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青岛月经失调会导致什么

2018年10月17日 20:04:21 | 作者:家庭医生专家 | 来源:新华社
In the past 18 months, China has been enthusiastically dredging sand from the bottom of the South China Sea and building artificial islands in disputed waters. During that period, according to Ashton Carter, US secretary of defence, Beijing has reclaimed more land than all the other claimants put together over the history of the dispute. True, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Taiwan have all built islands to bolster their territorial claims. Yet Beijing’s actions dwarf those efforts in both speed and scale.过去18个月,中国一直在南中国海争议水域热火朝天地抽沙建造人工岛。根据美国国防部长阿什#8226;卡特(Ashton Carter)的说法,这一时期中国填海造地的面积,超过了其他所有声索国自有争端以来造岛面积的总和。越南、菲律宾、马来西亚和台湾确实都曾人工造岛,以持它们的领土主张。然而,与中国政府的行为相比,它们的举动不论在速度上还是规模上都相形见绌。The exercise is being carried out in a state of secrecy. No one knows quite what China is up to nor what it hopes to achieve. The lack of transparency is unnerving given China’s territorial ambitions. With little or no basis in international law, it lays claim to virtually all of the South China Sea, asserting ownership of everything within a nine-dash line hugging the coast of the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam. One theory is that Beijing wants to build a runway in order to enforce an air defence identification zone over the entire sea. Beijing should desist from such an unnecessary provocation.中国政府的这一举动,是在一种秘密状态下进行的。没有人确切知道中国计划做什么,希望达成什么目的。考虑到中国的领土野心,这种缺乏透明度的状况令人紧张。中国声称对紧贴菲律宾、马来西亚和越南海岸线的所谓“九段线”内的所有水域拥有主权,这块水域实质上涵盖了几乎整个南中国海。这一声明基本上没有或者说完全没有国际法依据。有一种看法认为,中国政府想要修建一座简易机场,以便在整个南中国海上空划设一个防空识别区。中国政府应该停止这种没有必要的挑衅行为。In the run-up to this weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue, a regional security summit held in Singapore, Washington has begun to push back. This month, it flew a P-8 Poseidon aircraft with a CNN television crew on board over one of China’s new islands, eliciting a sharp warning from the Chinese navy. The US says it has detected artillery pieces and has reserved the right to sail warships within 12 miles of the newly created islands. This weekend, Mr Carter made it clear the US would “fly, sail and operate wherever international law allowsand said China’s act of “turning an underwater rock into an airfieldin no way conferred sovereign rights. Chinese Admiral Sun Jianguo responded that Beijing’s actions were “justified, legitimate and reasonableand were intended to provide “international public services His words will bring little comfort to the Asian nations that feel threatened by China’s behaviour.周末在新加坡举行地区防务峰会“香格里拉对话Shangri-La Dialogue)之前,美国政府就已经对中国这一行为施加了压力。本月美国曾派出一架P-8A海神反潜P-8 Poseidon),载着美国有线新闻CNN)的一个电视节目摄制组,飞越中国一个新造岛屿的上空,结果到中国海军严厉警告。美国表示,已经侦测到大炮等军事设施,并保留派遣军舰航行至新造岛2海里以内的权利。周末,卡特更明确地表示,美国将“在国际法许可的范围内飞行、航行及执行任务”,并表示中国“将水下礁石变成机场”的行为根本不能使其获得主权。中国海军上将孙建国则回应称,中国政府的举措“合理、合法、合情”,目的是提供“国际公益务”。对于那些因中国所为而感觉受到威胁的亚洲国家来说,孙建国的说法不会起到什么安慰作用。In the short term, both China and the US need to ratchet down tensions. All nations, including China, should give thought to Mr Carter’s call for a moratorium on new island construction. The atmosphere would then be more conducive to conclude a code of conduct that could prevent accidents and unnecessary provocations in future. China should also spell out exactly what its nine-dash claim means and explain what it hopes to achieve through island construction. It should reiterate its commitment to freedom of navigation. For its part, the US should stop grandstanding via the television cameras and should think hard before it sails warships past Chinese-built islands. The danger is that Beijing will feel obliged to respond in kind.从短期来看,中美都需要做出缓和紧张局势的动作。各方应考虑卡特关于暂停建设新岛屿的呼吁,包括中国在内。届时气氛将更有利于缔结一项行为准则,以在未来防止突发事件和不必要的挑衅。中国也应阐明九段线声明的含义,并解释中方希望通过岛屿建设达成什么目的。中国还应重申对航行自由原则的承诺。美国则应停止在电视上哗众取宠,对于派军舰驶近中国新建岛屿的事情应三思。美方这类举动可能招致危险,因为北京方面将感到有必要作出回应。In the longer run, there is a more fundamental issue at stake. China’s actions are nothing less than the beginning of a challenge to US dominance in the Pacific. Given its economic might, that is hardly surprising, nor need it be threatening. Most countries in the region want to strike a balance between the ambitions of a rising China and the comfort of US presence. At the moment, the two countries are on a slow, but unmistakable collision course. The trick will be to bind both China and the US into a wider, regional security framework that establishes rules of the road and of the sea and the air. Such rules will have to have widesp support, including from the two most powerful Pacific powers themselves. The status quo is probably unsustainable. Yet it will not be in the region’s interests simply to replace the Pax Americana with a Pax Sinica.从长远来看,这件事关系到一个更根本的问题。中国的行动仅仅是挑战美国在太平洋主导地位的开端。鉴于中国的经济实力,这点不足为奇,也不需要认为是个威胁。该地区的大多数国家都希望,在崛起的中国的雄心与美国存在的安慰感之间能够达到一种平衡。中美两国目前正处于缓慢的、但明显会冲突的路线上。解决之道是将中美两国捆绑到一个更广泛的地区安全架构中,制定海陆空的国际交通规则。这些规则必须得到广泛持,包括两个最强大的太平洋大国本身。现状可能是无法持续的。然而以“中国治下的和平Pax Sinica)简单地取代“美国治下的和平Pax Americana)并不符合地区利益。来 /201506/378301North Korea has blasted the US for imposing fresh sanctions against it, reiterating its denial of involvement in a cyber attack on Sony Pictures and calling the US move hostile and repressive.朝鲜周日严厉谴责了美国对其实施的最新制裁,重申该国未参与针对索尼电Sony Pictures)的网络攻击,并称美国此举是充满敌意的高压手段。North Korea’s foreign ministry accused Washington of “groundlesslystirring up hostility toward Pyongyang and vowed to strengthen its defensive posture.朝鲜外交部指责美国政府“毫无根据”地煽动对朝鲜的敌意,并承诺将强化其防御立场。“The policy persistently pursued by the US to stifle the DPRK, groundlessly stirring up bad blood towards it, would only harden its will and resolution to defend the sovereignty of the country,the ministry was ed as saying by North Korea’s official KCNA news agency.朝鲜官方新闻通讯社朝中社(KCNA)援引朝鲜外交部的话称:“美国持续遏制朝鲜的政策、毫无根据地煽动对朝鲜的仇恨,只会增强朝鲜保卫本国主权的意愿和决心。”“The persistent and unilateral action taken by the White House to slap ‘sanctionsagainst the DPRK patently proves that it is still not away from inveterate repugnancy and hostility towards the DPRK,it said on Sunday.“美国白宫为‘制裁’朝鲜所持续采取的单方面行动,显然明美国仍然没有消除对朝鲜根深蒂固的憎恶和敌意。”Barack Obama has ratcheted up pressure on North Korea after a damaging cyber attack on Sony Pictures, imposing new sanctions on agencies and officials linked to its arms trading and intelligence establishment.美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)上周五加大了对朝鲜施压的力度,针对朝鲜武器交易部门和情报机构及其官员实施了新的制裁。The US president on Friday authorised the Treasury to designate three entities and 10 individuals as agencies or officials controlled by the North Korean government, denying them access to the US financial system and barring them from doing business with the US in an attempt to increase financial pressure on the regime.奥巴马批准美国财政部家实体机构和10名个人列为“受朝鲜政府控制”的机构或官员,禁止他们利用美国金融系统或与美国展开业务往来。此举旨在加大对朝鲜政府的金融压力。The decision to impose new sanctions came two weeks after the White House first publicly blamed North Korea for the Sony attack, as officials grappled with how to punish a regime that is aly economically isolated and severely impoverished.在美国决定对朝鲜实施新的制裁两周前,美国政府首次就索尼电影受到网络攻击公开指责朝鲜。美国政府官员当时已在考虑如何惩罚这个已在经济上处于孤立且严重贫困的国家。The Sony cyber attack saw employee pay details, health records, social security numbers and other personal data dumped online as the studio geared up for the release of The Interview, a film satirising North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.在索尼遭受网络攻击事件中,该公司员工的薪资细节、健康记录、社保号码以及其它个人数据被泄露至网上。当时,索尼电影正准备上映一部讽刺朝鲜领导人金正Kim Jong Un)的电影《刺杀金正恩The Interview)。North Korea has denied responsibility for the attack, the scale of which the Federal Bureau of Investigation has characterised as unprecedented.美国联邦调查局(FBI)称此次攻击的规模是“空前”的。朝鲜一直否认参与此次网络攻击。The primary targets of the new sanctions are officials connected with its defence industry.美国新一轮制裁的主要目标是与朝鲜国防部有关联的官员。Most of the individuals included in Friday’s order work for Pyongyang’s primary arms dealer and exporter, the Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation, in countries such as Russia, Iran and Syria. North Korea’s main intelligence organisation, Reconnaissance General Bureau, has also been targeted.制裁名单中的多数个人在俄罗斯、伊朗和叙利亚等国供职于朝鲜主要武器交易商和出口商朝鲜矿业开发贸易公Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation)。朝鲜主要情报机构侦查总局(Reconnaissance General Bureau)也在被制裁之列。“Today’s actions are driven by our commitment to hold North Korea accountable for its destructive and destabilising conduct,said Jack Lew, US Treasury secretary.美国财政部部长杰#8226;Jack Lew)表示:“今日的举措是因为我们承诺要让朝鲜对其破坏性行为负责。”South Korea supports the US decisions to tighten sanctions on North Korea, with Seoul’s foreign ministry calling it an “appropriatemeasure against the isolated nation’s persistent provocations.韩国对美国加大对朝制裁的决定表示持。韩国外交部称,此举是针对这个孤立国家持续挑衅行为的“恰当”举措。In contrast to Pyongyang’s hostile rhetoric against Washington, North Korea appears to be reaching out to South Korea.与对美国的敌对论调形成对比的是,平壤方面似乎正在向韩国伸出橄榄枝。Mr Kim, North Korea’s supreme leader, said in his New Year’s speech that he was open to a summit with his South Korean counterpart. Seoul’s unification ministry said any talks between the leaders of the two Koreas must be held without conditions.朝鲜最高领导人金正恩在新年讲话中表示,他愿意与韩国领导人召开峰会。韩国统一部表示,朝韩两国领导人的会谈必须在不设任何先决条件的情况下进行。来 /201501/352424

Swedens Prince marries ex-model瑞典王子迎娶前模特Swedens Prince Carl Philip married former model and reality TV star Sofia Hellqvist in the chapel of the royal palace in Stockholm on Saturday.当地时间13日,瑞典王子卡尔·菲利普在首都斯德哥尔王室教堂与前模特、真人秀明星索菲娅·赫尔奎斯特完婚。It is the first time in centuries that a Swedish commoner has become a princess of Sweden.这是瑞典几世纪以来首次出现平民王妃;Its a real Cinderella story,; says royal expert Roger Lundgren.王室专家罗杰·隆格伦表;这是一个真实版灰姑娘的故事;。The 36-year-old prince, third in line to the throne, was visibly nervous during the ceremony. After a long wait at the altar, the prince struggled to put the wedding ring on his brides finger.现年36岁的菲利普王子是瑞典王位顺位继承人,他在婚礼上显然很紧张,在圣坛前花了很久才总算给索菲娅戴上了婚戒。The couple started dating in and announced their engagement in June 2014.这对新人009年开始交往014月宣布订婚。来 /201506/380685

China gathered defence officials and experts from across the Asia-Pacific in Beijing Friday for a three-day security forum intended to boost the Asian giants influence on the global stage. The Xiangshan, or Fragrant Hills, conference comes as tensions rise between Washington and Beijing, the regions two largest economic and military powers, over the latters construction of artificial islands in disputed South China Sea waters.周五在北京,中国召集亚太地区国防官员和专家,开展了为期三天的安全论坛,其目的是增加亚洲大国中国在世界舞台的影响力。中美是亚太地区两大经济军事强国,但就中国在南海有争议的海域建造人工岛事件导致两国关系紧张,这也是促成本次香山会议的主要原因。Five other countries in the region have rival claims to parts of the South China Sea -- four of them members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) -- and the disputes have sometimes spilled over into confrontations as vessels from the competing countries spar over fishing grounds and resource extraction.其他五个国家也在这一地区对南海主权问题持有争议—其中四国是东南亚国家联盟成员—这些竞争国之间也会因各国船只在渔场和资源开采问题上产生争端,有时甚至激化成军事对抗。Beijing offered to hold joint military exercises with ASEAN members next year in the South China Sea, the defence ministry said on its official Sina Weibo, a Chinese version of Twitter. The conference, the sixth of its kind, will be attended by 60 official delegations and 130 scholars, according to organisers.中国国防部在新浪微上(中国版twitter)发布消息,称北京提议明年在南海地区与东南亚国家联盟举行联合军事演习。类似会议已举办过五场,此次是第六次会议,根据组织者表示,60个官方代表团30名学者将出席本次活动。It is part of Chinas broader effort to increase its international influence, which has also seen the creation of the multi-billion-dollar Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The event will give Beijing ;a louder voice;, according to a comment piece in the state-run China Daily newspaper, which added that it will help correct characterisations of China as ;aggressive;.这也是中国为扩大国际影响力而作出广泛努力的部分体现,这种努力也表现在价值几十亿美元亚洲基础设施投资的成立。根据中国国营的中国日报一文章表示,此次活动将会给予中国“更响亮的声音”,并补充道这将会修正中国侵略性一说法。The Xiangshan meeting followed an informal gathering of defence ministers from the 10-member ASEAN bloc in the Chinese capital on Friday. The group includes Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, all of which have rival South China Sea claims, as does non-ASEAN member Taiwan.本周五香山会议后,东盟集0国国防部长将在北京举办一次非正式聚会。参加会议的包括文莱、马来西亚、菲律宾、越南,这些国家都与中国在南海领域有领土争端,还有非东盟成员台湾。The gatherings headline speaker is Hun Sen, the prime minister of Cambodia, which has close relations with China. It is not a claimant in the South China Sea and has backed Beijings stance that ASEAN should stay out of the dispute.聚会的标题议长是柬埔寨总理洪森,柬埔寨与中国关系密切,它与中国在南海没有领土争端,并持中国的立场,认为东盟国家应远离南海争端。来 /201510/404561

The US Congress is putting pressure on the World Bank to preserve its social and environmental rules for projects in developing countries amid fears that the emergence of rivals backed by China may force it to weaken standards.美国国会对世界银World Bank)施压,要求后者对发展中国家的项目保持一贯的社会和环境标准。目前有人担心,中国持的对手的出现,可能会迫使世行降低标准。The World Bank is next year expected to wrap up a review of its safeguards, which were introduced in the 1980s in response to criticism of environmental damage and rights violations linked to bank-funded megaprojects.预计世行明年将完成对其防护机制的重新审议,这些防护措施是在上世纪80年代推出的,目的是回应相关批评,这些批评称,世行资助的大型项目导致了环境损害和侵犯人权行为。But environmentalists fear rising competition from a new Brics bank and China-backed Asian infrastructure fund mean that review will inevitably lead to lower standards.但环保人士担心,新的金砖和中国持的亚洲基础设施基金带来的更多竞争意味着,世行的重新审议难免带来标准降低。A spending bill signed into law by US President Barack Obama on Tuesday includes tough requirements for the Treasury department, which oversees relations with the World Bank. In particular it calls for the administration to instruct the US executive director at the bank to vote against any project that is subject to environmental or social standards deemed weaker than those now in place.美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)周二签署为法律的一项出法案,对美国财政部提出了严格的要求(美国财政部负责控管美国与世行的关系)。具体而言,该法案呼吁奥巴马政府指示美国驻世行执行董事投票反对任何降低现行环境或社会标准的项目。In a letter sent to Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew on Monday and obtained by the Financial Times, three senior Democratic senators said they were concerned that a draft released by the bank in July “may represent a dilution of existing protections英国《金融时报》获得了3位民主党资深参议员周一发给美国财政部长雅各#8226;Jacob Lew)的信,信中表示,他们担心,世月发布的草案“可能代表着对现行防护措施的弱化”。Among the issues cited by the senators was a proposal that would allow projects to be approved and funds to be disbursed before environmental and social concerns such as those over the relocation of people were addressed properly. That, they said, would reduce the bank’s leverage over governments and could see “funds wasted这些参议员提到了一项提案,该提案将允许世行在相关环境和社会问题(比如居民迁移)得到妥善解决之前,先行对项目放行和提供资金。他们说,这可能降低世行对有关国家政府的影响力,可能导致“资金浪费”。“The World Bank has drafted these proposed safeguards to become more nimble and competitive,Senators Robert Menendez, Barbara Boxer and Edward Markey wrote. “But we believe these safeguards will hurt the World Bank’s efficiency, undermining its ability to compete with other development banks.”“世行起草这些拟议防护措施的目的,是为了变得更灵活、更有竞争力。”参议员罗伯#8226;梅南德兹(Robert Menendez)、芭芭拉#8226;克Barbara Boxer)和爱德华#8226;马基(Edward Markey)写道,“但我们认为这些措施将损害世行的效率,削弱其与其他开发竞争的能力。”The Washington-based World Bank “sets the bar for international development banks by raising standards, not by lowering them the senators wrote.几位参议员写道,总部位于华盛顿的世行“应该通过提高标准(而不是降低标准)来为国际开发树立标杆”。A US Treasury spokeswoman said the US considered the World Bank’s existing safeguards “an essential tooland put “great weighton the input from Congress.美国财政部的一名女发言人表示,美国认为世行现有的防护措施是“必不可少的手段”,国会议员的意见值得“高度重视”。The US has been lobbying countries behind closed doors not to join the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Fund launched by China earlier this year. In public, US officials have also repeatedly raised questions about what sort of environmental and labour standards the new fund would operate with and what impact its creation might have on other lenders.美国一直在秘密游说各国不要加入中国今年早些时候发起的亚洲基础设施投资基金(Asian Infrastructure Investment Fund)。美国官员在公开场合也一直在不断对这基金将遵循的环保和劳工标准、以及它的成立对其他开发的可能影响提出质疑。The World Bank insists the review of its environmental and social safeguards is badly needed to modernise a system that is decades old and unnecessarily bureaucratic and burdensome.世行坚称,现行环境和社会防护措施体系已实行数十年,并且无必要地官僚和繁琐,急需重新审议,使其跟上时代。“We will have a stronger, more modern set of safeguards at the end of this process, and we are comfortable with the provisions in the [new] US legislation,Charles Di Leva, the bank’s chief counsel for environmental and international law, told the FT in an emailed statement.世行环境和国际法首席法律顾问查尔#8226;迪莱Charles Di Leva)通过电邮向英囀?金融时报》表示:“这一过程完成后,我们将拥有一套更强健、更现代化的防护措施,我们也能轻松满足美国(新)法中的规定。”But activists still remain sceptical and concerned over the implications of the proposed changes.但活动人士仍对拟议变化的影响感到怀疑和担忧。“If the World Bank sends a retrograde signal this could lead to an even more rapid race to the bottom than we have aly seen,said Stephanie Fried, executive director of the Ulu Foundation, a campaign group.活动团体Ulu Foundation的执行主任斯蒂芬#8226;弗里Stephanie Fried)表示,“如果世行发出一个倒退的信号,可能导致我们目睹的逐底竞赛进一步加快。”来 /201412/350057

The “global war on terrorwas shot down in a hale of ridicule. Sceptics scoffed that President George W Bush’s GWOT was not global and it was not a war since terrorism is a tactic, not an enemy. On taking office as US president in , Barack Obama quietly dropped the term.The GWOT may have been a clumsy phrase and an inexact idea but, sadly, linguistic quibbles have not removed the underlying issue. However you want to label it, the world has a problem with jihadi violence and it is getting worse.There are two specific ways in which the threat from militant Islamism has worsened over the past five years. First, jihadi groups are operating in more parts of the world. Second, the frequency of attacks and number of deaths is increasing.The massacre of 148 people, mainly children, at a school in Peshawar on December 16 was the worst atrocity in Pakistan since 2007. It was followed, this month, by the murder of up to 2,000 people by Boko Haram in Nigeria, and the killing of 17 in two separate attacks in Paris.Three brutal attacks on three separate continents give the impression that the frequency of Islamist terror attacks is rising. That impression is confirmed by the data.A recent study by the Rand Corporation identified 49 Salafist-Jihadi groups operating around the world in 2013, compared with 28 in 2007. These groups staged 950 recorded attacks in 2013, up from 100 six years earlier. And that Rand report was published before a big surge in violence in Nigeria. A recent US state department report estimated that 18,000 people were killed by terrorism in 2013 but also noted that the number of Americans killed was very low and going down.That decline in the numbers killed by terrorism in the west ensured the problem received only sporadic attention in the US and Europe. But, in the rest of the world, the number of lawless areas in which jihadi militias can freely operate and train has increased.A decade ago, the main area of concern for western counter-terrorism efforts was Afghanistan and the border areas of Pakistan with Somalia another significant worry. But now the self-styled Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis) controls a large swath of Syria and Iraq, including Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city.In Africa, Boko Haram possibly inspired by the success of Isis has also seized territory and now controls a part of northern Nigeria the size of Belgium, as well as threatening neighbouring states such as Cameroon and Nigeria. Much of Libya has slipped into violent anarchy and jihadism is also endemic in Yemen.The obvious questions are why the problem is escalating and what needs to be done. In the solipsistic world of US politics, it is natural for politicians to assume the problem somehow begins in Washington. Democrats cite President Bush’s decision to invade Iraq. The Republicans claim President Obama withdrew from Iraq prematurely.Actually, recent history teaches ambiguous lessons about the impact of western military intervention. The failure of the US to intervene earlier in Syria is sometimes blamed for the rise of Isis. On the other hand, western military intervention in Libya helped to reduce the country to anarchy creating space for jihadi groups to thrive. In reality, this is a problem that is not primarily about US foreign policy and the iniquities of the west. In recent years, every single permanent member of the UN Security Council has been hit. The US was struck on September 11 2001. The UK experienced the 7/7 bombings that killed London commuters in 2005. Russia has waged a long and brutal struggle with Chechen jihadis. China has experienced a bombing in Tiananmen Square and killings around the country. Now France has been struck. India, too, is on the frontline.Tempting as it is for western powers to make common cause with all countries that have been hit by Islamist terror, it is also politically difficult since that potentially involves accepting the Russian narrative on Chechnya, the Israeli narrative on Gaza and the Chinese view of Qinjiang.The factors behind the recent upsurge in violence include the increased fragility of several states in the aftermath of the revolutions in the Arab world as well as the amplifying effect of social media, which allows jihadi messages to sp fast and to reach ever-larger audiences.As Islamist militias have gained ground, so the conflict with them has come increasingly to resemble a conventional war. There are now several parts of the world where regular armies are battling jihadi groups for control of territory. American and European air-forces are bombing Isis. The Nigerian army, aided by troops from Chad and Niger, is fighting Boko Haram albeit not very effectively. The French army deployed in Mali to beat back a jihadi threat. The Pakistanis, goaded by the attacks on Peshawar, have renewed military action against the Taliban.“全球反恐战争”曾在一阵奚落中被击落在地。怀疑论者讥笑称,乔#8226;W#8226;布什(George W Bush)的全球反恐战争并非全球性的,甚至连一场战争都不是,因为恐怖主义是一种战术,而非敌人009年巴拉克#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)就任美国总统后,悄悄地放弃了这种提法。全球反恐战争或许只是一个蹩脚的提法和一个模糊的构想,但不幸的是,语言上的吹毛求疵并没有消除潜在的问题。不管你给它贴什么样的标签,世界正面临着圣战暴力的问题,而且正在日趋恶化。在过去5年里,激进伊斯兰主义带来的威胁在两个具体方面已经恶化。首先,圣战组织的活动范围已扩大到世界更多地区。其次,袭击的频率和死亡人数都在增加26日,巴基斯坦白沙瓦市的一所学校148人(大部分是儿童)遭到屠杀,这是自2007年以来巴基斯坦发生的最残暴的恐怖事件。随后是在本月,多达2000人在尼日利亚被恐怖组织科圣Boko Haram)杀害,另有17人在巴黎发生的两次独立的袭击中遇难。发生在三个不同大洲的三次残暴的袭击给人们留下的印象是,伊斯兰主义恐怖袭击的频率正在上升。这样的印象得到了数据实。兰德公Rand Corporation)近期的一项研究发现,2013年有49个伊斯兰教沙Salafist)圣战组织在世界各地活动,007年时只有28个。这些组织发动的记录在案的袭击从6年前00起增加到2013年的950起。兰德的报告发布之后,尼日利亚的暴力事件又呈现大幅激增。美国国务院近期的一份报告估计,2013年有1.8万人死于恐怖主义袭击,但同时指出,被杀害美国人的数量非常低,而且下降。西方国家被恐怖主义杀害的人数下降,使得这一问题在美国和欧洲只受到零星关注。但在世界其他地方,圣战武装分子能够自由行动和训练的无法律地带的数量已经增多0年前,西方反恐努力关注的主要地区是阿富汗以及巴基斯坦边境地区(索马里是另一大担忧对象)。但如今,自封的“伊拉克与黎凡特伊斯兰国Isis)控制了叙利亚和伊拉克的大片地区,包括伊拉克第二大城市苏尔。在非洲,科圣地——或许是受到Isis成功的启发——也占领了土地,目前控制着尼日利亚北部、面积相当于比利时大小的部分地区,同时对喀麦隆等邻国造成了威胁。利比亚大部分地区已陷入混乱的无政府状态,圣战主义在也门的气焰也很嚣张。显而易见的是,为什么这一问题正在恶化,而我们又需要做什么。在唯我论的美国政治世界里,政客们很自然地认为问题某种程度上产生于华盛顿。民主党批评布什总统入侵伊拉克的决定。而共和党称奥巴马总统过于草率地从伊拉克撤军。实际上,西方军事干预的影响在近期历史上带来的教训是双面的。Isis的崛起有时被归咎于美国没有更早对叙利亚进行干预。另一方面,西方对利比亚的军事干预却使该国陷入无政府状态,为圣战组织的兴起创造了空间。事实上,从根本上说,这并非美国对外政策以及西方的种种罪恶造成的问题。最近几年,联合国安理会(UN Security Council)每一个常任理事国都遭遇过恐怖袭击0011日,美国遭受袭击005年,英国经历了伦敦.7”爆炸案,造成通勤人员死亡。俄罗斯对车臣的圣战分子发动了长期而残酷的斗争。中国的天安门广场遭受过一次爆炸袭击,全国各地时有暴恐事件发生。如今,法国也遭到了袭击。印度同样也处于恐怖袭击的前线。与所有遭受伊斯兰主义恐怖袭击的国家联合起来,这对西方国家来说看上去很诱人,但在政治上也有困难,因为这样就会暗含接受俄罗斯对车臣、以色列对加沙以及中国对新疆的种种说辞或态度。近期暴力事件激增的原因包括,一些国家在阿拉伯世界革命之后变得更加脆弱,以及社交媒体的放大效应,使圣战信息能够快速传播并覆盖更大范围的受众。随着伊斯兰主义武装分子的发展壮大,与他们的冲突已经越来越像一场常规战争。目前,在世界的几个地区,正规军正在为争夺领土控制权与圣战组织交战。美国与欧洲的空军在对Isis进行空袭。在乍得和尼日尔军队的帮助下,尼日利亚军方正在打击科圣地——尽管不是非常有效。法军在马里展开部署以击退圣战组织的进攻。白沙瓦的袭击事件促使巴基斯坦人重新开始对塔利Taliban)进行军事打击。长远来看,解决圣战暴力问题更是一场理念之争而非军队间的斗争。但与此同时,打击伊斯兰主义暴恐运动的军事行动正在非洲、亚洲和中东展开。最终结果可能还是要进行一场“反恐战争”

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