湖州98医院祛疤手术多少钱豆瓣典范

来源:搜狐娱乐
原标题: 湖州98医院祛疤手术多少钱
It#39;s hardly a surprise that Asia and its booming economies will produce thousands more multimillionaires in coming years. The question is, for everyone from luxury brands and real estate agents to private bankers and wannabe rich spouses: Where exactly to find these newly minted rich?亚洲及其繁荣的经济体将在未来几年造就更多的千万富豪,这并不让人感到意外。问题是,无论是对奢侈品牌和房地产经纪人,还是私人家和想要成为有钱人配偶的群体来说,哪里才是这些新晋 石王老五的聚集地呢?Try Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Mumbai and any major city in China.到胡志明市、雅加达、孟买和中国的任何一个大城市去碰碰运气吧。The new annual Wealth Report from property agency Knight Frank says there were 167,669 ultra-high-net-worth individuals in the world in 2013. An UHNWI is defined by Knight Frank as someone with million in assets, not including debt and their primary residence. The number is expected to grow by 28% to 215,113 by 2023.房地产机构莱坊(Knight Frank)的最新年度财富报告称,2013年全世界共有超高 值人士(ultra-high net worth individuals)167,669人。超高 值人士指的是金融资产逾3,000万美元者,其中不包括债务和主要居所。到2023年该人群数量预计将增加28%,达到215,113人。Much of the growth will come from Asia. The -million-plus crowd in the region will hit 58,588 by 2023, a rise of 43% from last year. That figure would surpass North America#39;s UHNWI population, which is expected to grow 20% by 2023 to just 52,536.亚洲将成为增长的主力军。2023年,亚洲超高 值人士将达到58,588人,较2013年增加43%。这一数字将超过北美,后者预计到2023年将达52,536人,增加20%。The city expected to see the fastest growth in its headcount of the superrich is Ho Chi Minh City. Knight Frank, whose report delves into the global rich and their real estate preferences, expects the Vietnamese metropolis to increase its wealthy population by 173% to 246. Keep in mind, the extraordinary growth is coming from a low 2013 level when the city had just 90 multimillionaires.预计超级富豪人数增加最快的城市是胡志明市。莱坊的报告深入探究了全球富豪及其对房地产的偏好,预计胡志明市的富裕人口将增加173%,至246人。考虑到2013年该市只有90个千万富翁,预期增速显得非同寻常。Jakarta and Mumbai will also see significant boosts in UHNWIs. Jakarta is projected to have 857 super rich by 2023 (a rise of 148%), while Mumbai will have 1,302 (up 126%).雅加达和孟买的超高 值人士也将大大增加。预计雅加达到2023年将拥有超高 值人士857人(增幅为148%),孟买将有1,302人(增幅为126%)。Though double-digit economic growth in China may be a thing of the past, its economy is still expected to produce an explosion of wealth, Knight Frank said. China#39;s UNHWI population is forecast to increase 80% over the next decade to 14,213, which will place it third among nations, after the U.S. and Japan.莱坊称,在中国,虽然两位数的经济增长态势或已成为过去式,但其经济仍有望产生财富的激增。中国超高 值人士预计将在未来十年增至14,213人,涨幅为80%,中国将一举跻身于世界前三之列,紧随美国和日本之后。Among Chinese cities to have big jumps in multimillionaire numbers: Hangzhou, which is expected to see its wealthy headcount go to 1,002, an increase of 78% from its current level of 563. Shanghai will see its rich population rise 50% to 1,542, while Beijing is expected to be home to 1,872 UHNWIs by 2023, a rise of 42%.在中国的一些城市中,千万富翁的数量已有巨大飞跃:杭州,预计其富豪人数将在当前的563人基础上增加78%,达到1,002人;上海,预计将增加50%达到1,542人;北京,到2023年预计将拥有超高 值人士1,872人 ,增加42%。China#39;s cities won#39;t rival New York or London anytime soon as a magnet for the rich. (London boasts 4,224 UHNWIs and that figure is expected to grow 17% to 4,940 by 2023, for example.) But consider this: Hangzhou, a rising technology hub in China, is forecast to have more multimillionaires than Los Angeles in a decade#39;s time. Perhaps then, we#39;ll be thinking Moganshan instead of Beverly Hills.在吸引富人这方面,近期内中国城市不敌纽约或伦敦(以伦敦为例,目前其超高 值人士数量为4,224人,2023年将达4,940人,涨幅为17%)。不过想想看:在十年之内,杭州作为中国一个正在崛起的技术中心,预计将催生出比洛杉矶更多的千万富翁。也许到那时,我们自然而然想到的是莫干山(Moganshan),而不是比弗利山庄(Beverly Hills)。 /201403/279318The most interesting message in this year’s World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency is also its most disturbing.在国际能源署(IEA)今年发布的《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)中,最令人瞩目的信息也最令人不安。Over the past decade, the oil and gas industry’s upstream investments have registered an astronomical increase, but these ever higher levels of capital expenditure have yielded ever smaller increases in the global oil supply. Even these have only been made possible by record high oil prices. This should be a reality check for those now hyping a new age of global oil abundance.过去10年里,油气行业上游业务投资暴增,但新增资本出带来的新增全球石油供应量不断缩小。尽管情况不尽如人意,这还是靠创纪录的高油价撑才得以实现的。对于眼下那些鼓吹全球石油充足新时代已经到来的人而言,这应是当头一棒。According to the 2013 WEO, the total world oil supply in 2012 was 87.1m barrels a day, an increase of 11.9m b/d over the 75.2m b/d produced in 2000.根据2013年《世界能源展望》,2012年,全球石油总供应量为每日8710万桶,这个数字较2000年的7520万桶增加了1190万桶。However, less than one-third of this increase was in the form of conventional crude oil, and more than two-thirds was therefore either what the IEA calls unconventional crude (light-tight oil, oil sands, and deep/ultra-deepwater oil) or natural-gas liquids (NGLs).然而,在新增部分中,常规原油只占不到三分之一,另外逾三分之二要么是IEA所说的非常规原油(轻致密油(light-tight oil)、油砂和深水及超深水石油(deep/ultra-deepwater oil)),要么是天然气凝析液(NGL)。This distinction matters because unconventional crude has a higher cost than conventional crude, while NGLs have a lower energy density.区分新增部分的不同来源很重要,因为非常规原油的成本高于常规原油,而天然气凝析液的能量密度低于常规原油。The IEA’s long-run cost curve has conventional crude in a range of - a barrel, whereas for unconventional crude the ranges are higher: - a barrel for oil sands, -0 for light-tight oil, and - for ultra-deep water. Meanwhile, in terms of energy content, a barrel of crude oil is worth 1.4 barrels of NGLs.根据IEA的长期成本曲线,常规原油的成本区间为每桶10美元至70美元,而非常规原油的成本区间位于较高水平:油砂的每桶成本为50美元至90美元,轻致密油为50美元至100美元,超深水石油为70美元至90美元。与此同时,1桶原油所含能量相当于1.4桶天然气凝析液。Threefold rise资本出12年扩大逾两倍The much higher cost of developing unconventional crude resources and the lower energy density of NGLs explain why, as these sources have increased their share of supply, the industry’s upstream capex has grown. But the sheer scale of the increase is staggering: upstream outlays have risen more than threefold in real terms over the past 12 years, reaching nearly 0bn in 2012 compared with only 0bn in 2000 (both figures in constant 2012 dollars).由于开发非传统原油资源的成本比传统原油高得多,而天然气凝析液能量密度比传统原油低,因此随着这些来源在原油供应中比例上升,该行业的上游资本出一直在增加,并且增幅相当惊人:过去12年,上游业务实际资本出扩大逾两倍,2012年达到近7000亿美元,而2000年这个数字仅为2500亿美元(这些数据均以2012年定值美元计算)。Coinciding with the rise in US tight-oil production, most of this increase in upstream capex has occurred since 2005, as investments have effectively doubled from 0bn in that year to nearly 0bn in 2012 (again in 2012 dollars).与美国致密油产量增加的时间相吻合,新增上游业务资本出大部分发生在2005年以后,实际上,投资从2005年到2012年翻了一番,从3500亿美元增至近7000亿美元(同样以2012年定值美元计算)。All of which means the 2013 WEO has the oil industry’s upstream capex rising by nearly 180 per cent since 2000, but the global oil supply (adjusted for energy content) by only 14 per cent. The most straightforward interpretation of this data is that the economics of oil have become completely dislocated from historic norms since 2000 (and especially since 2005), with the industry investing at exponentially higher rates for increasingly small incremental yields of energy.所有这些都意味着,如2013年《世界能源展望》所示,自2000年以来,石油行业上游业务的资本出扩大了近180%,但全球石油供应(按能源含量调整后)仅增加了14%。对这一数据的最直接解读是,自2000年(特别是自2005年)以来,石油的经济性已完全偏离历史正常水平,行业投资呈指数增长,而创造的能源产出增量却越来越少。The industry has been able and willing to finance such a dramatic increase in its capital investment since 2000 owing to the similarly dramatic increase in prices. BP data show that the average price of Brent crude in real terms increased from a barrel in 2000 to 2 in 2012 (in constant 2011 dollars), which represents a 195 per cent increase, slightly greater in fact than the increase in industry capex over the same period.自2000年以来,石油行业之所以一直能够而且愿意为资本出的飙升买单,是因为油价同样出现飙升。英国石油(BP)数据显示,布伦特(Brent)原油的每桶实际均价已从2000年的38美元升至2012年的112美元(以2011年定值美元计算),涨幅高达195%,实际上略高于同期石油行业资本出的增速。However, looking only at the period since 2005, capital outlays have risen faster than prices (90 per cent and 75 per cent respectively), while in the past two years capex has risen by a further 20 per cent (the IEA estimates 2013 upstream capex at 0bn versus 0bn in 2011), while Brent prices have actually averaged about a barrel less this year than in 2011.然而,如果只考察2005年至2012年这段时期,资本出增速是高于油价涨幅的(分别为90%和75%)。此外,在过去两年里,资本出进一步扩大20%(IEA估计,2013年上游业务资本出为7100亿美元,而2011年这一数字为5900亿美元),而布伦特原油今年的每桶均价实际上比2011年还要低5美元左右。Iran not a game changer伊朗不会扭转乾坤Moreover, this vast increase in capex has occurred during a prolonged period of record-low interest rates. Once interest rates start rising again, this will put further pressure on the industry’s ability to make the massive capital outlays required to keep supply growing.另外,资本出的大幅增加出现在利率处于创纪录低位的一段超长时期内。一旦利率开始再次上升,就会进一步压缩石油行业大规模资本出的能力,而这种能力是石油行业保持供应不断增加所必需的。Of course, the diplomatic breakthrough achieved with Iran over the weekend could provide some short-term relief to the market, as Iran’s exports could ultimately increase by up to 1.5m b/d if and when western sanctions are fully lifted. But this would not change the dynamics of the industry’s capex tmill in any fundamental sense.当然,不久前西方对伊朗的外交突破可能会让市场暂时松一口气,因为如果西方完全解除制裁,届时伊朗石油日出口量可能最终会增加150万桶之多。但这不会从根本上改变石油行业的资本出态势。The IEA estimates that global production of conventional crude oil from all currently producing fields will decline by 41m b/d by 2035 (an average of 1.9m b/d per year), so Iran’s potential increase of 1.5m b/d would compensate for just 10 months of natural decline in global conventional-crude output.IEA估计,到2035年,目前全球所有产油区的常规原油总日产量将减少4100万桶(平均每年减少190万桶),因此,伊朗可能增加的150万桶日出口量仅够弥补全球常规原油日产量头10个月的自然下滑。In short, behind the hubbub of market hype about a new age of oil abundance, the toil for oil is in fact more arduous and back-breaking than ever. This should worry everybody, because with the evidence suggesting that consumers are reluctant to pay much above 0 a barrel, it is an open question what happens next to the industry’s investment plans and hence, over time, to the supply of oil.简而言之,在市场大肆鼓吹石油充足新时代到来之际,生产石油事实上已变得比以往任何时候都更为艰难。所有人都应为此感到担忧,因为有据表明,消费者不愿为每桶超过110美元的油价买单,因此,石油行业投资的计划将何去何从,以及从长远来看对石油供应会产生怎样的影响,眼下都还是未知数。 /201312/267294

JEREMY GRANTHAM#39;S GOT A TRACK RECORD that#39;s impossible to ignore--he called the Internet bubble, then the housing bubble. While moves like those have earned the famed forecaster the nickname #39;perma-bear, #39; in early 2009 he also told clients at GMO, his 0 billion, Boston-based money-management firm, to jump back into the market. It was the same week that stocks hit their post-Lehman low.杰里米·格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)拥有不容小觑的从业纪录─他成功地预言了互联网泡沫,接着又成功地预言了房地产泡沫。虽说这样的纪录为这位著名的预测大师赢得了“永远的熊市论者”(perma-bear)的绰号,他也曾在2009年初告诉GMO资产管理公司的客户杀回市场。就在那一周,股市正好创下了雷曼公司(Lehman)倒闭后的历史低位。GMO资产管理公司的总部位于波士顿,管理的资产总额为1,000亿美元。Now, however, the outspoken Yorkshireman, who is chief investment strategist at GMO, is making headlines with a new prediction: Dire, Malthusian warnings about environmental catastrophe. To hear him tell it, the world is running out of food. Resources will only keep getting more expensive. And climate change looms over it all. Indeed, at times he sounds like someone Greenpeace would send door-to-door with a clipboard. (He#39;s not above likening the coal-industry spin to the handiwork of Goebbels.) If it were anyone else, Wall Street would probably laugh him off. But because it#39;s Jeremy Grantham, they just might listen.不过现在这位坦率直言的约克郡人、GMO的首席投资策略师,再次用最新的预测抓住了媒体的眼球:他发出马尔萨斯式的悲惨警告,称可能出现环境大灾难。他的观点主要是:世界的食品供应即将告罄;资源的价格只会越变越贵;气候变化迫在眉睫。的确,格兰瑟姆有时候听起来像极了绿色和平组织派出去的拿着材料挨家挨户宣传的工作人员。(他未能免俗地将煤炭业的宣传比作是戈培尔的造势之作)。如果换成别人,华尔街很可能对此一笑置之。但因为他是杰里米·格兰瑟姆,华尔街很可能就会变得洗耳恭听。Q: You#39;ve been ringing alarm bells about commodity prices. Why all the worry?问:对于大宗商品的价格,你一直都在敲响警钟。你为什么会产生这种担忧?A: They came down for a hundred years by an average of 70 percent, and then starting around 2002, they shot up and basically everything tripled--and I mean, everything. I think tobacco was the only one that went down. They#39;ve given back a hundred years of price decline and they gave it back between #39;02 and #39;08, in six years. The game has changed. I suspect the game changed because of the ridiculous growth rates in China--such a large country, with 1.3 billion people using 45 percent of the coal used in the world, 50 percent of all the cement and 40 percent of all the copper. I mean these are numbers that you can#39;t keep on rolling along without expecting something to go tilt.答: 大宗商品的价格在一百年内平均下降了70%,而在2002年前后,大宗商品的价格却出现了井喷式的增长,基本上每种大宗商品的价格都涨到了原来的三倍──我的意思是,几乎没有例外。我认为烟草是唯一价格下降的大宗商品。大宗商品将一百年跌去的价格都涨回来了,而且是在02年至08年的六年间就涨回来了。游戏规则已经改变了。我猜测,游戏改变的原因是中国奇高的增长率──中国是如此庞大的国家,13亿人口消费了全球45%的煤炭、50%的水泥和40%的铜。我的意思是,这些数据不可能持续下去而不导致一些事情失控。Q: This led to some surprising conclusions, like your concerns about natural resources most of us have barely heard of.问:这会令人得出一些意想不到的结论,比如你对于自然资源的担忧。而大多数人还没有听说过这些担忧。A: We went through one by one, and we decided the most important, the most valuable and the most critical was phosphate or phosphorous. Phosphorous cannot be made, only placed. It is necessary for all living things. And we are mining it, and it#39;s depleting. And I like to say, if that doesn#39;t give you goosebumps, then you#39;re tougher than me. That is a terrible equation. So I went to the professors, and I said, what#39;s going to happen, and they said, #39;Oh, there#39;s plenty of phosphorous.#39; But what#39;s going to happen when it runs out? #39;Oh, there is plenty.#39; It#39;s a really weak argument. We do have a lot, but 85 percent of the low-cost, high-quality phosphorous is in Morocco...and belongs to the King of Morocco. I mean, this is an odd situation. Much, much more constrained than oil in the Middle East ever was--and much more important in the end. And the rest of the world has maybe 50 years of reserve if we don#39;t grow too fast.答: 我们对资源逐一进行了研究,我们认为最重要、最有意义以及最严峻的问题是磷酸盐或磷的问题。磷不能经由人工生产,只能自然存储。对于所有的生物来讲,磷都不可或缺。随着我们对磷的开采,这种原材料正在逐渐枯竭。我想说的是,如果这都不能令你感到恐惧的话,那你可比我坚强。这是一个可怕的等式(开采多少,储量就减少多少)。所以,我去向教授们讨教,问他们未来将会怎样。他们说:“哦!磷矿的储量非常丰富。”但是,当磷矿枯竭后又会怎么样呢?“哦,它的储量非常丰富。”这是一个相当无力的论据。我们的确拥有大量磷矿,但是85%开采成本低廉、品质较高的磷矿都位于洛哥……并归洛哥国王所有。我的意思是,这是一种微妙的状况。相较于历史上原油在中东最集中的程度,磷矿的集中程度要高得多;并且从长远来说,磷矿的重要性也高得多。如果实施有节制开采的话,全球其他地区的磷矿储备或许可以再撑50年。Q: What are investors supposed to do?问:投资者应该怎样做呢?A: The investment implications are, of course, own stock in the ground, own great resources, reserves of phosphorous, potash, oil, copper, tin, zinc--you name it. I#39;d be less enthusiastic about aluminum and iron ore just because there is so much. And I wouldn#39;t own coal, and I wouldn#39;t own tar sands. It#39;s hugely expensive to build coal utilities, and the plants they have to build for tar sands are massive, and before they get their money back I suspect that the price of solar and wind will have come down so much.答: 这对投资的潜在启示就是:要拥有地下储藏的东西,拥有重要的资源,不论是磷、钾、原油、铜、锡还是锌─还可以继续数下去。我对铝和铁矿石没有那么高的热情,就因为这两种矿产储备太丰富了。我也不会持有煤炭和含油砂。建造采煤设施非常昂贵,开采含油砂需要建设的设施也规模庞大。我怀疑远在投资方收回成本前,太阳能和风能的价格就已然大幅回落。So I wouldn#39;t use that, but I think oil, the metals and particularly the fertilizers, I would own--and the most important of all is food. The pressures on food are worse than anything else, and therefore, what is the solution? Very good farming, which can be done. The emphasis from an investor#39;s point of view is on very good farmland. It#39;s had a big run. You can never afford to ignore price and value, but from time to time you can get good investments in farmland, and if you#39;re prepared to go abroad, you can do it today. I wouldn#39;t be too risky. I would stay with distinctly stable countries--Australia, New Zealand, Uruguay, Brazil, Canada, of course, and the U.S. But I would look around, in what I call the nooks and crannies. And forestry is the same. Forestry is not a bad bargain, a little overpriced maybe, but it#39;s in a world where everything is overpriced today, once again, courtesy of incredibly low interest rates that push people into investing. A wicked plot of the Federal Reserve.所以我不会投资煤炭和含油砂,但是我会投资于原油、金属,特别是肥料─以及比所有这些都重要的粮食。当前,粮食压力比其它各方面的压力都大。那么,解决方案是什么呢?是精耕细作,而这完全可以实现。从投资者的角度来看,重点在于优质的耕地。耕地价格已经涨了很多。你当然不能忽视价格和价值,但是你可以不时地找到不错的耕地投资机会。如果你已经准备好了投资海外市场的话,那么你今天就可以出手了。我本人不愿冒太大风险。我会选择那些非常稳定的国家─比如澳大利亚、新西兰、乌拉圭、巴西、加拿大,当然还有美国。但是,我也会考虑一下那些称作“被遗忘角落”的国家。林业也是如此。林业投资不是会让你吃亏的生意,或许它的价格有点虚高,但是别忘了,我们正处于一个几乎每件东西都价格虚高的世界。不得不说,这都是不可思议的低利率所赐。这是美国联邦储备委员会不道德的伎俩。Q: Why is this problem so hard for us to deal with? You#39;ve railed against short-termism.问:为什么这个问题让我们如此难以应对?你一直抨击短期行为。A: A career politician has a very short horizon. They#39;re not really interested in problems that go out five or 10 years. Secondly, you have what they call the discount-rate effect, which is a dollar in 10 years has a much lower value to a corporation than a dollar today. So they#39;re only interested, at the corporate level, in the short term. And politicians, in the very short term. And you have a vested-interest effect. In other words, it#39;s very hard to get change when the people who are benefitting very nicely, thank you, from the current situation don#39;t want it. If the oil industry is making a bundle, which they are, they don#39;t want to change to a system that recognizes climate change and the need to have a tax on carbon. And they can fund right-wing think tanks, and they do.答: 职业政客的眼界是非常短浅的。他们并不真正关心那些五年或十年之后会出现的问题。第二,还有一个贴现率效应的问题,也就是说,对企业来说,十年之后1美元的价值要远低于今天的1美元。所以,从企业层面上讲,他们最关注短期效应。而政治家关心的是更短时期内的效应。此外,还有既得利益效应。换句话说,当从现状中获益匪浅的人不想改变现状的时候,改变就变得非常困难。如果石油行业正赚得盆满钵满───事实也是如此──他们就不想改变现状去建立一个关注气候变化及征收碳排放税的系统。他们可能资助右翼智库,事实上,他们也是这样做的。So you have vested interests fighting like mad to keep the situation the way it is. And that#39;s always the case. So change is difficult, and with our politicians with the short-term election problems, it#39;s nearly impossible. And when they depend so much on campaign contributions, and they find the campaign contributions come so much from the vested interests, the financial world, but more particularly the energy world, it#39;s a bloody miracle anything gets done.所以既得利益获得者会奋不顾身地保持现状。这是亘古不变的真理。因此,改变是困难的,再加上我们的政治家面临短期竞选的问题,改变几乎是不可能完成的任务。政治家对竞选献金极度依赖,而且他们发现竞选献金大多来自金融界等既得利益集团,特别是能源行业,在这种情况下,就会出现血淋淋的奇迹:什么事情都可以做。Q: And that long-term perspective is important, not only to changing society, but also to investing. As an investor, you#39;re known for that.问:长期展望非常重要,不仅对社会的改变是如此,对投资来讲也一样。作为一名投资人,您的眼光已经是众所周知。A: I like to get what I consider the central idea, which in the stock market is patience and value and mean reversion. And in society, it is resources and climate damage. That#39;s plenty to go on, and that#39;s a pretty strong focus. We have a shockingly short horizon in the stock market, as witnessed in the Internet bubble. And we have a shockingly short horizon about social problems, where all we want to hear is how rapid the growth will be and how good everything is.答: 我想指出我觉得是最核心的关注点,在股市中那就是耐心、价值和均值回归,在社会范畴中则是资源和气候灾害。需要做的还有很多,而这些则是重中之重。在股市中,人们关注的时间周期短暂得令人震惊,这在互联网泡沫中就可见一斑。人们对社会问题关注的时间周期也同样短得令人震惊,大家希望听到的无非是增长速度将有多快,以及万事都是多么地遂愿。Q: How about a stock forecast. You called the market#39;s initial 2009 rally, but by 2010 you were predicting #39;seven lean years.#39; So far, however, the market#39;s soared.问:您对股市作何展望?您成功地预测了股市在2009年初的涨势,但是到了2010年,您又预测股市将出现“七年不景气”。然而,到目前为止,股市却一再走高。A: And it can go a lot higher than this with the Fed pushing it. And we can have another real bubble. Based on the Fed#39;s history, that seems to be what they like. You know we had one in 2000 with Greenspan, and then we had a housing bubble and a financial bubble with Bernanke and Greenspan. And it looks like Bernanke is perfectly happy to keep the rates down and watch as stock prices rise. They do that because as the rising stock prices give you a little consumer kick, you feel richer--and then, when you least need it, the whole thing bites you, and the prices go back to fair price or lower, like they did in #39;09, and the consumer reacts, and you have a recession and a bad stock market. But they#39;ve had two of these, and they seem bound and determined to do it a third time. As I#39;ve said, it#39;s a workable definition of madness to keep doing the same thing and expect a different result.答: 在美联储的推动下,股指可能还会冲得更高。我们可能将迎来另一个真正的泡沫。基于美联储的历史,泡沫似乎是美联储愿意看到的景象。大家知道,我们在2000年格林斯潘掌舵时经历过一次泡沫;托贝南克(Bernanke)和格林斯潘的福,我们随后又迎来了房地产泡沫和金融泡沫。看起来,贝南克现在非常乐于将利率维持在低位并坐视股票价格飙升。他们这样做的原因是,股票价格走高给你带来些许消费的刺激,让你感觉自己更富有了。接着,当你最不希望事情发生变化时,整个形势突然间变得对你不利了,股票价格回归至均值甚至更低的水平,正像股市09年的情形一样。消费者作出反应,于是就出现了衰退和熊市。但是,尽管我们已经遭遇了两次泡沫,美联储似乎决心迎接第三次泡沫。就像我说的,这种希望种豆得瓜的做法符合“疯狂”的定义。Q: Like many Englishmen, you seem to regard Americans as wildly, fool-heartedly optimistic.问:与许多英国人一样,您似乎认为美国人是过于盲目乐观的。A: America is a very, very optimistic-biased society, as I believe, incidentally, Australia is, for whatever that means. We#39;re the two great optimistic societies. You can have a conversation about a housing bubble in England, and they#39;ll say, #39;oh, is that right? Let me see the data.#39; If you have one in Australia, you have World War III! They hate you. They hate you for years! [laughs] The idea that you could suggest that they were having a housing bubble. [laughs]答: 美国是一个非常、非常具有乐观倾向的社会;顺便提一下,我认为澳大利亚也是如此。美国和澳大利亚是两大乐观主义国家。当你在英国谈及房地产泡沫问题时,英国人会说:“哦?真的吗?让我看看数据。”当你在澳大利亚提出同样的问题时,第三次世界大战便会由此爆发。他们将对你恨之入骨。并且在几年之内都不会原谅你[笑]。只是因为你暗示他们可能正面临房地产泡沫。[笑]Q: So the stereotypes about us are true?问:所以这个关于美国人的固有印象是真的?A: Absolutely. Now, it#39;s been very useful in enterprise, in venture capital...in start-ups. We have more failures here than probably every developed country added together, but in consequence, when the smoke clears, we tend to end up with the Amazons and the Googles. It#39;s not an accident. We just throw more darts at the dartboard. The Germans are very conservative about throwing darts. We have an admirable risk-taking attitude, and we#39;re very tolerant of failure.答: 千真万确。乐观对企业、风险资本以及初创企业一直都非常有帮助。在美国,失败的案例可能比其它所有发达国家加起来还要多,但是结果是,当尘埃落定之时,亚马逊(Amazon)和谷歌(Google)这样的企业却应运而生。这不是一种偶然现象。我们只是向圆靶投出了更多飞镖而已。德国人对于投掷飞镖非常保守。我们则拥有令人敬佩的冒险精神,和对失败极高的容忍度。Q: We benefit from it?问:这点对美国人有益吗?A: Absolutely, but the downside is you#39;re willing to throw darts because you think you#39;re going to win. American entrepreneurs all know they#39;re going to win. Only 10 percent survive, but they all think they#39;re going to win.答: 绝对有益,不过也有不足之处,那就是你是认为自己会成功才愿意投掷飞镖的。美国企业家都认为自己会成功。虽然只有10%的企业能够生存下来,但所有企业家都会认为自己会取得成功。 /201310/262662

A Chinese investor who had just bought a French vineyard is feared dead in a helicopter crash that killed his son and is thought also to have claimed the lives of an aide and the vineyard#39;s previous owner.刚购买下法国葡萄庄园的中国投资者可能已经在直升机坠毁事故中丧生,同时还有他的儿子以及一位陪同和前葡萄园的拥有者。Lam Kok had completed the purchase of Chateau de La Riviere in the Aquitaine region of southwest France on Thursday, the vineyard#39;s marketing manager, Thierry Disclyn, told CNN.葡萄园的营销经理Thierry Disclyn告诉CNN说,Lam Kok周四完成了对法国西南部Chateau de La Riviere葡萄园的收购On Friday, Kok introduced himself to all the employees, and at about 5 p.m. local time decided to tour the estate by helicopter, Disclyn said.在周五,Lam Kok与所有员工进行了会面,在当地时间下午五点,决定乘坐直升机参观自己的产业,Thierry Disclyn说道。The helicopter, which was also carrying the vineyard#39;s previous owner, James Gregoire, Kok#39;s 11-year-old son Charles, and a representative of Lam Kok, Peng Wang, crashed into the Dordogne River.这架直升机上还有葡萄园的前庄主James Gregoire,Lam Kok的11岁儿子Charles,以及Lam Kok的一位代表Peng Wang,这架直升机坠入了多尔多涅河Police have recovered the body of Charles Kok but are still searching for the other bodies, Disclyn said.Thierry Disclyn说,警方已经找到了Charles Kok的尸体,但还在寻找别的尸体According to the local Sud Ouest newspaper, about 30 police officers and a team of divers are engaged in the search, which resumed at 8 a.m. local time.根据当地Sud Ouest报纸的报道,大约有30名警察和一个潜水队参与了这次搜救行动,并将于当地时间早上八点重新开始Lam Kok is the head of the Brilliant group, which specializes in the luxury hotel market, Sud Ouest said.Lam Kok 是Brilliant公司的董事长,专门经营奢华酒店,Sud Ouest说道。Kok wanted to turn the spectacular chateau building into a high-end resort and spa catering to wine enthusiasts, the newspaper said.Sud Ouest报纸报道称,Lam Kok想要把这个法国城堡建筑改造成高端度假区和温泉浴室,迎合葡萄酒喜好者的口味The 60-hectare Chateau de La Riviere estate, in Fronsac, east of Bordeaux, had belonged to James Gregoire since 2003. It was the largest of three vineyards owned by the Gregoire family in the region.占地60公顷的de La Riviere城堡位于波尔多东部,自2003年起就由James Gregoire所有,这是Gregoire家族在该区域所拥有的三大葡萄葡萄园中最大的一个 /201312/270153

Fresh off an official report that confirmed long-held fears over the state of China#39;s soil, new government figures show the majority of the country#39;s water remains polluted despite billions of dollars spent trying to clean it up. Reuters官方报告刚刚实长期以来人们担心的中国土壤污染状况,新出炉的官方数据又显示中国大部分地下水监测点水质差,尽管中国政府已花费数十亿美元试图治理水污染。Nearly three-fifths, or 59.6%, of China#39;s water was found to be either moderately or seriously polluted in 2013, the Ministry of Land and Resources said in its annual report on Tuesday ( pdf). 中国国土资源部在周二发布的年度报告中称,2013年中国水质较差和极差的监测点占总数的比例将近五分之三,达到59.6%。That#39;s a slight increase from 2012, when the figure was 57.4%. A little more than a tenth of the country#39;s water was #39;high quality#39; last year, according to the report, which didn#39;t specify how quality levels were determined. 这比2012年的比例57.4%有小幅上升。报告称,中国水质优良的监测点占总数的比例略高于10%。该报告没有说明水质等级是如何确定的。The ministry#39;s report is the latest evidence to underline the scale on environmental damage wrought by decades of hell-for-leather economic growth and the enormity of the challenge authorities face in cleaning it up. 国土资源部的这份报告是说明中国环境已受到严重污染、政府治污面临严峻挑战的最新据。中国几十年来的经济飞速增长导致国内环境受到巨大破坏。Last week, the Ministry of Land and Resources and the Ministry of Environmental Protection jointly released the results of a national soil survey that found close to a fifth of the country#39;s arable land is polluted, with around 3% suffering either moderate or serious pollution. The vast majority of that pollution came from inorganic sources such as heavy metals, most of which are byproducts of industry and mining. 上周,国土资源部和环境保护部联合发布了《全国土壤污染状况调查公报》,调查显示国内接近五分之一的可耕种土地已经受到污染,其中大约3%受到中等程度或严重污染。污染绝大部分来自重金属等无机污染物,这些重金属污染物是工业和矿业的副产品。While the data on soil pollution -- previously considered a state secret -- is new, authorities have been more open on the subject of water. Data from the resources ministry shows that 57% of the country#39;s water was either seriously or moderately polluted in 2010. In other words, while water pollution isn#39;t getting much worse, it isn#39;t getting better either. 这是土壤污染相关数据第一次在世人面前揭开面纱(之前都被当做国家机密),不过,当局对于水污染的现状则更为公开一些。国土资源部的数据显示,2010年,中国57%的水源已经达到重度或中度污染程度。换句话说,虽然水污染并没有大幅恶化,但也没变好。That#39;s despite massive government spending on water conservation in recent years. 政府近些年来确实也为水资源保护投入了很大力气,但是成效甚微。#39;Problems continue to occur in a lot of places. We can#39;t take this lightly,#39; said Liu Changming, a senior water researcher with the government-backed Chinese Academy of Sciences. 中国科学院高级水资源研究专家刘昌明说:许多地方仍然曝出水资源问题,对此我们不可轻视。China was reminded of just how serious it water pollution remains earlier this month, when residents of the city of Lanzhou were ordered to avoid drinking tap water following the discovery of levels of benzene some 20 times the national limit. The carcinogenic chemical was later found to have made its way into the city#39;s water supply as the result of a crude-oil leak. 本月早些时候,一场水质事件提醒中国勿忽视严重的水污染现状。兰州市市民被告知不要饮用自来水,因为自来水中所含的苯被发现超过国家标准线大约20倍。后来查明,这种致癌化学物质流入兰州市供水系统源于某原油管道的泄漏。The government was #39;alert to the problem and prepared to deal with it,#39; said Mr. Liu. #39;But it will take a long time to solve.#39; 刘昌明说,政府已经警惕到了水问题的严重性,准备着手予以解决。但他补充称,这要花上很长一段时间。 /201404/290981Today’s US-China joint announcement on climate change and energy is the most important advance on the climate change agenda in many years. While the full ramifications will only be known at the climate summit in Paris in December 2015, the two largest C02 emitters have finally spoken, and most importantly, they’ve spoken together. What they’ve said gives the world a fighting chance – and no doubt the last one – for climate safety.美国与中国周三就气候变化和能源问题发表联合声明,这是全球气候变化议程中多年来最重要的进展。虽然其全部意义要到2015年12月巴黎气候大会上才能充分浮现,但是世界最大的两个二氧化碳排放国终于作出了表态,最重要的是他们共同作出了表态。他们所发表的声明给全球带来了一次为实现气候安全而奋斗的机会——毫无疑问也是最后一次机会。The situation is stark. While the world’s governments agreed back in 2009 that we need to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius (relative to the pre-industrial era), in order to avoid massive damages from droughts, floods, extreme heat waves, and rising ocean levels, the brutal fact remains that the world is on course for a catastrophic rise of some 4 to 6 degrees by the end of the century. To avoid catastrophe, and stay below the 2 degree upper limit, CO2 emissions from energy use need to fall very sharply by mid century, and to reach net-zero emissions (“decarbonization”) by around 2070.形势是十分严峻的。早在2009年,世界各国政府就已达成共识,必须把全球气温上升幅度限制在2摄氏度以内(与工业化时代以前相比),才能避免干旱、洪灾、极端炎热天气及海平面上升导致的重大损失。尽管如此,一个依然存在的残酷现实是,全球仍处于灾难性的升温过程中,到本世纪末气温将升高大约4到6度。为避免灾难性后果并让温度的升高保持在2度的上限之内,必须在本世纪中叶以前大幅减少因消耗能源而排放的二氧化碳,并在2070年前后达到接近零排放(也就是“脱碳”)的水平。In short, the world will need to get almost entirely out of the fossil fuel business in the next half century or so, except for what can be continued safely with the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Such a deep transformation is feasible through a combination of three main steps: massive energy efficiency; a pervasive shift to low-carbon and zero-carbon electricity (notably wind, solar, geothermal, hydro, nuclear, and CCS); and the electrification of all vehicle transport and of heating and ventilation in residential and commercial buildings.简而言之,今后半个世纪左右全球必须接近完全摆脱化石燃料,只能继续使用那些能应用碳捕获与封存技术(CCS)的安全的化石燃料。这种深层次改革可以通过三个主要步骤来实现:大力提升能源使用效率;全面转向低碳和零碳电力技术(特别是风力、太阳能、地热、水力、核能以及碳捕获与封存技术);实现所有交通工具的电气化,以及住宅和商用建筑取暖和通风的电气化。Two kinds of breakthrough两大突破First, China, the world’s largest emitter by far in absolute terms (roughly 28 per cent of the world’s CO2 emissions in 2014) has agreed a clear target to reach a peak of CO2 emissions no later than 2030, with the intention of trying to peak earlier than 2030. The US’s failure to act decisively on its own emissions for two decades has long been defended by the Senate on the basis that the US should act only if China does as well. That bottleneck and excuse is ending.首先,中国同意设立明确目标,即二氧化碳排放量最晚在2030年达到峰值,并努力提前实现这一目标。中国是二氧化碳绝对排放量最大的国家,2014年中国约占全球二氧化碳排放量的28%。20年来美国未能在自身减排上采取果断措施,对此美国参议院的辩护理由一直是:只有中国采取了行动,美国才会采取相应措施。这一阻碍和借口已不复存在。Second, the US-China agreement has the necessary three components for deep transformation by mid-century. The agreement calls for:其次,美中协议包含本世纪中叶实现深层改革所需的三个必备组成部分。该协议规定了:1) short-term commitments by both countries to 20301) 两国到2030年的短期承诺2) deep decarbonization by mid-century, with the US re-stating the goal of an 80 per cent CO2 reduction by the US by 20502) 本世纪中叶实现深度脱碳,美国重申了2050年二氧化碳减排80%的目标3) a massive scale-up of research, development, demonstration, and diffusion (RDDamp;D) of low-carbon energy technologies. Specifically, China and the US committed to joint Ramp;D in building efficiency, clean vehicles CCS, smart cities, and other areas.3) 大举扩大对低碳能源技术的研究、开发、示范和推广(RDDamp;D)。具体来说,中国和美国承诺在建筑节能、清洁能源汽车碳捕捉及碳封存、智能城市等领域展开研发合作。What chance of success?成功的几率有多大?An announcement is just an announcement, of course. There are many crucial details and years of action that will make the difference between mere rhetoric and true climate safety. Both countries need to show how they intend to reach not only the short-term 2025-2030 goals, but also the mid-century deep decarbonization that is really the essence of the climate challenge. Short-term commitments are fine, but can easily be an illusion as well, with short-term steps of little long-term significance, unless the short-run measures are part of a long-term path out of carbon energy. The US and China have yet to put their cards on the table on how they intend to achieve deep decarbonization.当然,一个声明仅是声明而已。就许多关键细节和需要持续多年的行动而言,冠冕堂皇的言辞和真实的环境安全之间是存在区别的。两国都需要展示他们打算如何实现目标,不仅是到2025-2030年的短期目标,还有本世纪中叶的深层脱碳目标,后一个才是应对气候挑战的关键。短期承诺固然不错,但容易变成一种假象,只有短期措施而缺少长远意义,除非这些短期措施是一项摆脱碳能源的长期计划的组成部分。美国和中国尚未摊牌他们打算如何实现深度脱碳。Still, the G2 has now spoken, and together with the EU, which made its own bold announcements just recently, the world’s three biggest economies and largest emitters are now on course for a serious agreement in Paris. Others will join. The three-part structure of today’s announcement can serve as the right blueprint for a serious and historic global deal in Paris. And the arithmetic is clear: if we fail in Paris, we will fail to stay below 2 degrees. Paris is the last chance.不过,这两个大国终于作出了承诺,再加上近期才作出大胆声明的欧盟,全球三大经济体兼三大碳排放地区终于朝着在巴黎达成重要协议的方向迈进。其他国家也会加入进来。今日这份声明的三个部分可以作为未来巴黎那份重要的、历史性的全球协议的合适蓝图。而其中的得失也很清楚:如果我们不能达成巴黎协议,我们将无法把升温幅度控制在2摄氏度以下。巴黎是最后的机会。Not surprisingly, the incoming Republican Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell piped up immediately that he and his colleagues would oppose the deal. No doubt they will try. Yet my guess is that Mr McConnell and his buddies are soon going to learn a lesson in real democracy.不出所料,即将上任的参议院多数派领袖、共和党人米奇#8226;麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)马上放话称,他和他的同僚将反对这一协议。他们当然会反对。但我的猜想是,麦康奈尔和他的伙计们将很快领会到什么是真正的民主。While the fossil fuel lobby may have helped finance the Republican victories last week, the US public cares about its own survival and the world that their children will soon inherit. The public has tasted reality with Superstorm Sandy, with California’s record-breaking droughts, unprecedented heat waves, and repeated flooding of the eastern seaboard. The Koch brothers may have bought some 44,000 paid ads this fall to help put favoured coal and oil candidates over the top, but they did not buy the souls of the American people, who by a large majority will be gratified today by the announcements from Beijing.尽管共和党上周在中期选举中的胜利一定程度上或许得益于化石燃料说客提供的资金,但美国民众在乎自己的生存,在乎他们的孩子将很快继承的这个世界。气候现实已经让公众体会切肤之痛——桑迪飓风(Superstorm Sandy)、加州一次次创纪录的大旱、一次次前所未有的热浪、以及东海岸地区反复发生的洪灾。科赫(Koch)兄弟或许买下了今秋的4.4万个付费广告,帮助他们青睐的、代表煤炭和石油业利益的候选人赢得了选举,但两兄弟没有买下美国人的良心,今天听到美中在北京发表的联合声明,大多数美国人会感到高兴。The climate is heating up but so too are the climate negotiations. Today’s announcement is a major step forward for the vast majority of humanity who are seeking a safer planet.全球气温在升高,气候谈判的热度同样也在升高。在绝大多数希望地球变得更安全的人眼中,昨日的声明是个巨大的进步。Jeffrey Sachs is the director of The Earth Institute at Columbia University in New York and author of ‘To Move the World: JFK’s Quest for Peace本文作者杰弗里#8226;萨克斯(Jeffrey Sachs)是位于纽约的美国哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)地球研究所(Earth Institute)所长,著有《推动世界:肯尼迪对和平的追求》(To Move the World: JFK’s Quest for Peace)一书 /201411/342288

On a bad day, driving the 30 kilometers from Beijing#39;s airport to the city#39;s center can take up to an hour. If urban planners have their way, residents of the megalopolis of Beijing and Tianjin and the surrounding province of Hebei in six years will be able to cross that entire urban sprawl in roughly the same amount of time. 赶上不顺的时候,从北京机场到市中心的30公里路程,开车可能要花上一个小时。如果市政规划部门进展顺利,北京、天津两大都市以及附近河北省的居民六年后将能够以同样这么多的时间横穿京津冀。On Tuesday, official Chinese media, citing a recent media interview with a Beijing Municipal Commission of Transport official, said that 9,500 kilometers of railway lines will crisscross the regional hub of 100 million people -- awkwardly called Jing-Jin-Ji -- by 2020. Under the plan, dwellers of the two-city, one-province urban jungle will be able to travel between major centers by rail in just 60 minutes.周二,中国官方媒体援引北京市交通委员会一位官员最近接受采访时的讲话称,到2020年,拥有1亿人口的京津冀将形成9,500公里的铁路网。根据这一计划,这两市一省的居民坐火车只需60分钟就能完成京津冀两座主要城市之间的穿行。That should be good news to Beijing#39;s beleaguered commuters, many of whom use private cars to get to work giving rise to some of the worst traffic congestion in the world. 对于在北京饱受通勤之苦的上班族来说,这应该是个好消息。他们中的许多人开私家车上班,使北京出现了全球最严重的交通拥堵。Every workday in 2013, traffic jams in the city lasted one hour and 50 minutes on average, up 25 minutes from the year-earlier period, according to the commission. 北京市交通委员会的数据显示,北京在2013年平均每个工作日会有持续1小时50分钟的交通拥堵,拥堵时间较上年延长了25分钟。During vacation periods, traffic jams can sometimes be even worse as hordes take to the roads to escape the capital. In the recent May Day holiday, a traffic jam of 55 kilometers in length formed on one of the highways leaving Beijing, according to the website of state-controlled China Radio International. 在节假日,交通拥堵情况有时会更加严重,因为会有很多人开车离开北京。官方媒体中国国际广播电台(China Radio International)网站的消息称,在最近这个五一劳动节,出京方向的一条高速路上曾出现长达55公里的拥堵。For now there appears to be no sign of a let-up in Chinese desire to own a car. Last year almost 18 million passenger cars were sold in the country, making it the world#39;s largest market. Consultancy IHS Automotive forecasts that figure to grow by just over 10% this year. 目前看来,中国民众买车的愿望似乎还没有减弱的迹象。去年,中国的乘用车销量将近1,800万辆,从而使中国成为全球最大的汽车市场。咨询公司IHS Automotive预计,今年中国乘用车销量的增幅将略高于10%。Experts say poor urban planning is also at fault and say cities like Beijing put too much emphasis on building infrastructure and not enough on integrating different transport modes such as rail and road or building up robust public transportation systems. 专家称,糟糕的市政规划也有责任。他们说,北京等城市过于重视修建基础设施,但却没有对整合铁路、公路等不同的交通方式以及建立强大的公共交通体系予以足够重视。Still, Beijing city planners#39; increased attention to suburban rail offers some hope that life in what combined would be the world#39;s largest city might be about to get a little easier. 不过,随着北京市政规划部门对城市铁路更加关注,人们会产生这样的希望:在一体化之后的京津冀这个全球最大城市,人们的生活可能会变得轻松一点。 /201405/295018Crowdfunding campaign for Oshawa twins raises more than ,000为奥沙华双胞胎进行的募资活动筹集了,000Though Neocate, the special infant formula their twins must have, is still not covered by insurance, donations are helping out — including ,000 from a local car dealership’s owner.尽管这对双胞胎必需的婴幼儿配方奶粉,纽康特(Neocate),不属于保险范围,然而捐款帮助他们解决了这一问题,包括一位汽车经销商捐赠的,000。After the Toronto Star and other media reported on the difficulties facing an Oshawa couple struggling to pay for infant formally their twins need to eat, a crowdfunding campaign has raised more than ,000 to help them.一对奥沙华夫妇无力付双胞胎必需的奶粉,多伦多星报和其他媒体报道后,发起了募资活动,为其筹集了,000。Trevor Grant and Jamie Barrette had twins early this year, but they were born with a birth defect common in premature babies. Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) prevented the twins (their fourth and fifth children) from digesting regular food.Trevor Grant和Jamie Barrette今年生下一对双胞胎,然而却有早产儿中常见的先天缺陷。坏死性小肠结肠炎(NEC)使这对双胞胎(他们的第四个和第五个孩子)无法消化常规食品。Eventually, doctors prescribed a special, amino-acid based formula called Neocate, which allow the babies to digest the nutrients they need without risking damage to their digestive systems.最后,医生为他们开了一种特殊的被称为纽康特的氨基酸型配方奶粉,使这对婴儿可以消化他们所需要的营养,而不损害消化系统。However, Neocate is very expensive (Barrette estimates they currently spend about per day on the formula) and is not covered by many insurance plans, including theirs.然而,纽康特非常昂贵(据Barrette预算,他们现在每天为这种奶粉花费大约),然而,却不属于保险范围。This is because the formula is considered a nutritional supplement, not medicine, and lacks a Drug Identification Number. While some plans will cover it through a special discretionary fund, Barrette and Grant cannot expense the formula to their insurer, Sun Life.因为这种配方被视为营养补充品,不是药品,缺乏药物鉴定编号。尽管一些保险计划可通过一种特殊的可自由配的资金为其投保。然而,Barrette和Grant无法让其保险公司加拿大永明金融集团(Sun Life)为其报销这种配方。Despite multiple pleas for an exception, Barrette says the insurance company has not budged, and there has so far been no word from Grant’s employer, through which they are insured.尽管很多人请求为这对夫妇破例,然而,Barrette说,保险公司并没有让步,目前Grant的雇主还没有透露任何消息,Grant夫妇是通过其雇主投保。But thanks to substantial help from the community, including the crowdfunding success, Barrette says her faith in humanity has been restored.然而,由于社会的大力援助,包括这次募资成功,Barrette说,她又重新恢复了对人性的信任。“It’s been amazing. The people that have just reached out to us are amazing. We would be completely lost without them,” she said.她说,“太不可思议了,这些向我们伸出援手的人们太好了!如果没有他们,我们就彻底完了。”“And it’s complete strangers and just sweet, and the things they do for people they don’t even know, it warms your heart.”“对我们来说,完全是陌生人,却那么好,为他们不认识的人做这些事情,让人的心里暖暖的。”译文属原创,,不得转载。 /201509/401549

  • 网上中文湖州曙光整形美容医院种睫毛怎么样
  • 湖州市脸部激光美白多少钱
  • 医苑时讯湖州治疗痘痘的医院天涯指南
  • 德清县手臂激光脱毛多少钱安知识
  • 湖州老年斑如何消除咨询大全长兴县光子脱毛多少钱
  • 飞健康湖州哪里可以隆下巴
  • 湖州市第三人民医院开双眼皮多少钱
  • 康泰共享湖州曙光整形美容医院去痘怎么样搜索健康
  • 湖州哪里整形比较好放心知识
  • 湖州曙光整形美容医院激光祛斑手术多少钱
  • 湖州曙光医院好吗?QQ对话德清县第三人民医院美容中心
  • 湖州市脂肪丰胸价格乐视知识
  • 丽卫生湖州去老年斑多少钱
  • 湖州曙光医院割双眼皮的价格
  • 湖州市隆胸多少钱百姓解答
  • 湖州去斑的费用度在线湖州曙光整形美容医院除腋毛怎么样
  • 99资讯安吉县激光全身脱毛价格度互动
  • 湖州玻尿酸丰脸康资讯
  • 浙江省湖州去痘医院哪家好
  • 湖州曙光整形医院打瘦脸针好不好QQ卫生
  • 美典范解放军第九八医院激光祛痘手术多少钱安分类
  • 湖州腋臭手术哪家医院好
  • 挂号养生湖州人民医院抽脂多少钱中医口碑
  • 湖州毛发种植医院中医生活
  • 国际解答湖州中心医院抽脂多少钱导医健康
  • 湖州好整形医院
  • 湖州去除全身疤痕多少钱
  • 湖州福音医院治疗疤痕多少钱
  • 湖州激光脱毛价格表
  • 湖州做鼻子那里好百科大夫
  • 相关阅读
  • 湖州怎样永久去除胡子88问答
  • 长兴县纹眼线手术多少钱
  • 安心诊疗湖州市曙光医院激光去斑
  • 湖州整形美容医院医专家
  • 湖州曙光美容整形医院脱毛手术多少钱
  • 浙江省湖州哪家隆鼻医院比较好健常识德清县中医院做双眼皮手术多少钱
  • 浙江湖州曙光医疗美容纹眉毛多少钱
  • 时空爱问湖州安吉县大腿抽脂价格多少安中文
  • 浙江省湖州去蒙古斑价格
  • 湖州市第一人民医院打瘦腿针多少钱
  • (责任编辑:郝佳 UK047)