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Twenty years ago, asmall group of Russian businessmen saved the country from a return tocommunism. 20年前,一小群俄罗斯商人拯救了这个国家,使之避免回到共产党统治。Boris Yeltsin,physically and politically weak, was close to being beaten in the presidentialelection by Gennady Zyuganov. 在总统选举中,身体和政治上虚弱的鲍里斯.叶利Boris Yeltsin)差点被根纳季.久加诺夫(Gennady Zyuganov,俄罗斯联邦共产党领导人——译者注)打败。In the firstballot, Yeltsin led by just 3 per cent. 在第一轮投票中,叶利钦领先3个百分点。The moneyand organisation the oligarchs brought to the party put him more than 13points ahead in the second and decisive vote. 在第二轮决定性的投票中,寡头们提供的资金和组织使他领先了3个百分点。Now, in verydifferent circumstances, the oligarchs may need to intervene again.如今,在非常不同的时代背景下,寡头们或许需要再次干预。Russia is in aparlous state. 俄罗斯目前正处于危险之中。Real incomes havefallen by 10 per cent in just a year. 实际收入在短短一年里下滑0%。The roubledepreciated 37 per cent and in real terms gross domestic product fell 3.7 percent, according to World Bank figures. 卢布下跌7%;根据世界银World Bank)数据,实际国内生产总GDP)缩水3.7%。Household incomesand investment fell sharply. 家庭收入和投资急剧下滑。The trends havepersisted into 2016. 这种趋势延续到了2016年。Forget the blusterof President Vladimir Putin and the military activities in Ukraine and Syria. 忘了俄罗斯总统弗拉基米普京(Vladimir Putin)的狠话以及在乌克兰和叙利亚的军事活动吧。What was once asuperpower is now a country in decline.昔日的超级大国现在成了衰落之囀?Many nations havesuffered from the fall in energy prices over the last two years but few havebeen more seriously affected than Russia. 过去两年,很多国家都遭受了能源价格下跌的影响,但是没有几个国家比俄罗斯受到的打击更严重。The reason is itsoverwhelming dependence on the oil and gas sector, revenues from which accountfor half the national budget. 原因在于它对石油和天然气部门压倒性的依赖,来自该部门的财政收入撑了国家预算的一半。The effect of thefall in oil prices has been compounded by the loss of both volumes and value ingas sales. 除油价下滑的影响外,天然气销售规模缩减和价格下跌如同雪上加霜。Europe is Russia’sprimary export market and falling gas demand (down 20 per cent over the lastdecade) combined with a worldwide surplus of supply has pushed prices down 65per cent in the last three years.欧洲是俄罗斯主要的出口市场,天然气需求下滑(过去十年减少0%)再加上全球范围供应过剩,使得过去三年天然气价格下降5%。To these exogenousfactors have been added the isolation and sanctions that have followed theannexation of Crimea. 除这些外部因素外,还有俄罗斯吞并克里米亚后遭到的孤立和制裁。Such measures maynot have led to any reconsideration of policy in the Kremlin but they have hadan inexorably growing negative effect on the economy. 此类措施或许并没有促使克里姆林宫重审政策,但是它们对俄罗斯经济造成了日益消极的影响。Fresh inwardinvestment is minimal, and in the areas of new technology that Russia so badlyneeds it is nonexistent. 新的外来投资极少,而在俄罗斯亟需的新技术领域完全不存在。The internationalcompanies aly present are keeping their heads down, hoping circumstanceswill change. 已经落地的跨国企业保持低姿态,企盼形势会有所改变。But they are notrushing to put in more money.但是它们不急于加大投资。Mr Putin, who hasremained in power for most of the last 17 years on the back of relativelystrong oil and gas prices, can now only rely on the dangerous rhetoric ofnationalism, coupled with a determination to make convenient enemies of thewest, in particular the US. 在油价和天然气价格相对坚挺的帮助下,在过7年的大部分时间掌握大权的普京,如今只能依赖于危险的民族主义言论、以及把西方(特别是美国)列为便利的敌对力量的决心。The vicious andunnecessary conflict in Syria serves no practical purpose. 在叙利亚延续毫无必要的恶性冲突没有实际作用。Russian interests,including its naval base on the Mediterranean coast of Syria, could easily havebeen protected within the terms of a peace agreement. 俄罗斯的利益——包括其在叙利亚地中海海岸的海军基地——可以在和平协议的条款下轻松得到保护。But Mr Putin needsa continuing conflict to justify his position of power.但是普京需要延续叙利亚的冲突来坐稳自己的权力宝座。Why should theoligarchs take the risk of forcing a change in the Kremlin? The answer isself-interest just as in 1996. 寡头们为何要冒险迫使克里姆林宫换人?是为了自身利益——就996年一样。Several have lostlarge sums of money as the economy has declined. 随着俄罗斯经济下滑,一些寡头已经遭受了大量财富损失。Although most havemanaged to extract their families and the bulk of their capital and moved toLondon or Paris, many still have substantial physical and economic assets inRussia. 尽管多数寡头成功地把家人和大部分资本转移至伦敦或巴黎,但是很多人在俄罗斯仍然拥有大量的实体和经济资产。Those arevulnerable to a collapse of confidence in the economy and potentialexpropriation by a desperate government. 这些资产容易受到经济信心崩塌的影响,也可能会被走投无路的政府没收。Some even fear thelong arm of Moscow will reach out to force them to hand back some of the moneythey have taken out.一些人甚至担心莫斯科方面的触角会伸向境外,强迫他们返还已经转移的一部分资金。For many there isa reputational concern. 很多寡头还有名誉上的顾虑。To be Russian isnot a label that secures trust or warm acceptance. 身为俄罗斯人的标签无助于得到信任或热情接受。Some doors havealy been closed to investment from the country. 来自俄罗斯的投资已经吃了一些闭门羹。In the second USpresidential debate last week, Hillary Clinton talked about the need to findmore leverage to force Moscow to change its behaviour. 在美国总统竞选第二场辩论中,希拉克林Hillary Clinton)谈到了寻找更多手段强迫莫斯科改变的必要性。That can only beeconomic in nature and would directly affect the oligarchs and their businessinterests including, in extremis, their right to travel freely in the US. 这些手段的性质只可能是经济的,它们会直接影响寡头及其商业利益,在极端情况下还包括他们在美国自由旅行的权利。As American robberbarons learnt at the end of the 19th century, once you have made your money –by whatever means you have a keen interest in the enforcement of the rule oflaw to protect your assets.就像美国强盗资本家在19世纪末学到的那样,一旦你赚了钱——无论以何种方式——你就会对维护法治有强烈兴趣,以保护你的资产。The understandingreached more than a decade ago between the oligarchs and Mr Putin after initialtension which saw some arrested or exiled was that he would make Russia asecure place in and from which to do business and that the oligarchs would stayout of politics and sustain him in power. 十多年前,寡头们和普京之间在经历了最初的紧张后(一些人被逮捕或流放)达成共识:普京会确保俄罗斯成为做生意的安全之地,而寡头们会远离政治并撑他掌权。The president hasbroken his side of that bargain.现在普京背弃了他在那笔交易下的义务。What would achange of leadership mean? In essence, a change of priorities. 领导层变更将意味着什么?在本质上,这意味着改变轻重缓急。Economics wouldbecome more important than military adventures or any conflict with Europe orthe US. 经济会比军事冒险或与欧美冲突更受重视。Deals would bedone to settle the conflicts in Ukraine and Syria to bring an end to sanctions.签订解决乌克兰和叙利亚冲突的协议,结束制裁。The neglectedagenda of establishing closer links with Europe would be revived.重启近年被忽视的与欧洲建立更紧密关系的议程。Changing Russiainternally would be the greatest challenge. 从内部改变俄罗斯将是最艰巨的挑战。A technocrat wouldbe put in charge. 将有一名技术统治论者掌权。The securityapparatus of the state would remain in place the oligarchs are too smart tomess with the FSB, the KGB’s successor agency but there would be a reductionin military spending and procurement which has risen rapidly in the last threeyears. 国家的安全机器将继续保留——精明的寡头们不会插手俄罗斯联邦安全局(FSB,前身是苏联克格KGB))的事务——但是军事出和装备采购将缩减(过去三年这方面的出迅速增长)。There wouldinstead be incentives for inward investment, helped by the weakness of therouble and the promise of a more more economically and politically stablegovernment in Moscow. 同时,俄罗斯将在疲软卢布和承诺建立在经济和政治上更稳定的政府的帮助下推出吸引外资的刺激政策。On top of that, anew wave of privatisation could begin. 此外,俄罗斯将开始新一轮私有化浪潮。No doubt theoligarchs would participate by bringing back some of the capital they haveexported.寡头们必然会参与其中,将之前外流的部分资金转移回国内。Russia would notsuddenly become an open, liberal democracy but the dangerous illusion that itis still a superpower would be quietly dropped and the world would be a saferplace. 俄罗斯不会在一夜间变成开放、自由的民主国家,但是它会默默放下自己仍是超级大国的危险幻觉,世界将变得更加安全。Given the scale ofthe country’s problems and the risks of the current tensions escalating, animperfect transfer of power would be better than allowing the status quo todeteriorate further.鉴于俄罗斯问题的严重性以及当前紧张局势升级的风险,不完美的权力移交也好过现状进一步恶化。来 /201610/473516

Turkey blamed a Syrian suicide bomber from Isis for a large explosion that killed 10 including at least eight German tourists in Istanbul’s historic Sultanahmet district yesterday.昨日,土耳其伊斯坦布尔市历史悠久的苏丹艾哈迈德广Sultanahmet)发生大爆炸,导致包括至少8名德国游客在0人死亡。土耳其当局指责一名来自“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国ISIS)的叙利亚自杀式炸弹袭击者对此负责。The blast occurred at 10.15am in Sultanahmet, a thriving tourist area close to attractions such as the Blue Mosque and the Aya Sofya.爆炸上午10点一刻发生在苏丹艾哈迈德广场,该广场是一个人流密集的旅游区,靠近蓝色清真Blue Mosque)、圣索菲亚大教堂(Aya Sofya)等著名景点。Ahmet Davutoglu, the prime minister, said the attacker belonged to Isis and that the dead and wounded were foreigners. “We know that he [the bomber] is a foreign citizen and a Daesh member,he said, using the Arabic acronym for the jihadi group.土耳其总理阿赫迈特达乌特奥Ahmet Davutoglu)表示,袭击者来自ISIS,死者和伤者都外国人。“我们获悉他(炸弹袭击者)是一名外国公民、‘达伊沙Daesh)成员,”他说,并用阿拉伯语缩写指称该圣战组织。Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, said the country was being targeted for its campaign against “terroristorganisations in the region. “This incident once again has shown us that we have to stay united against terrorism,he said in televised remarks.土耳其总统雷杰普吠伊普埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)表示,土耳其因打击该地区的“恐怖”组织而成为袭击目标。他在电视讲话中称:“这一事件再次表明,我们必须团结起来打击恐怖主义。”The German government said at least eight of the dead and many of the 15 people injured were Germans. The explosion took place not far from a fountain memorialising the visit of the German emperor to Istanbul in 1898.德国政府表示,至名死者以5名伤者中的许多人都是德国人。爆炸地点距离一座纪念德国皇898年访问伊斯坦布尔的喷泉不远。Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, said international terrorism “once again shows us its brutal and inhuman face德国总理安格拉默克尔(Angela Merkel)表示,国际恐怖主义“再一次向我们展示了它残暴、非人性的一面”。Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany’s foreign minister, struck a similar tone, describing the act as a “barbaric, cowardly act of terrorand lamenting that it had targeted the heart of Istanbul, which “we all value for its openness to the world德国外长弗兰瓦尔特施泰因迈尔(Frank-Walter Steinmeier)表达了同样的愤怒,称之为“野蛮、懦弱的恐怖行为”,并痛惜,袭击的目标是伊斯坦布尔的中心,“我们都因这里对世界的开放而珍视它”。The bombing is the third major terrorist incident in Turkey since July, and heightens concerns about security as Mr Erdogan confronts the spiralling effects of the civil war in neighbouring Syria as well as violence in the largely Kurdish south-east of Turkey.此次爆炸事件是去月以来土耳其发生的第三起大型恐怖事件,进一步加深了对土耳其安全的担忧,埃尔多安所面对的问题正在急剧增加,包括邻国叙利亚内战,以及以库尔德人为主的土耳其东南部发生的暴力活动。The bombing raises questions about the capabilities of Turkey’s vast surveillance and intelligence networks in preventing attacks.土耳其拥有庞大的监视和情报网络以防止攻击,此次爆炸对该网络的能力提出质疑。If it is confirmed that the bomber was a Syrian, the attacks could become a domestic political issue in Germany, where Syrians have entered the country in large numbers as refugees. Sexual assaults on women in Cologne on New Year’s Eve, allegedly committed mainly by asylum seekers, have caused outrage in Germany and increased criticism of Ms Merkel’s refugee policy.如果确认袭击者为叙利亚人,则袭击事件可能在德国引起政治问题,因为德国接受了大批叙利亚难民。跨年夜科隆发生的女性遭性侵事件,据称作案者主要是申请避难者,此事在德国引起民愤,并增加了对默克尔难民政策的批评。Yesterday’s attack could also complicate the chancellor’s efforts to secure a wide-ranging deal with Turkey on her top priority: limiting the inflow of refugees from the Middle East into Europe.德国总理原本寻求与土耳其就她的首要任务达成广泛协议,即限制难民从中东流入欧洲,昨日的袭击可能会令她的努力复杂化。来 /201601/423003

The U.S. Defense Department has lifted its ban on transgender men and women serving openly in the military.美国国防部取消了对跨性别者公开役的禁令;We have to have access to 100 percent of Americas population,; Defense Secretary Ash Carter told reporters Thursday. ;Our mission is to defend this country and we dont want barriers unrelated to a persons qualification to serve preventing us from recruiting or retaining the solder, sailor, airman or Marine who can best accomplish the mission,; Carter said.美国国防部长卡特星期四告诉记者说,军队招募要面对所有美国人。他还说,我们的任务是保卫这个国家,我们不需要任何跟个人能力无关的障碍,让我们无法招募和留用能够最出色完成使命的陆海空和海军陆战队将士。He said servicemen and women can serve openly immediately and will no longer be discharged just for being transgender.卡特说,现役军人可以立即公开身份役,不会仅仅因为是跨性别者而被迫退役。He said there are currently an estimated 2,500 transgender people serving in active duty.他说,美军现役军人里目前有大500名跨性别者。The military will begin accepting transgender Americans who meet all of the physical and mental standards “no later than one year from today,Carter added.卡特补充说,军方在一年内将开始接受跨性别者入伍,只要他们身心都符合标准。The change removes one of the last barriers to military service by any individual. It comes nearly a half-decade after the formal end of the “don’t ask, don’t tellpolicy, which barred gays and lesbians from serving openly in the U.S. military, and less than one year after all combat positions in the military were opened to women.这一政策变化去除了美国人入伍的最后限制之一,距离不让同性恋者公开役的“不问不说”政策的正式结束已经过去了近五年时间。不到一年前,美国所有战斗岗位开始向女性开放。来 /201607/452397


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