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China’s armed forces have returned to the US Navy an underwater drone that they had seized on Friday in the South China Sea, bringing a swift denouement to a crisis that raised tensions between Washington and Beijing.中国军方已向美海军归还了上周五在南中国海(South China Sea)被中国海军扣留的一艘水下无人潜航器，为一场引起华盛顿方面和北京方面关系紧张的危机划上了句号。The handover of the small submarine to the US was “completed smoothlyafter “friendly consultationsbetween both sides, China’s defence ministry said in a statement on its website. 中国国防部在其网站上的一份声明中称，中美双方经“友好协商”，顺利完成了美无人潜航器的移交工作。The Pentagon said the drone had been handed back to the US Navy by a Chinese ship near the location where it had been seized, which it described as 50 nautical miles north-west of Subic Bay in the Philippines. 美国五角大楼(Pentagon)表示，一艘中国舰船在潜航器被扣押的地方附近把该潜航器归还给了美国海军。五角大楼称，扣留地点位于菲律宾苏比克湾西南50海里的地方。According to the US statement, the seizure of the craft was “inconsistent with both international law and the standards of professionalism for conduct between navies at sea The Pentagon said it was still investigating the incident. 美方声明称，扣住这艘潜航器“不符合国际法，也不符合海军海上行动的专业标准”。五角大楼表示，其仍在调查这起事故。China so far has not said who authorised the seizure of the drone, which the US says was carrying out oceanographic survey work when it was taken by a Dalang III-class salvage ship. 中国迄今尚未表示，是谁授权扣住该潜航器的。美国表示，该潜航器在执行海洋水文观测工作时，被中方一艘大浪三Dalang III-class)救难船取走。However, Chinese maritime expert Zhu Feng, director of the South China Sea Institute at Nanjing University, said the seizure was “purely individual behaviourof the Chinese vessel in an effort to identify the US craft.然而，中国海事专家、中国南海研究协同创新中心执行主任朱峰表示，扣住该潜航器是中国舰船为了识别该美国航海器而发起的“纯粹个别行为”。US president-elect Donald Trump also waded into the row. On Sunday, after Beijing and Washington announced the drone would be returned, Trump tweeted: “We should tell China that we don’t want the drone they stole back. let them keep it!美国当选总统唐纳特朗Donald Trump)也加入了这场争吵。上周日，当北京方面和华盛顿方面公布该潜航器将被归还的消息时，特朗普在推特上发言称：“我们应该告诉中国，他们偷走的无人潜航器我们不想要了——就让他们留着吧！”China’s foreign ministry on Monday rejected Mr Trump’s accusations Beijing had stolen the craft as “not accurate 周一，中国外交部否认了特朗普的指控，称北京方面偷走潜航器的说法是“不准确的”。来 /201612/484960China’s annual parliamentary session convenes this week amid a sombre mood that recalls the late 1990s: an era of economic ructions, rising debt, currency jitters and talk of mass lay-offs. 中国将在本周举行年度人大会议。当前的黯淡情绪令人回想起上世纪90年代末期：那是一个经济动荡、债务上升、汇率波动和大规模裁员成为讨论话题的时代Zhu Rongji, the economic tsar who helped steer the economy through that transformative period, was bold. On his watch 30m were laid off, hundreds of state-owned enterprises privatised and thousands more consigned to history. 当年驾驭中国经济渡过那个转型期的总理朱镕基十分果敢。在他主管经济期间，3000万人下岗，数以百计的国有企业私有化，还有数千家国企成为历史The National People’s Congress, which kicks off this weekend, will see whether China’s leaders are up to the task this time. Premier Li Keqiang has prepared the ground: overcapacity has become the mantra in recent months and in the past few days the Communist party has openly started to discuss lay-offs, up to 6m by some estimates. 本周末开幕的全国人大会议将表明中国领导人这一次能否担当重任。现任总理李克强已经作了铺垫：产能过剩在近几个月成为经常挂在嘴边的话题，近日共产党开始公开讨论裁员，有人估计下岗人数可能高00万“Li Keqiang is certainly trying to invoke those times because that was the last time there was a serious reform of state-owned enterprises but now we are such a different cycle,said Fraser Howie, a China financial markets expert and co-author of Red Capitalism. “Taking such tough action now with all the other issues in China is much, much harder.“李克强肯定是在试图让人回想起那个时代，因为那是上一次对国企推行认真的改革，但现在我们处于一个如此不同的周期，”研究中国金融市场的专家、曾与人合著《红色资本主义Red Capitalism)的侯Fraser Howie)表示。“在中国存在种种其他问题的情况下采取这样的严厉行动，难度大得多。Fifteen years later, China has come full circle. The SOEs that survived the purge of the 1990s were consolidated and flooded with investment. More than a decade of accelerated economic growth followed, but the same problems have resurfaced as the economy slows. 15年后的今天，中国已经转了整整一圈。在90年代的洗牌中幸存的国有企业进行了整合，获得了大量投资。此后迎来了持续10多年的加速经济增长，但随着经济放缓，相同的问题再度浮现In a sign lay-offs are no longer completely taboo, Beijing recently tweaked the way it measures unemployment. The official figure has been allowed to creep towards 5 per cent after decades of barely budging from 4 per cent. 突显裁员不再是绝对禁忌的一个迹象是，北京方面最近微调了其衡量失业率的方式。官方失业率在数十年徘徊%的水平后，已被允许向5%渐渐攀升Surveys indicate that real unemployment reached well over 20 per cent in many Chinese cities in the late 1990s. 调查显示0年代末中国许多城市的实际失业率达到远高于20%的水平“In addressing overcapacity we need to be particularly concerned about unemployment,Zhu Guangyao, vice-minister of finance, said this week. The cornerstone of Mr Li’s solution is a Rmb100bn (.2bn) fund to address job losses to be disbursed over two years. It will first target the steel and coal sectors, the most labour-intensive among the heavy industrial sectors. “在解决产能过剩方面，我们需要特别关注失业问题，”财政部副部长朱光耀本周表示。李克强的解决方案的基石是一000亿元人民币（52亿美元）的基金，它将在两年期间发放到位，帮助下岗工人。该基金将首先面向钢铁和煤炭行业，它们是劳动力最密集的两个重工业部门This time the labour ministry estimates 1.8m workers could lose jobs, while other estimates go as high as 6m. Steel lobbyists say up to 400,000 jobs could be lost, while just one state-owned coal producer, Longmay, said last autumn it would let 100,000 workers go. 据中国人力资源和社会保障部估计，这一次将80万工人下岗，而其他机构估计的下岗人数最高达00万。钢铁业游说团体表示，可能失去多0万工作岗位，同时只有一家国有煤炭生产企业——龙Longmay)在去年秋天表示，它将0万工人下岗Open discussion of lay-offs seems a deliberate strategy to evoke the late 1990s as a signal both to officials and common people that this government is as determined to address China’s problems as Mr Zhu’s. But in those days, economic restructuring was accompanied by China’s entry into the World Trade Organisation, which opened vast new markets. But now, China is the world’s biggest trader, and a tentative US recovery and weak Europe are buying less. 围绕裁员的公开讨论似乎是一个深思熟虑的战略，目的是唤起人们0年代末的记忆，从而向官员和普通人都发出信号：本届政府在应对中国的问题方面与当年的朱镕基一样坚定。然而，当年中国在经济重组的同时加入世界贸易组织(WTO)，从而开辟了广阔的新市场。而现在，中国已经是世界最大贸易国家，而复苏不稳的美国和疲弱的欧洲减少了进口Talk of lay-offs may simply allow local governments to formalise the status of workers who have in effect been unemployed for months, with pay in arrears as mines and mills halt production. 有关裁员的谈论可能只是让地方政府正式确定实际上已经下岗好几个月的工人们的地位；随着矿山和钢厂停产，这些工人的工资被拖欠China’s much more diversified economy leaves some of them with more options, although the new jobs are unlikely to be in the most depressed regions. “The lay-off problem this time will not be as severe because society has more capacity to soak up the SOE lay-offs,says Hu Xingdou, an economist at Beijing Institute of Technology who tracks labour issues. 当今的中国经济多元化程度高得多，这使其中一些下岗工人面临较多选择，尽管新的就业机会不太可能在最低迷的地区出现。“这一次裁员问题不至于那么严重，因为社会有更多能力来吸收国企下岗工人，”北京理工大学经济学家、追踪劳工问题的胡星斗表示“The growth of the services industry will make up for the job losses.“务业的增长将弥补这些失业。The period from 1998 to 2001 saw mass worker demonstrations that forced China finally to implement a rudimentary social safety net, but corruption and the sorry state of many SOEs meant many former state workers lack adequate health coverage or pensions. The problem was particularly acute in the north-eastern rust belt, which is again one of the regions hardest hit in the current slowdown. 1998年至2001年期间，大规模工人示威迫使中国终于实施一个基本的社会安全网，但腐败和许多国企所处的糟糕状态意味着，许多原国企职工得不到足够的医保或养老金。这个问题在东北“锈带”尤为严重，在当前的经济放缓中，东北再度成为重灾区之一According to one steel industry insider privy to plans for the fund, Beijing will offer subsidies to SOEs willing to close some of their inefficient production lines. For all the brave talk of job losses and capacity cuts, it is not clear it is truly prepared to let companies fail. 根据一位了解前述基金相关计划的钢铁业内人士透露，北京方面将向愿意关闭一些低效率生产线的国有企业提供补贴。尽管有很多关于裁员和削减产能的果敢言论，尚不清楚北京是否真正准备让企业倒闭。来 /201603/430505

Like no President before him, Donald Trump has threatened to change forever the way in which politics is done.在特朗普之前，从没有一个总统能像他那样威胁到政治方式，使其从此发生改变。His barnstorming speeches and Twitter tirades frequently grab column inches while more measured political debate is ignored.他的巡回演讲和推特呛声经常被媒体大幅报道，更为严谨的政治辩论反而被无视了。New analysis of his political rhetoric may explain why - it is markedly more repetitive and simple than those of eight other candidates he beat to the White House.对特朗普政治言论的新分析也许可以解释其中原因——特朗普的措辞明显比其他8位总统候选人的重复性更强、更简单。While Hillary Clintons most frequently used words during television debates include comprehensive and affordable, his are tremendous and deal.希拉里在电视辩论中最常使用的单词是“全面”、“负担得起”，而特朗普的却是“巨大”和“交易”。His showmanship is apparent from his frequent use of the word I when people with a history of public service, like Jeb Bush, are more likely to say we.当杰布什等其他有公共务经验的人更倾向于说“我们”时，特朗普频繁地使用“我”，很明显，这就是他的魅力所在。The studys authors, from the University of Neuachtel in Switzerland, claim Trumps speaking style is similar to his 140-character Twitter pronouncements, which he continues to use even as the US President.该研究报告的作者来自瑞士Neuachtel大学，他们声称，特朗普的讲话风格和他40字推特声明类似，即便当选后他依然沿用了这种风格。Lead author Jacques Savoy said: As Trump won the primaries and the general election, does that mean that efficient communication must be based on tweet-like rhetoric and this form will dominate the future elections?该报告的第一作者雅萨沃伊说：“特朗普赢得初选和大选是不是意味着有效的沟通必须基于推特式语言？这种形式将主导未来的选举吗？Clearly the rhetoric evolution goes towards to short communication messages, but this also implies simplistic analysis and solutions? If the answer is affirmative, I see a real risk of the democracy.显然，语言表达向着简短的信息沟通方向发展，但这是否也意味着过于简单的分析和解决方案？如果是肯定的，那么我看到了民主的真正风险。”Trumps confrontational approach began on the campaign trail.特朗普的强硬态度始于竞选巡回演讲期间。Among his top 10 words in the television debates analysed by the Swiss researchers was Mexico, and he now plans to build the wall he promised between that country and the US.研究人员分析出他在电视辩论中的十大用词之首是“墨西哥”，他曾承诺在美墨之间修建高墙，现在他正计划落实此事。The researchers who analysed the television debates from last years Presidential race found politicians largely share a common language.研究人员分析了去年的总统竞选电视辩论，发现政客们在很大程度上通用一种语言。They like to talk, for instance, about the people and what they have to say.例如，他们喜欢谈论必须“说到”的“人”。But Trump was atypical in keeping things simpler than anyone else.但特立独行的特朗普表达得比所有人都简单。The percentage of long and potentially confusing words he used in debates was 18.3 percent compared to 26.4 percent for Bernie Sanders.他在辩论中使用长句子和容易引起困惑的词语的比例是18.3%，而相比之下，伯尼?桑德斯是26.4%。His top 10 words were compared with Clinton, who lost the Presidency to him, as well as other candidates.研究人员将特朗普的十大用词和他的手下败将希拉里以及其他几位候选人做了比较。The top terms used by Jeb Bush, brother of former President George W Bush, included proven, status and brother, where Sanders preferred Wall Street, wealth and class.美国前总统小布什的弟弟杰布什最常用的单词包括“明”、“状态”以及“兄弟”，而桑德斯更经常使用“华尔街”、“财富”以及“阶级”。Long sentences were preferred by OMalley, Clinton, and Sanders.长句子是奥马利、希拉里以及桑德斯的最爱。A relatively high lexical density percentage indicates a more complex text, containing more information.词汇密度相对较高意味着文本更加复杂，包含的信息更多。But using the transcripts of the TV debates, Trump had the lowest percentage, at just 36.6 percent, compared to 44.6 percent for Cruz.但是从电视辩论的用语来看，克鲁兹的词汇密度为44.6%，相比之下特朗普词汇密度最低，只有36.6%。He was also one of the few Presidential candidates to regularly swear, it was noted in other debates.特朗普还是少数几个经常骂人的总统候选人之一，人们在其他辩论中也发现了这点。The paper found Trumps distinct communication style was far more direct than any of the other candidates.这篇论文发现，特朗普独特的沟通风格比所有其他候选人都更直接明了。His victory has been described by critics as proof that dumbed down politics is in the ascendancy.家们称，特朗普的胜选明“脑残”政治占了上风。来 /201703/498437

Now we can be sure. 现在我们可以确定了。Donald Trump will never tack to the middle. 唐纳#8226;特朗Donald Trump)永远不会向中间立场靠拢。Let Trump be Trump, is his team’s new motto, which is baffling since he has not tried anything else. 让特朗普做他自己，是其团队新的座右铭。这句话让人摸不着头脑，因为他从未尝试其它策略。By recruiting Stephen Bannon of Breitbart News, the far right conservative website, to run his campaign, Mr Trump has banished whatever doubts still lingered: his White House bid is chiefly about inciting white resentment. 通过聘请极右翼保守派网站Breitbart News的斯蒂芬#8226;班农(Stephen Bannon)，特朗普打消了一切尚存的疑虑：他的竞选策略主要是煽动白人的怨恨。For the next 10 weeks, he will trigger every dark fear he can find. 在接下来的竞选阶段，他将唤醒他找得到的所有黑暗恐惧。It has been more than a generation since Richard Nixon ended America’s long national nightmare by resigning the presidency. Mr Trump’s version still has a way to go. 自理查德#8226;尼克Richard Nixon)以辞去总统之位来终结美国漫长的国家噩梦以来，已经过去了40多年。特朗普版的噩梦还将延续很久。There is little reason to think it would come to an end if he lost.如果他竞选失败了，我们也没什么理由认为这一切会随之结束。The former reality television star’s debt to Nixon is as much about psychology as ideology. 这位前真人秀明星与尼克松相像的地方既有意识形态层面的，也有心理学层面的。America’s 37th president collected resentments like philatelists do stamps. 身为美国7届总统的尼克松收集怨恨就像集邮家收集邮票。Nixon never met a grudge he did not want to nurse. 尼克松从未遇到过他不想耿耿于怀的愤怒。Roger Ailes, the disgraced founder of Fox News, made his name by training Nixon to smile more and treat TV as his friend in his winning 1968 campaign. 福克斯新Fox News)不光的创始人罗#8226;艾尔Roger Ailes)当年成名，就是因为他968年总统竞选中训练尼克松增加微笑、把电视当作自己的朋友，最后赢得大选。It is no coincidence that Mr Ailes is now coaching Mr Trump for his televised debates with Hillary Clinton. 并非巧合的是，艾尔斯现在指导特朗普与希拉#8226;克林Hillary Clinton)进行电视辩论。He has his work cut out. 他的任务十分艰巨。Mr Trump may have borrowed Nixon’s 1968 playbook by running a fear-based campaign that appeals to law and order. 特朗普或许会借鉴尼克968年的剧本，搞一场以恐惧为本的竞选，呼吁法律和秩序。But today’s silent majority is way less white than it was back then. 但是如今沉默的多数派中的白人比例远不及当初。As an electoral strategy, Mr Trump’s campaign is flirting with suicide.以此作为竞选策略，特朗普无异于玩火。Yet it works as a media strategy. 不过，作为媒体策略，该策略行得通。Nixon believed people respond to fear rather than love. 尼克松认为，能唤起人们反应的是恐惧，而不是爱。They don’t teach that in Sunday school but it’s true, he said. 他们不会在主日学校教这些——但这是事实，他表示。He also harboured a deep hatred of the elites the professors, Ivy Leaguers and experts whom Spiro Agnew, his vice-president, called the effete core of impudent snobs. 他还对精英群体——被他的副总统斯皮#8226;阿格Spiro Agnew)称为无耻势利小人的软弱核心的教授、常青藤毕业生和专家——怀有深深的仇恨。Mr Trump is surrounded by people with the same Nixonian grievances. 特朗普的周围也尽是怀有尼克松式不满的人。His first mentor, Roy Cohn, the legendary New York lawyer, advised people that you should know the judge not the law. 他的第一个导师、具有传奇色的纽约律师罗伊#8226;科恩(Roy Cohn)曾发表高见称，与其了解法律，你还不如了解法官。Roger Stone, Mr Trump’s oldest friend with whom he speaks daily, believes hate is a stronger motivator than love. 特朗普每天都会交谈的的老朋友罗#8226;斯Roger Stone)认为，仇恨是比爱更强烈的动机。Paul Manafort, the former Trump campaign manager, who resigned on Friday, made his fortune as an adviser to paranoid strongmen around the world. 上月辞职的特朗普前竞选经理保#8226;马纳福特(Paul Manafort)凭借为世界各地的偏执狂强人担任顾问而起家。Mr Bannon’s website is dominated by conspiracy theories. 班农的网站充斥着各种阴谋论。Now he has a golden chance to turn his paranoia into a presidential campaign. 如今他得到了一个黄金机会，可以把他的偏执狂转化为总统竞选策略。What will it look like?那会是什么样的？Nixon’s ghost was aly visible in the Trump campaign’s content. 尼克松的魅影已经在特朗普的竞选内容中浮现。Unlike Ronald Reagan, Nixon was happy with big government he added more federal agencies than any president since. 与罗纳德#8226;里根(Ronald Reagan)不同，尼克松喜欢大政府——他增设的联邦机构超过之后任何一届总统。Mr Trump’s success with white middle-class voters derives partly from his pledge to leave federal entitlements, such as social security, in place. 特朗普成功赢得白人中产阶级选民的持，部分源自于他承诺保联邦福利，比如社会保障制度。Unlike Reagan, Nixon pursued a foreign policy based more on national interest than American values. 与里根不同，尼克松奉行的外交政策更多地是基于国家利益，而非美国价值观。Such pragmatism en-abled him to override the anti-communist hawks and do the historic deal with Mao’s China. 这样的务实主义使他得以顶住反对共产党的鹰派，与毛泽东主政的中国达成历史性协议。Mr Trump’s admiration for autocrats, such as Russian president Vladimir Putin and even North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, shows a similar disregard for US sensibilities. 特朗普对威权领导人——比如俄罗斯总统弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)、甚至朝鲜的金正Kim Jong Un)——的敬佩，展现了类似的对美国情怀的漠视。But it was Nixon’s cultural message, the stoking of white middle-class anger, that really feeds Mr Trump. 但是，真正滋养特朗普的是尼克松的文化信息——点燃白人中产阶级的愤怒。It will increasingly dominate what remains of his campaign.这将日益主导特朗普余下的竞选之路。Is there any way it could succeed? This is where Mr Trump and Nixon part company. 该策略可能成功吗？这便是特朗普和尼克松有所不同的地方。The latter was the political genius of his age. 后者是他那个时代的政治天才。Nixon certainly cashed in on white resentment against the civil rights reforms of the 1960s. 尼克松当然利用了白人对上世纪60年代民权改革的怨恨。But even at the peak of his southern strategy, he was careful never to express clear racist views. 但即便是在他南方战略的巅峰时期，他也小心翼翼地从不表达裸的种族主义观点。Mr Trump can barely finish a sentence without offending some ethnic group. 而特朗普几乎没有哪句话是不冒犯某个少数族裔的。Nixon also pivoted to the centre after winning the Republican nomination. 在赢得共和党总统提名后，尼克松转向了中间立场。Mr Trump is doing the opposite. 特朗普截然相反。Not only is Mr Trump moving further to the extreme for the general election a tactic for which there is no precedent in US presidential contests he also mocks standard practice, such as setting up professional operations in the swing states. 他在迎接大选之际进一步走向极端——该策略在美国总统竞选中是史无前例的——还嘲笑常规惯例，比如在摇摆州建立专业竞选运作。Mr Bannon, like Mr Manafort, has no campaign experience. 和马纳福特一样，班农也没有竞选经验。Mr Trump is an outsider, advised by outsiders, appealing to voters who see themselves as outsiders. 特朗普是个局外人，其顾问是局外人，吸引的选民自认为是局外人。Nixon would be aghast. 尼克松对此会感到错愕。This is not how you win elections.这不是赢得竞选的方式。But it is a great way to leverage your brand. 但是，这是一个品牌运作的极好方式。Many have doubted whether Mr Trump really expected to win the Republican nomination, let alone have a shot at the presidency. 很多人都怀疑特朗普是否真的期待过自己能赢得共和党提名，更不用说有机会迎接大选了。They suspected his candidacy was just another way of boosting the Trump name. 他们猜测，特朗普竞选总统只是另一种推广其品牌的方式。In the process, Mr Trump found a huge market of people who respond to white identity politics. 在竞选过程中，特朗普发现了白人身份认同政治的巨大市场。In their view, Fox News has become the establishment. 在这个白人群体看来，福克斯新Fox News)已经成为体制的一部分。Its ousted founder, Mr Ailes, is at a loose end. 该机构被驱逐的创始人艾尔斯现在闲着。Mr Trump has 11m Twitter followers, which is a multiple of Fox’s nightly audience. 特朗普在Twitter上拥100万粉丝，是福克斯夜间观众的数倍。What better response to defeat than to monetise your base by launching a Trump News Channel? Stranger things have happened. 面对失败，有什么能比从你的持者获益——开设特朗普新闻频道——更好的回应方式吗？更奇怪的事都发生了。Such a venture would convert all those resentments into hard cash. 这样的项目将把所有那些怨恨转化为现金。As a media baron, Mr Trump could also play chief thorn in the side of Mrs Clinton’s administration.作为媒体大亨，特朗普还可以扮演希拉里政府首席刺儿头的角色。There would be a certain poetry to that. 这种局面将有一些诗意。Mrs Clinton worked as a legal aide to the Watergate committee that brought down Nixon. 当年希拉里在迫使尼克松下台的水门事件调查委员会中担任法律助理。All politics is personal in Mr Trump’s world. 在特朗普的世界里，一切政治都是个人层面的。What more fitting way of completing the circle than avenging the ghost of Nixon?还有什么能比为尼克松的魅影报仇更适合的方式来完成这个轮回呢？ /201609/465594

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