在了花费高昂的大成本影片当中。光盘销售业的凋零使得把观众请到电影院变得尤为重要。正在负责赛车题材电影《塞纳》营销工作的理查德?阿布拉莫威茨谈到,蓝光播放器的普及使得其制造成本大大降低了。The business is more international, too. Roman Polanskis latest film, ;Carnage;, was financed by Europeans, with American distribution added almost as an after-thought. Total sales of cinema tickets fell slightly in America last year. But they were up in Europe, and soared in Russia. Talky dramas are harder to export than cartoons or action flicks, which is partly why the major studios now concentrate on such things. But independent horror films sometimes travel well.独立电影业也更趋于国际化。罗曼波兰斯基的最新力作《杀戮》由欧洲电影公司投资。美国的发行商随后也加入进来,虽然有马后炮的嫌疑。去年,美国电影的总票房收入略有下降。但在欧洲电影票房喜人,在俄罗斯则称的上是一路飙升。对话比重多的电影比卡通片和动作片出口要困难,这部分说明了为何现在大的电影巨头把后两者视为重心。但独立电影业出品的恐怖电影有时在海外票房堪佳。It is still a harsh business. No fewer than 3,812 full-length movies were submitted to the 2011 Sundance film festival. Yet only 550 films open in American cinemas each year, and most lose money. The business runs on hope. But there is, finally, enough money to keep the projectors running.电影业的竞争依旧激励。多达3812部长篇电影提交参审2011年的圣丹斯电影节。然而美国影院每年放映影片的数量却只有550部,大部分电影的投资打了水漂。独立电影业前景看好,发展显著。但说到底,是足够的资金持着拍摄项目的运作。 /201301/219741Finance and Economics;Man and machine;财经;投资人与经济机器;The economic ideas of the worlds most successful hedge-fund boss;世界最成功的对冲基金经理的经济思想;“The most beautiful deleveraging yet seen” is how Ray Dalio describes what is now going on in Americas economy. As America has gone through the necessary process of reducing its debt-to-income ratio since the financial crash of 2008, he reckons its policymakers have done well in mixing painful stuff like debt restructuring with injections of cash to keep demand growing. Europes deleveraging, by contrast, is “ugly”.“这是我所见过的最美丽的去杠杆化”Ray Daio如此描述美国的经济现状。2008年经济危机以来,美国经历了为降低负债收入比而必须的的过程,他认为美国的政策制定者们在均衡棘手事务如债务重调和资金注入从而保持需求的持续上升方面做得可圈可点。相比之下,欧洲的去杠杆化显得“丑陋不堪”。Mr Dalios views are taken seriously. He made a fortune betting before the crash that the world had taken on too much debt and would need to slash it. Last year alone, his Bridgewater Pure Alpha fund earned its investors 13.8 billion Dollor, taking its total gains since it opened in 1975 to 35.8 billion Dollor, more than any other hedge fund ever, including the previous record-holder, George Soross Quantum Endowment Fund.Dalio的观点备受界内关注。在经济危机产生之前,他曾对经济局势做了一个断言,即世界经济需要大幅度地削减过重的负债。只去年一年,他的Bridgewater Pure Alpha基金就给投资者带来了138亿美元的回报,这也使得该基金达到自开创以来的358亿美元,并超过了包括以前的纪录保持者George Soros的 Quantum Endownment基金在内的任何一项对冲基金。Mr Dalio, an intense 62-year-old, is following in the footsteps of Mr Soros in other ways, too. Mr Soros has published several books on his theories, and is funding an institute to get mainstream economists to take alternative ideas seriously. Mr Dalio, too, is now trying to improve the public understanding of how the economy works. His economic model “is not very orthodox but gives him a pretty good sense of where the economy is,” says Paul Volcker, a former chairman of Americas Federal Reserve and one of Mr Dalios growing number of influential fans.在其他方面,现如今富有的已62岁的Dalio也在紧跟Soros的步伐。Soros至今已经出版了多本有关其理论的书籍,并正在资助一个机构,以便促使主流经济学家对另类思想加以重视。Dalio也在努力促进公众对经济运作过程的理解。美联储前主席Paul Volcker,作为Dalio日益增多且颇具影响力的粉丝之一,称其经济模式“并非绝对正统,但带给了他相当敏感的经济趋势把握能力”。Whereas Mr Soros credits the influence of Karl Popper, a philosopher who taught him as a student, Mr Dalio says his ideas are entirely the product of his own reflections on his life as a trader and his study of economic history. He has little academic economics (though his work has echoes of Hyman Minsky, an American economist, and of best-selling recent work on downturns by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff) but has conducted in-depth analysis of past periods of economic upheaval, such as the Depression in America, post-war Britain and the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic. He has even simulated being an investor in markets in those periods by ing daily papers from these eras, receiving data and “trading” as if in real time.不同的是,Soros把他的成功归于其学生时代的哲学家老师Karl Popper的影响。Dalio则说他的思想完全是自己作为一个交易商的生活感悟和对经济学历史研究的产物。他几乎没有读过正统的学术经济学(虽然他的著作得到了美国经济学家Hyman Minsky以及Carmen Reinhart和Kenneth Rogoff最近有关经济低迷的畅销书的回应),但是他对过去的经济剧变时期的情况作了深入分析,其中包括美国的经济大萧条,战后的英国和魏玛共和国的恶性通货膨胀。他甚至曾假装自己是当时的投资者,通过阅读当时的日报来获得数据信息,并进行现实般的“交易”。In the early 1980s Mr Dalio started writing down rules that would guide his investing. He would later amend these rules depending on how well they predicted what actually happened. The process is now computerised, so that combinations of scores of decision-rules are applied to the 100 or so liquid-asset classes in which Bridgewater invests. These rules led him to hold both government bonds and gold last year, for example, because the deleveraging process was at a point where, unusually, those two assets would rise at the same time. He was right.在20世纪80年代早期,Dalio就开始积累决策规律以备引导他日后的投资。以后的日子里,他会根据这些规律预测事实的准确度来修改它们。现在这项工作已由计算机来处理,从而得出大量决策规律的组合并将其应用于Bridgewater投资的约100项流动资产中。比如在去年,因为不同寻常的是,在去杠杆化进程中政府债券和黄金会同时涨价,这些决策规律指导他同时握有二者。果不其然,他是正确的。What Mr Dalio calls the “timeless and universal” core of his economic ideas is set out in a 20-page “Template for Understanding” that he wrote shortly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and recently updated. The document begins: “The economy is like a machine.” This machine may look complex but is, he insists, relatively simple even if it is “not well understood”. Mr Dalio models the macroeconomy from the bottom up, by focusing on the individual transactions that are the machines moving parts. Conventional economics does not pay enough attention to the individual components of supply and, above all, demand, he says. To understand demand properly, you must know whether it is funded by the buyers own money or by credit from others.Dalio所谓的“不受时间限制,放之四海而皆准”的经济思想核心陈述于20页的《用于理解的模板》中。他写于2008年雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产后不久并于近日更新。该文件以“经济就像一台机器”开始,他坚信,这台机器可能看起来复杂,但实际上它是相对简单的,即使是在它“不被很好地理解”的情况下。Dalio通过对经济机器的移动组成部分——个体交易,来自下而上地模拟宏观经济。他说,传统经济学对个体组成的供应尤其是他们的需求关注不够。要恰当地了解需求,你就必须知道为它提供资金的钱是来自购买者自己还是从他人的借贷。A huge amount of Bridgewaters efforts goes into gathering data on credit and equity, and understanding how that affects demand from individual market participants, such as a bank, or from a group of participants (such as subprime-mortgage borrowers). Bridgewater predicted the euro-zone debt crisis by totting up how much debt would need to be refinanced and when; and by examining all the potential buyers of that debt and their ability to buy it. Mr Volcker describes the degree of detail in Mr Dalios work as “mind-blowing” and admits to feeling sometimes that “he has a bigger staff, and produces more relevant statistics and analyses, than the Federal Reserve.”Bridgewater公司花了大力气来收集有关信贷和普通股的数据,并分析其是如何影响单个市场参与者比如一家和一群参与者(比如次级抵押贷款者)的需求的。该公司通过对需要再贷款的债务总值的合计,以及对欧元区债务潜在购买者的数量和他们的购买能力的研究,成功预测了欧元区的债务危机和其发生的时间。Volcker如此描述Dalio工作的细节详细程度——“叹为观止”,他也承认,在有些时候“他(Dalio)有更强大的团队,并能给出比美联储更中肯的统计数据和分析”。Two sorts of credit cycle are at the heart of Mr Dalios economic model: the business cycle, which typically lasts five to eight years, and a long-term (“long wave”) debt cycle, which can last 50-70 years. A business cycle usually ends in a recession, because the central bank raises the interest rate, reducing borrowing and demand. The debt cycle ends in deleveraging because there is a “shortage of capable providers of capital and/or a shortage of capable recipients of capital( borrowers and sellers of equity) that cannot be rectified by the central bank changing the cost of money.” Business cycles happen often, they are well understood and policymakers are fairly adept at managing them. A debt cycle tends to come along in a country once in a lifetime, tends to be poorly understood and is often mishandled by policymakers.Dalio的经济模式中有两种核心的信贷周期:通常持续5-8年的商业周期和长期的(“长波”)债务周期,后者长达50-70年。一次商业周期一般在经济衰退中结束,因为在经济衰退期,中央会提高利率,以降低贷款和需求。债务周期结束于去杠杆化过程中,此时“缺乏有能力的资金提供者或资金接收者(股权的贷方和卖方),而中央却无法通过改变资金成本来加以调节。”。商业周期时常产生,它们易于理解,也是政策制定者们善于控制的;然而,对某个国家而言,债务周期往往在人一生中只发生一次,所以他们对此不甚了解且往往处理不当。An ordinary recession can be ended by the central bank lowering the interest rate again. A deleveraging is much harder to end. According to Mr Dalio, it usually requires some combination of debt restructurings and write-offs, austerity, wealth transfers from rich to poor and money-printing. A “beautiful deleveraging” is one in which all these elements combine to keep the economy growing at a nominal rate that is higher than the nominal interest rate. (Beauty is in the eye of the beholder: Mr Dalio expects Americas GDP growth to average only 2% over a 15-year period.)中央通过降低利率来解决一般情况下的经济衰退。而去杠杆化远非如此简单,据Dalio称,它通常需要均衡债务重调与销账、财政紧缩、财富由富有阶层到贫困阶层的转移以及钞票印刷之间的关系。所谓“美丽的去杠杆化”是指能综合所有提及的因素从而保持经济的名义增长率高于名义利率。(所说的美丽是在旁观者眼中的:Dalio预期在为期15年的时间里,美国的GDP平均增长率仅为2%)Print too little money and the result is an ugly, deflationary deleveraging (see Greece); print too much and the deleveraging may become inflationary, as in Weimar Germany. Although Mr Dalio says he fears being misunderstood as saying “print a lot of money and everything will be OK, which I dont believe, all deleveragings have ended with the printing of significant amounts of money. But it has to be in balance with other policies.”印制过少货币的结果是“丑陋”的、通货紧缩的去杠杆化(比如希腊);印制过多则会导致类似德国魏玛的通货膨胀的去杠杆化。Dalio说“我并不同意所有去杠杆化都要大量地印制货币,那么只要印制钞票就会万事大吉的观点。但是这(货币的印制)确实需要和其他政策均衡作用”。即使他说自己担心被人误解。Mr Dalio admits to being wrong roughly a third of the time; indeed, he attributes a big part of his success to managing the risk of bad calls. And the years ahead are likely to provide a serious test of whether the economic machine is as simple as he says. For now, he is in a more optimistic mood thanks to the European Central Banks recent moves, in effect, to print money. Although he still expects debt restructuring in Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland, on top of that in Greece, he says that the “risk of chaos has been reduced and we are now calming ourselves down.”Heres hoping he is right again.Dalio承认他可能在犯第三次错误,而事实上,他把自己成功的大部分归功于对错误预测的风险的把握上。而且,过去的几年似乎是对他严峻的考验——验经济机器是否同他说的一样简单。就现在来说,因为今日欧洲中央正实行的货币印刷举措,他处于较乐观的心态。即使他仍希望西班牙、葡萄牙、意大利和爱尔兰尤其是希腊的债务重组。他说“混乱的风险已被降低,我们正在逐步安定下来”。这一次,我们希望它仍然是对的。 /201302/226337Dear Annie:My girlfriend and I have been together for three years. When we first started dating, Mary unexpectedly became pregnant and we now have a beautiful child who is our lifes joy. I would like to ask Mary to become my wife. Heres the problem: Money is pretty tight with a toddler, so buying an expensive engagement ring will be difficult. Is cubic zirconium worth looking into? I thought Id get a nice-looking CZ ring and, when things settle down, maybe replace it with a real diamond.亲爱的安妮:我和我女朋友在一起已经有三年了。当我们开始约会时,玛丽意外怀了,所以现在我们有个漂亮的宝宝,他给我们的生活带来不少快乐。我想让玛丽成为我的妻子。但存在一个问题:有了孩子之后用钱很紧张,因此买昂贵的婚戒就困难起来。那么暂时镶上锆石是否值得考虑?我打算先买一个好看的锆石环,等稳定以后,再用真正的钻石换掉锆石。My initial thought is to be upfront with Mary and tell her. Do you think thats a good idea? We have a joint checking account, so shell know all about my purchases. Is there a good way to mask how much the ring costs?—Perplexed in the Midwest我最初的想法是想事先跟玛丽商量一下。你认为这个主意好不好?我们拥有一个共同的票账户,所以我买任何东西她都会知道。有没有好的方法掩盖戒指的价值。Dear Perplexed:Dont lie to Mary about the value of the ring. Women can be very understanding about not getting a diamond, but they dont like being fooled. And if you are serious about replacing the ring later, it doesnt matter what the original is made from. As for hiding the cost, you can put aside small amounts of cash until you have enough to purchase the ring and Mary will never know what you paid for it. P.S.: Best wishes on your upcoming engagement.戒指的价值不要和Mary撒谎。没有钻戒女人能理解,但是她们不喜欢被骗。如果你真的准备事后换戒指,那戒指最先是什么材料都不重要。至于隐藏花销,你可以先攒小笔钱,直到你有足够的钱来购买戒指,玛丽绝不会知道你用哪比钱买的戒指。附:祝福你们即将到来的婚礼。原文译文属!201304/233111

There are people who make overcoming obstacles, even those towering 40 very vertical feet high, look easy.有一种人,他们能够克任何困难,甚至能够轻易攀登上那些冲入云宵的高达40英尺的陡壁。These rock climbers are the heart of Lilian Chao-Quinlans climbing center business.这些攀岩成员便是李连的 “超昆兰攀岩中心”业务的核心部分。I think with climbing you have to trust your partner and you have to know they are holding your rope.我认为,对于攀岩而言,你需要信任你的伙伴,并且必须知道他们和你抓着同一条绳索。This takes teamwork which why Chao-Quinlan is frustrated by all the talk of another cliff looming in Washington.攀岩需要团队合作。而超昆兰公司现在却没有信心超越正在逼近华盛顿的另一种悬崖。There is so much uncertainty not just for me as a business owner, but for our members, for our climb tower.这不仅对作为老板的我来说太不确定,而且对我们的攀岩成员,对我们的攀岩业务来说都太具风险。With negotiation stalled on a way to the fiscal cliff, Chao-Quinlan is put plans to expand her business on hold. She is worried because going over the cliff will cost middle class families an estimated 2000 dollars a year, money people wont have to spend here.随着财政悬崖的谈判有所搁浅,超昆兰不得不暂停扩展业务的计划。她对此非常担心,因为对一个普通中产家庭来说,渡过财政悬崖一年预计需要付出2千美元,而人们本可将这笔钱用在更急需之处。It’s always challenging when you are in a recreational type of environment because that sometimes the first thing that people consider, you know, when they are evaluating their finances and, what am I gonna to spend my money on?这种经济环境对业务非常不利。因为,在财务悬崖的情况下,人们首先会评估他们的资产、计划他们的消费。The fear that I have is that we are going to lose some customers and we are gonna to lose our shoppers. And weve been here for ten years.我现在担心的就是我们将失去一些客户和顾客。我们在这一行已经做了10年了。For clothing store owner Lindsay Buscher, it’s been a rough few years since the recession. Now she says she is terrified we are on the verge of tumbling back in.对装店老板Lindsay Buscher来说,自从经济衰退开始,每年都举步为难。现在,她说,害怕公司随时会倒闭。I think the facts of them not coming up with a plan is gonna be devastating. And I see a huge, a bigger recession.我认为,政府没有及时制定出正确的方案会带来毁灭性结果。我似乎看到了一个更严重、更长期的萧条。The prospect of higher taxes next year means Busher is cutting back now. Training staff for January and February only buying clothing she sure will sell. Her goal is just to keep her business afloat.明年可能的高税意味着Busher现在在缩减一切出。她吩咐员工只采购确信会畅销的装。她的目标仅仅是维持住公司的业务。My biggest fear is that my 7-year old will never really get a chance to see what Ive built.我非常担心7岁的孩子将没有机会看到我能成就一番事业。Back at the climbing center, Lilian Chao-Quinlan says there are lessons Washington negotiators could stand to learn.又返回攀岩中心的李连说,华盛顿的谈判人员们需要学习过去的经验教训。Every move is gonna dictate the next move. But that doesn’t mean that you are locked into that move; that doesn’t mean you cant try something else.每一项决定会决定再一项。但是,这并不意味着你只能死守那一决定,也不意味着你不能尝试其他办法。Unlike climbing, she says, fiscal cliff hanging shouldnt be an option because so much is on the line.她说,和攀岩不同,危险太大,财政悬崖并非良策。 201301/220303Still in Books and Arts; Book Review; Joys of craftsmanship;Handy work文艺;书评;手工技艺的乐趣;手工劳动;Made By Hand: Searching For Meaning in a Throwaway World. By Mark Frauenfelder.《手工制作:在被抛弃的世界中寻找意义》:马克·弗劳恩菲尔德著;The Case for Working With Your Hands: or Why Office Work is Bad for Us and Fixing Things Feels Good. By Matthew Crawford.《动手干活的理由:为什么办公室工作与人无益而修理东西却感觉良好》:马修·克劳弗德著;Anyone who has taken an axe to a laptop battery and thrown the bits in a pond (they explode: wear goggles) will like Mark Frauenfelders book. Those who havent will find a tantalising whiff of what they are missing. The author takes a hands-on approach to suburban life in Los Angeles. He rewires his espresso machine to produce what he calls proper coffee, keeps bees and chickens, whittles spoons from scrap wood, makes a ukulele and a cigar box from toothpicks, grows his own vegetables and tries to teach his children maths at home.任何一个曾用斧子砍破笔记本电脑的电池并把碎片扔进水塘里(爆炸物:请戴护目镜)的人都会喜欢马克·弗劳恩菲尔德的书。那些还没这么做的人则会对他们错过的事感到蠢蠢欲动。作者对洛杉矶的郊区生活采取的是一种亲自动手的方式。他改接了意式咖啡机的电路以制作出他所谓的好喝的咖啡,饲养蜜蜂和鸡,把废木料削成勺子,用牙签做成夏威夷四弦琴和雪茄烟盒,自己种菜,还试着在家里教他的孩子们学数学。The lawn is the archetypal enemy. Why do Americans spend such huge amounts of time, money, water, fertiliser and fuel on growing a useless smooth expanse of grass? Much better to cultivate something useful, like tomatoes. But how to do it? Mr Frauenfelder considers using herbicide to kill his unwanted lawn, but settles for covering it thickly with newspaper and weeding any grass that grows through: as with many of his projects, it is fun to start with, but becomes laborious.草坪就是个典型的敌人。为什么美国人要把如此大量的时间、金钱、水、化肥和燃料花在一大片平整却毫无用处的草地上呢?还不如栽培些实用的东西,比如西红柿。可是该怎么做呢?弗劳恩菲尔德先生也考虑过用除草剂来消灭那些无用的草坪,但他最终决定用报纸把草坪层层覆盖,然后再除去从中长出的任何一根草:这和他的很多方案一样,开头都很有趣,可随后就变得既耗时又费力。As the editor of Make, a magazine for American hobbyists, the author is well-placed to tap the nations vein of frustrated creativity and fiddling. Time was, he says nostalgically, when household equipment came with the expectation that the owner could and would wield the tools required to fix it: a wrench, pliers, screwdriver and hammer were all that was needed to keep an early Ford automobile on the road. That changed, he says, thanks to Sigmund Freuds nephew, Edward Louis Bernays, the pioneer of emotional advertising. He sold dreams of perfection instead of a partnership between man and machine. Now domestic appliances come with forbidding labels, such as “no user-serviceable parts” and “disassembly voids warranty”.本书作者作为美国业余爱好者杂志《动手做》的编辑,由他来开发这个国家未得施展的创造力和动手捣鼓东西的本事,正是再合适不过了。他怀旧地说道,曾几何时,家用设备的出现带着这样一种期望:其拥有者可以也愿意使用必要的工具对其进行修理。扳手、钳子、螺丝刀和锤子是保一辆早期福特车在路上行使的必备物品。这种情况已经改变了,他说,这都要“归功”于西格蒙德·弗洛伊德的外甥——爱德华·路易斯·伯奈斯——这位情感广告的先驱者。他用出售完美的梦想取代了出售人与机器之间的伙伴关系。现在的家用电器都带上了禁止标签,比如“不含用户可维修零件”和“拆开产品保修无效”。For the mechanically curious, that is no obstacle. And in some ways technology has made it much easier to fiddle and fix. You can find unofficial instruction manuals on the internet, and watch YouTube to see someone doing it properly. You may make mistakes, but that is the way you learn how things work and how to mend them. Doing so makes you a better person, Mr Frauenfelder argues: master, not prisoner, of your environment.出于机械方面的好奇心,这根本算不上什么障碍。科学技术也在某些方式上使这种拆拆弄弄更容易了。你能在英特网上找到非官方的操作手册,还能通过YouTube看看别人是怎么做的。你可能会犯错,但这就是你了解事物的工作原理并学习如何修理它们的方法。弗劳恩菲尔德先生声称,这样做会让你变成一个更优秀的人:一个外界环境的主人,而不是俘虏。The book echoes Matthew Crawfords masterly and reflective, “The Case for Working with Your Hands”, a bestseller in America which has just come out in Britain. Mr Crawford focuses on motorbikes, with doses of classical philosophy, rather than domestic gripes.这本书回应了马修·克劳弗德精巧娴熟、深思熟虑的新书《动手干活的理由》,一本刚刚在英国出版的美国畅销书。克劳弗德先生的重点集中在托车上,又加上几剂古典哲学的良药,以代替做家务活的满腹牢骚。Mr Frauenfelder rightly highlights the impotent fury aroused by tamper-proof tabs seals, and the joy of mastering recalcitrant gadgets. But his own literary craftsmanship is irritating too. An ill-planned attempt to start a new life in the South Pacific is irrelevant and tiresome. His prose is tinny, and the mentions of his children dull and cutesy. The er does feel sorry for his wife, though, when dead bees clog the light fittings and a coyote eats the favourite chickens. His motto is DIY. Hers is HAP (Hire a Pro). One can see why.弗劳恩菲尔德先生恰当地突出了被那些防止乱拆乱动的标签封条激起的无力的愤怒,以及自如地掌控那些难以驯的装置的乐趣。可是他自己笔下的手工技艺却同样令人抓狂。一次打算在南太平洋开始新生活却计划不周的尝试脱离了主题,令人厌烦。他的文笔不算好,提到他的孩子们时既无趣又做作。不过,当死去的蜜蜂堵塞了照明装置,郊狼吞吃掉心爱的小鸡的时候,读者确实会为他的妻子感到难过。他的格言是DIY(自己动手),而她的是HAP(雇个专家)。你能明白这是为什么。 /201303/229382

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