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宜昌中医治疗早泄宜昌妇幼保健医院治疗男性不育多少钱宜昌市哪家男科医院割包皮好 WUSHU VILLE, Taiwan--A custard-ellow orchid dubbed P. Golden Emperor #39;Sweet#39; changed hands between Taiwan breeders in 1978 for 0,000. Now, orchids roll out of greenhouses in Taiwan and onto the shelves of big-box retailers like Lowe#39;s for as little as .48.1978年,一株被称为“黄帝”(P. Golden Emperor #39;Sweet#39;)的奶黄色兰花在台湾种植者间的交易价格为10万美元。而今,由台湾温室大量培育的兰花登上了Lowe#39;s等大型零售商的货架,售价低至5.48美元。As with flat-panel televisions and laptop computers, the once-rare orchid has become a mass-market commodity. Orchids now are the best-selling potted flower in the U.S., with annual sales exceeding the poinsettia, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.与平板电视和笔记本电脑一样,曾经非常稀有的兰花如今已经成为一种大众商品。美国农业部(U.S. Department of Agriculture)数据显示,如今兰花是美国最畅销的盆花,年销售额超过了一品红。Behind the shift are the entrepreneurs of Taiwan, who have brought to orchid-breeding the energy and methods applied to making consumer electronics. Leanne Huang for The Wall Street Journal图片:珍稀兰花的大众化之路推动这一转变的是台湾企业家,他们把消费电子产品业界投入到生产中的那种精力和方法引入了兰花种植业。One result is familiar to many electronics makers: While global orchid sales are rising, profit margins are thinning.有一个结果是许多电子产品生产商都不会感到意外的:随着全球兰花销售额的上升,利润率会收窄。#39;An orchid is no longer worth what it used to be,#39; said Wu Po-Hung, one of Tainan#39;s largest orchid growers. #39;We learned how to grow them too well.#39;台湾最大的兰花种植商之一吴波洪(音)表示:“兰花没有过去那么值钱了。我们太了解怎么种兰花了。”Greenhouses rise from the humid plains of southern Tainan County in clusters that bring together dozens of small growers. Each specializes in a specific stage of the production cycle--from germination to potting plants.在台湾南部台南县湿润的平原上,成片的温室把数十个小种植户联合在了一起。每一位种植户都专注于生产周期中的一个环节──有的专门催芽,有的专门装盆。Together they form an intricate orchid-production chain that can produce orchids to meet client specifications. Its efficiency resembles the assembly lines of Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., the Taiwanese contractor that makes iPhones and other Apple Inc. products.他们共同组成了一个复杂的兰花生产链,这个生产链能生产满足客户特殊需求的兰花。其效率可与生产iPhone及苹果公司(Apple Inc.)其他产品的鸿海精密工业股份有限公司(Hon Hai Precision Industry Co.)流水线媲美。Overall, since the U.S. first permitted imports of Taiwanese potted orchids in 2004, the wholesale value of a large potted orchid in the U.S. has dropped around 30%, with inflation factored in, according to figures from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Smaller orchid plants now wholesale for as little as 100 New Taiwan dollars (.33), said Mr. Wu.美国农业部数据显示,总体而言,将通货膨胀因素考虑在内,2004年美国首次允许进口台湾盆栽兰花以来,美国大盆栽兰花的批发价已经下跌了30%左右。吴波洪说,较小的兰花目前批发价低至新台币100元(合3.33美元)。It is a reversal for Mr. Wu, whose family originally grew orchids on their rooftop as a hobby. His father turned it into a business after discovering he could make more money selling collectors the orchids on weekends than in his day job as an airplane mechanic.这对吴波洪而言是一大挫折。吴波洪家起初是在屋顶上栽种兰花,把种兰花当做业余爱好。后来他父亲发现周末向收藏者出售兰花比他当飞机机械师挣到的钱还多,便开始做起了兰花生意。A market for rare orchids still exists. But that has been on decline since the mid-20th century when horticulturalists figured out how to clone orchids from tissue cells. Leanne Huang for The Wall Street Journal 几乎长成的植株会被出口到美国。珍奇兰花市场依然存在。但这一市场自20世纪中期园艺学家发现通过组织细胞无性繁殖兰花的方法以来就一直在衰落。For centuries prior, growing orchids was something of a mystery. Their dust-like seeds would sprout only if they landed on particular types of fungus. They grew best clinging to trees or rocks, instead of dirt, in the jungles of Southeast Asia and South America.在之前的几个世纪里,兰花栽培一直笼罩着一层神秘色。兰花的种子像粉尘一样,只有落到特殊的真菌上才能发芽。在东南亚和南美的丛林里,附着在树上或岩石上(而不是生长在土中)的兰花长得最好。The ancient Greeks saw the orchid as the incarnation of a nymph#39;s lustful son who had tried to rape a priestess. In Victorian Europe, orchid hunters hired by wealthy collectors sometimes killed each other in pursuit of new breeds--the subject of Susan Orlean#39;s 1998 book on orchid history, #39;The Orchid Thief.#39; Disliking its often ostentatious collectors, American author James Agee wrote in 1935 that the orchid was #39;the Largest, the Loudest, the Most Expensive, the most supercharged with Eroticism, Glamor, Prestige.古希腊人将兰花视为一位仙女之子的化身,这个儿子是个好色之徒,试图奸淫女祭司。在维多利亚时代的欧洲,富有的收藏家雇佣的兰花搜寻者有时会为寻找新品种而相互厮杀──这是苏珊·奥林(Susan Orlean) 1998年讲述兰花历史的书《兰花窃贼》(The Orchid Thief)的主题。美国作家詹姆斯·阿吉(James Agee)不喜欢那些通常爱炫耀的收藏家,他于1935年写道,兰花是“最大、最招摇、最昂贵、最富色情味和诱惑力、气派十足的花”。The contemporary orchid-breeding business in Taiwan and its main rival, the Netherlands, centers on the Phalaenopsis, or the moth orchid. Native to Taiwan, it is popular with overseas customers for its full petals in pink, purple, white and yellow.台湾当代兰花种植业及其主要竞争对手荷兰都以种植蝴蝶兰为主。蝴蝶兰原产于台湾,这种兰花拥有粉色、紫色、白色和黄色大花瓣,很受海外顾客欢迎。In the 1980s, a government-owned sugar company started growing orchids and found it more profitable than its core business. A decade ago, the Taiwan government plowed under huge swaths of unprofitable sugar cane to build greenhouses for orchids.二十世纪八十年代,台湾一家政府所有的糖业公司开始种植兰花,并且发现这比其核心业务利润更高。10年前,台湾政府铲除了大片无利可图的甘蔗田,以建立温室种植兰花。Following the tech industry model, the small growers grouped together into production chains.小型种植户开始效仿科技行业模式,他们联合起来,结成了生产链。Some growers focus on new breeds, coaxing cloned orchid cells into tiny green curls floating in glass flasks. Others then raise the slow-growing seedlings, packing them with dry moss into flexible plastic pots.一些种植户专注于育种,他们小心翼翼地将无性繁殖的兰花细胞加工成极小的绿色螺旋状物,这些螺旋状物浮在玻璃烧瓶内。之后,另一些种植户会培育生长缓慢的幼苗,把它们和干苔藓一起装入有弹性的塑料花盆里。The seedlings go through three growth stages of 4 to 6 months each, usually under the care of different growers, and are repacked each time into successively larger pots. Then they are shipped overseas. At a greenhouse in the U.S., a shock of cold jolts the plants into flowering. Then they go to the most profitable stage: end-user sales.Leanne Huang for The Wall Street Journal 美国农业部(US Department of Agriculture)数据显示,如今兰花是美国最畅销的盆花,年销售额超过了一品红。这些幼苗要经历三个生长阶段,每个阶段持续四到六个月,通常由不同的种植者照料,每次都会被重新装入大一些的花盆内。之后这些花会被输往海外。在美国的温室内,低温刺激能促使兰花开花。随后它们进入利润最高的阶段:终端用户销售。The process has allowed Taiwan to become the world#39;s largest producer of orchids by shipment number (the Netherlands is actually the largest producer by revenue) while capturing only a fraction of the profits. It is a ceiling Taiwanese companies have hit repeatedly: from laptop computers to power wheelchairs and golf club heads.这一流程使台湾成为全球发货量最大的兰花生产商(实际上以收入计算,荷兰是全球最大的生产商),但只能获得一小部分利润。这是台湾企业反复触及的天花板:从笔记本电脑到电轮椅再到高尔夫球杆杆头都是如此。After building its economy on small-scale, low-margin manufacturers and efficient supply chains that revolutionized global pricing for a host of manufactured products, Taiwan has seen most of the profits flow elsewhere. Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou and other politicians have called repeatedly for #39;structural reform#39; to solve the predicament, but have yet to produce solutions.台湾将经济建立在规模小、利润率低的生产和高效供应链之上,以这种模式生产的一系列产品改变了全球定价格局,也导致利润大多流向了世界其他地区。台湾总统马英九和其他政治家多次呼吁通过“结构性改革”来解决这一困局,但迄今尚未找到解决方案。#39;Taiwan#39;s orchid growers can#39;t do much except keep trying to cut costs lower to stay ahead,#39; said Ting-Fang Hsieh, director of Taiwan#39;s government-run Floriculture Research Center.台湾政府运营的花卉研究中心(Floriculture Research Center)主任谢廷芳表示:“台湾的兰花种植商要保持领先只能不断努力削减成本,除此之外他们也无能为力。”Taiwanese growers bemoan that they ship more orchids than the Netherlands, but the Dutch manage to make more money off orchids. A major Dutch competitor, Floricultura BV, has built its own greenhouses in the U.S., which means it can control the more lucrative sales to retailers.台湾种植者抱怨称,他们的兰花发货量比荷兰大,但荷兰从兰花种植中获得了更多利润。荷兰一家主要竞争对手Floricultura BV在美国建立了自己的温室,这就意味着该公司能够控制面向零售商的销售这一利润更高的环节。Though Taiwan has some industrial-scale production, most of the business is dominated by small family-run shops that focus on a single step. That, to some, is sapping profitability.尽管台湾的兰花种植有一些达到了工业生产规模,但该行业主要是由专注于单一环节的小型家庭作坊一统天下。一些人认为这种模式会削弱盈利能力。While generally it takes one to two years to grow an orchid, #39;most Taiwanese orchid growers keep the plants for only a six-month segment,#39; said Mr. Wu, the Wushu Village grower. The strategy, he says, limits investment risk but also means Taiwanese growers don#39;t control sales overseas.乌树村(Wushu Village)的种植商吴波洪说,栽培兰花一般需要一到两年,但台湾多数兰花种植者只栽培六个月的时间。他说,这一策略抑制了投资风险,但也意味着台湾种植者无法控制海外销售。Some growers are experimenting. Nadison Hsu, the 43-year-old chairman of Taiwan#39;s largest orchid-growing collective and an ex-government official who favors pink and green Hawaiian shirts, said the industry needs to consolidate and innovate to succeed.一些种植商正在进行试验。43岁的许能舜是台湾最大的兰花种植集团公司董事长,也是一位前政府官员,他喜欢粉色和绿色的夏威夷衫,他说,兰花种植业要靠整合和创新来取得成功。His company, Taiwan Orchid Professionals, began selling a brand of orchid-infused beauty products in Asia. It is also selling gold-coated orchids as a gimmick to build the brand. The company became the first horticultural company to list on Taiwan#39;s over-the-counter Gre Tai Securities Market this year, a precursor step to listing on the Taiwan Stock Exchange.他麾下的台湾兰业股份有限公司(Taiwan Orchid Professionals)开始在亚洲销售一个加入兰花成分的美容产品品牌。该公司还出售包金兰花,作为品牌建设的噱头。该公司今年成为首家在台湾场外交易平台──券柜台买卖中心(Gre Tai Securities Market)──上市的园艺公司,这是在台湾交所上市的前奏。Showing off a large orchid plant with seven spotless white blooms cascading down a central stem, Mr. Hsu pointed to the four pairs of leathery green leaves, which show that the plant had taken four years to reach that size.许能舜向笔者展示了一株大兰花,七朵洁白无瑕的花朵环绕着主干款款垂下。许能舜指着四对坚韧的叶子,这些叶子表明这株兰花长这么大用了四年时间。#39;How much do you think we can sell this for?#39; he says. #39;Just 250 New Taiwan dollars#39;--.30.他说:“你猜猜我们能卖多少钱?只能卖到新台币250元。”──也就是8.30美元。 /201310/262670宜昌市治包皮多少钱

宜昌男健医院男科包皮手术多少钱宜昌阳痿早泄价格 On a typical journey from Beijing to Boston, a traveller might fly a Boeing 777 on Hainan Airlines’ new direct service between the two cities and then take a German-built subway carriage on the Blue line from Logan Airport to Government Center. There, a family member might be waiting in a Volvo, a car that has long been popular with drivers in New England despite the Swedish carmaker’s larger travails.Substitute a Comac C929 for the Boeing 777, a CNR Corp subway car for the Blue Line’s Siemens-made rolling stock and a Geely GC9 for the Volvo, and you have the Chinese government’s vision of a future in which long-distance travel features made-in-China planes, trains and automobiles.Planes aside, that future could be coming sooner than many people realise. In October, CNR, one of China’s two largest rolling stock manufacturers, surprised the global rail industry by winning a 0m tender to supply more than 280 subway cars to Boston’s public transit system.Like so many of China’s industrial advances, this one came as a bolt from the blue after years of quiet development and a steady accumulation of contracts and experience primarily in developing markets. Chinese companies are increasingly aiming for contracts in the US and other mature economies, potentially foreshadowing a reshaping of the global rail industry. But their ambitions ultimately extend far beyond Boston, and to industries far beyond rail.To win over Boston area transport officials, CNR promised to assemble the subway cars at a new facility in Springfield, a city in western Massachusetts desperate for investment and jobs. CNR’s bid was also by far the lowest submitted, coming in almost 50 per cent below Bombardier’s .08bn.In the process, Chinese executives learned a bit about community politics, Boston-style. Guided by US lobbyists and a PR specialist who had previously worked for the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority, CNR wisely kept its cool as local activists tried to tie the contract decision, rather tenuously, to China’s record on human rights.Lu Xiwei, head of the CNR unit that will deliver the subway cars, also deftly fended off — in polite English — a pack of Boston reporters who wanted to compare the base salaries of his company’s China workforce to US blue-collar workers.Separately, Mr Lu schmoozed everyone from Springfield mayor Domenic Sarno to neighbourhood groups and the editorial board of The Republican, a local newspaper. “We are not here just for one project,” Mr Lu assured them, as he outlined plans to invest m in a disused Westinghouse plant and create 250 jobs. “We are entering into the entire North American market from here.”Springfield swooned, grateful at the opportunity to get back into the railway business. The city used to be home to the Wason Manufacturing Co, which supplied the funeral train that transported Abraham Lincoln’s body back to Illinois after his assassination in Washington. Wason closed its plant during the Great Depression.As for Chinese cars, most New England Volvo drivers are probably unaware that their beloved Swedish brand has belonged to a Chinese company, Zhejiang Geely, since 2009 — or that Volvo will begin small-scale exports of Chinese-made cars to the US this year.Like Jaguar Land Rover, the UK manufacturing champion that has thrived under Indian ownership, Volvo retains its original identity. Indeed, Volvo’s own turnround can probably be credited to Geely’s willingness to give its European managers more freedom than they ever enjoyed under their previous owner, Ford Motor.Convincing US drivers to buy one of Geely’s Chinese brands, such as its new flagship GC9 sedan, will be a much harder task. But as Bob Grace, head of JLR’s China operations, has observed, crazier things have happened before in the car industry. “You’ve seen [Czech brand] Skoda go from being one of the bargain basement brands#8201;.#8201;.#8201;.#8201;to become very successful under the VW group,” he said in a briefing last year.“Things do change relatively in a short period of time and I think the Chinese will shorten that timeline more than most.”Finally, there is China’s vision of replacing that Hainan Airlines Boeing 777 with a C929 — Beijing’s state-funded wide-body airliner project. Even the most ambitious Chinese government officials would probably admit this remains a distant dream that is decades away.通常而言,从北京到波士顿的旅行者,可能要先乘坐海航(Hainan Airlines)新开通的北京到波士顿直飞航线上的波音(Boeing) 777飞机,然后搭乘波士顿地铁蓝线(Blue line),在德国制造的地铁车厢中从洛根机场(Logan Airport)站坐到政府中心(Government Center)站下车。你的家人或许已经开着沃尔沃(Volvo)在那里等候了。尽管这家瑞典汽车制造商总体上经营困难,但沃尔沃汽车长期以来一直受到美国新英格兰地区人们的喜爱。将那架波音777客机换成中国商飞C929,将波士顿地铁蓝线的西门子(Siemens)地铁车辆换成中国北车(CNR Corp)的产品,将沃尔沃汽车换成吉利(Geely)瑞GC9,这就是中国政府愿景中未来的长途旅行:中国制造的飞机、列车和汽车。除去飞机,这样的未来或许会比许多人意识到的更快到来。去年10月,身为中国最大两家列车制造商之一的中国北车让全世界铁路行业大吃一惊:它赢得了波士顿公共交通系统280多辆地铁车辆、价值5.7亿美元的供货大标。中国的工业进步往往都是这样取得的,这一个也不例外:经过多年悄无声息的发展,主要在发展中市场逐渐积累合同和经验,然后突然一鸣惊人。中国企业越来越多地瞄准美国和其他成熟经济体中的合同,有改变全球铁路行业面貌的势头。不过它们的雄心不会止步于波士顿,也不会止步于铁路行业。为了赢得波士顿地区交通官员的持,中国北车承诺要在斯普林菲尔德市建一个新的地铁车辆装配厂。这个位于马萨诸塞州西部的城市眼下急需投资和就业岗位。中国北车的中标价远远低于其他所有投标,比庞巴迪(Bombardier)的投标价(10.8亿美元)低出近50%。在这个过程中,中国的高管们也领略了一些波士顿风格的社区政治。在美国游说者和曾为马萨诸塞湾交通局(MBTA)效力的一名公关专家指导下,中国北车在当地活动人士试图用中国的人权记录牵强地影响招标决定时保持了冷静。中国北车美国公司总经理卢西伟还用礼貌的英语,巧妙挡开了一群波士顿记者有关中国工人与美国工人基本工资差异的提问。此外,卢西伟与各方亲切交谈,从斯普林菲尔德市长多梅尼克#8226;萨诺(Domenic Sarno)、到社区团体和斯普林菲尔德《共和党人报》(The Republican)编委。“我们来这儿不是只做一个项目。”卢西伟向他们保说。他概述了在西屋电气(Westinghouse)工厂旧址投资6000万美元建厂、创造250个就业岗位的计划。“我们将以这里为起点,进入整个北美市场。”这个计划让斯普林菲尔德人喜出望外,他们非常感激自己的城市有机会重新回到铁路这一行。这个城市曾经是沃森制造公司(Wason Manufacturing Co)的所在地。当年亚伯拉罕#8226;林肯(Abraham Lincoln)在华盛顿遇刺后,将他的遗体运回伊利诺伊州家乡的林肯灵柩专列就是这家公司生产的。沃森的工厂在大萧条(Great Depression)期间倒闭了。至于中国汽车,大多数驾驶沃尔沃汽车的新英格兰人大概都不知道,这个他们热爱的瑞典品牌自2009年起就属于一家中国公司(浙江吉利)了,他们大概也不知道沃尔沃从今年开始要向美国小规模出口中国制造的汽车了。与被印度公司收购后起死回生的捷豹路虎(Jaguar Land Rover)一样(捷豹路虎原本是英国制造业的骄傲),沃尔沃也保留了自己原本的身份。事实上,沃尔沃本身的起死回生,或许也要归功于吉利愿意给予前者的欧洲经理人更多自由,之前在福特汽车(Ford Motor)旗下时,他们从没有拥有过那么大的自由权。想要说美国人购买一辆吉利旗下的中国品牌汽车,比如其最新旗舰款瑞GC9轿车,则应该会困难得多。但是,正如捷豹路虎大中华区总裁高(Bob Grace)所说,更加疯狂的事情在汽车行业也曾发生过。“有目共睹的是,(捷克品牌)斯柯达(Skoda)被大众(VW)集团收编后就从原本那个不受欢迎的低价品牌……发展成了一个非常成功的品牌。”他去年在一次说明会上表示。“情况真的会在相对较短的时间里发生改变,而我认为中国人应该会比其他大多数国家的人更快地实现这种改变。”最后,中国还梦想将海航的波音777客机换成中国商飞C929,后者是正在开发中的一种宽体客机,它的开发由中国政府提供资金。即便是最雄心勃勃的中国政府官员或许也会承认,这仍然是个遥远的梦想,还需要几十年的时间才能实现。宜昌男科医院哪家最专业

宜昌泌尿科医院龟头炎症The richest 1 percent are likely to control more than half of the globe’s total wealth by next year, the charity Oxfam reported in a study released on Monday. The warning about deepening global inequality comes just as the world’s business elite prepare to meet this week at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.慈善机构乐施会(Oxfam)周一发布的一份研究报告称,明年世界上最富有的1%人口,很可能将控制一半以上的全球财富。这个关于全球不平等日益深化的警告发出时,全球商界精英正准备于本周在瑞士达沃斯参加世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)。The 80 wealthiest people in the world altogether own .9 trillion, the report found, nearly the same amount shared by the 3.5 billion people who occupy the bottom half of the world’s income scale. (Last year, it took 85 billionaires to equal that figure.) And the richest 1 percent of the population, who number in the millions, control nearly half of the world’s total wealth, a share that is also increasing.报告发现,全球最富有的80个人总共拥有1.9万亿美元(约合12万亿元人民币)的财富,几乎相当于收入水平处于全球后50%的35亿人所拥有的财富总和。(去年,85名亿万富翁的财富总和才达到这个水平。)最富有的1%人口,即数千万人,控制着全球总财富的将近一半,这个比例还在不断上升。The type of inequality that currently characterizes the world’s economies is unlike anything seen in recent years, the report explained. “Between 2002 and 2010 the total wealth of the poorest half of the world in current U.S. dollars had been increasing more or less at the same rate as that of billionaires,” it said. “However since 2010, it has been decreasing over that time.”报告写道,世界各经济体目前贫富不均的状况在最近几年是前所未有的。“2002年到2010年间,世界上最贫穷的一半人口所拥有的财富总量的增速,与亿万富翁的财富总量增速基本上相同,”报告称。“然而自2010年以来,他们的财富总量却一直在减少。”Winnie Byanyima, the charity’s executive director, noted in a statement that more than a billion people lived on less than .25 a day.该组织的执行总干事温妮·比扬依玛(Winnie Byanyima)在一份声明中指出,全球超过10亿人口每天的生活费低于1.25美元。“Do we really want to live in a world where the 1 percent own more than the rest of us combined?” Ms. Byanyima said. “The scale of global inequality is quite simply staggering.”“我们真的想生活在1%人口的财富总和比其他所有人财富总和还多的世界里吗?”比扬依玛说。“全球不平等的严重程度简直令人震惊。”Investors with interests in finance, insurance and health saw the biggest windfalls, Oxfam said. Using data from Forbes magazine’s list of billionaires, it said those listed as having interests in the pharmaceutical and health care industries saw their net worth jump by 47 percent. The charity credited those individuals’ rapidly growing fortunes in part to multimillion-dollar lobbying campaigns to protect and enhance their interests.涉足金融、保险和卫生领域的投资者得到了最多的收益,乐施会说。该组织援引《福布斯》(Forbes)杂志亿万富豪榜的数据称,制药和卫生保健领域亿万富豪的财富净值跃升了47%。这家慈善机构认为,这些个人的财富之所以增长迅速,部分原因是他们为保护和巩固自身利益,耗资数百万美元开展了游说活动。 /201501/355492 Burgeoning crude supply is liable to drive prices lower in 2014 after a run of years when emerging markets supported demand, as shifting dynamics continue to change the oil landscape.在原油市场连续数年获得新兴市场需求的撑之后,快速增加的原油供应很可能会在2014年拉低油价,油市形势将继续随着这种供需动态变化而发生改变。A historically jittery commodity, crude oil has seen calm prices for three years, and one big factor has been helping smooth the wrinkles: U.S. shale oil.作为历史上一种非常敏感的大宗商品,原油价格走势已连续三年保持波澜不惊,其背后的一大持因素就是美国的页岩油。Three leading energy agencies recently said production from outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would increase this year, much of it from U.S. shale. Added to that is the possible return to market of millions of Middle East barrels as Iran, Iraq and Libya potentially ramp up production. All of that is set to press on prices.三大能源机构近期表示,今年石油输出国组织(Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, 简称:欧佩克)以外国家的原油产量将增加,其中大部分来自美国的页岩油。除此之外,由于伊朗、伊拉克和利比亚可能会增产,中东地区的原油产量也许会增加数百万桶。所有这些势必会令油价承压。A major disruption still could push oil higher, but potential oversupply makes even that less likely. Emerging-market demand once kept supply so tight that any disruptions led to striking price moves, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.若原油供应严重中断,仍可能会推高油价,但潜在的供应过剩会降低这种可能性。Saxo Bank的大宗商品策略部门主管汉森(Ole Hansen)说,新兴市场的需求曾使得供应如此紧张,因而任何一次供应中断都造成了油价的大幅波动。That is changing. One big 2013 move for benchmark Brent crude came in August, when international intervention in Syria seemed increasingly likely. But while the price of Brent, which is traded on London#39;s IntercontinentalExchange, did rise by 5% on the threat of U.S.-led airstrikes, it didn#39;t come close to the 2013 high.不过,这种局面正发生变化。2013年基准布伦特原油价格的一次动发生在8月份,当时国际社会干预叙利亚的可能性似乎越来越大。虽然在美国牵头进行空袭的威胁下,在伦敦洲际交易所(IntercontinentalExchange)交易的布伦特原油价格上涨了5%,但并没有逼近2013年高点。#39;Increased production in the U.S. meant that spot prices weren#39;t reacting quite as much as in previous geopolitical incidents,#39; Mr. Hansen said. There is so much supply that threats to it have less impact than previously, and 2014 will be #39;the first year in a while when supply growth is going to outpace demand growth,#39; Mr. Hansen said.汉森表示,美国原油增产意味着现货油价对地缘政治事件的反应不如以往那样大了。他说,目前的原油供应足够多,油价受威胁的程度不如以往,2014年将是首个出现一段时间原油供应增量超过需求增量的年头。Next year, crude from Libya--which experienced major problems exporting its oil in 2013 because of internal disputes--could flow again. Iraqi output also is set to increase. Even Iran, shut out of global markets for years, could return if an agreement is reached to relax sanctions aimed at curbing its nuclear development. All this could add as much as two million to three million barrels a day of Middle East output.新的一年,产自利比亚的原油可能再度流入市场。受国内冲突影响,2013年利比亚的原油出口遭遇重大问题。此外,伊拉克原油产量也将增加。就连已多年被全球市场拒之门外的伊朗也有望重返市场,前提是该国与西方国家达成协议,放松对旨在限制该国发展核武器的制裁。所有这些可能会使中东地区原油日产量增加200万至300万桶。#39;If that happens, that will need to be offset by some reduction of production out of Saudi [Arabia],#39; said Neil Gregson, a fund manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management who oversees .5 billion in natural-resources investments.根大通资产管理公司(J.P. Morgan Asset Management)基金经理格雷格森(Neil Gregson)表示,若事实如此,将需要沙特阿拉伯削减一定的原油产量来抵消其他中东地区国家增产的影响。该公司管理着35亿美元自然资源投资资金。#39;In the meantime, the U.S. continues to grow its own domestic production both in oil and gas. I think, for us, it#39;s less about where the actual price is going--it#39;s more about how much more growth is left in North American oil sands, shale gas, shale oil,#39; as well as shale exploration elsewhere, he said.格雷格森还说,“与此同时,美国国内的油气产量将继续增长。我认为,对我们来说,问题不在于实际油价走势如何,关键是北美油砂、页岩气、页岩油产量以及其他地区页岩油气勘探水平的增幅能有多大程度的提高。”The price of U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude, which is traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, has been kept lower by problems transporting the oil to markets. Those troubles have eased recently, but Sabine Schels, head of fundamental commodity research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, doubts the problems will disappear.受原油输送问题影响,纽约商品交易所交易的美国基准西得克萨斯中质油价格已持续走低。虽然这些问题近来有所缓解,但美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)基本大宗商品研究部门主管舍尔斯(Sabine Schels)怀疑这些问题不会消失。#39;In the next 12 to 24 months, unless any of these bottlenecks are solved, we could see WTI going down to a barrel, to incentivize producers to slow down,#39; she said她说,“在未来12到24个月,除非这些瓶颈得到解决,否则西得克萨斯中质油价格会跌至每桶50美元,这将促使产油国减产。”Still, there are bulls in the market.不过,仍有人看涨油市。John Hummel, chief investment officer for AIS Group, a fund manager with 0 million under management, said all the new sources of global oil are expensive to extract, and he sees U.S. shale output falling by 2015.管理着4亿美元资产的基金公司AIS Group的首席投资长赫梅尔(John Hummel)称,全球所有新原油资源的开采成本都较高。他预计到2015年美国页岩油产量将下降。#39;If global demand picks up in the developed world, and you combine that with the growth in the emerging economies, I think the market is going to get tight,#39; he said, which means those mighty peaks could return to the oil-price graph.赫梅尔说,“如果发达经济体的原油需求增加,再加上新兴经济体需求的增多,我认为市场供应将趋紧。”这意味着油价走势图上可能会再度出现多个高峰。#39;It#39;s going to get volatile to the upside,#39; he said.他说,“油价将波动上行。”The soaring prices of 2008, when oil reached more than 0 a barrel, will repeat, though not likely in 2014, Mr. Hummel said. The price #39;is going to go higher.#39;赫梅尔还指出,2008年油价飙升的局面(当时油价升破每桶140美元)将重现,但不太可能发生在2014年。他说,“油价将会上涨。” /201401/271402宜昌治疗早泄得多少钱宜昌韩式包皮手术的费用



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