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来源:搜狐娱乐
原标题: 成都烤瓷牙贵吗网上知识
The Obama administration is launching a final push to salvage negotiations on a transatlantic free trade zone before it leaves office despite growing political opposition in Europe.尽管欧洲的政治反对日益强烈,但奥巴马政府发起最后努力,希望在届满之前挽救旨在建立跨大西洋自由贸易区的谈判。While Washington has been working on compromises to give new life to the talks, the top US negotiator admitted that the prospects of success were hit by factors such as Britain’s vote to exit the EU. 虽然华盛顿方面在研究作出哪些妥协让谈判获得新的生命力,但美国首席谈判代表承认,英国公投退欧等因素减小了谈判成功的前景。Mike Froman, US trade representative, said Washington remained comm-itted to concluding the so-called Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership this year.美国贸易代表迈克#8226;弗罗Mike Froman)表示,华盛顿方面仍致力于在今年达成所谓《跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系协定TTIP)。He insisted the talks, launched in July 2013, continued to make progress, despite a series of sceptical comments by European ministers.他坚称,013月发起的谈判仍在取得进展,尽管欧洲的一些部长级官员发出了一系列质疑言论。The clear message we are getting from [EU] members is that, notwithstanding these [recent] comments there is a clear desire to keep moving forward, he said. 我们从(欧盟)成员国获得的清晰信息是,尽管出现了近期这些言论,但各方仍明确希望推进谈判,他说。And the closer you are to negotiations the more confident you are that in fact negotiations are moving forward.你距离谈判越近,就越有信心认为,谈判事实上在取得进展。US officials have spent the summer drafting a proposed package of compromises that will be at the centre of talks between Mr Froman and his EU counterpart, Cecilia Malmstr#246;m, in Brussels on Thursday. 这个夏季,美国官员们起草了一揽子妥协提议,这些将成为周四弗罗曼与欧盟贸易专员塞西莉亚#8226;马姆斯特罗姆(Cecilia Malmstr#246;m)会谈的中心议题。Although European leaders including Germany’s Angela Merkel have in recent days expressed support for the negotiations, senior ministers in both France and Germany have called for the talks to be suspended.尽管德国总理安格#8226;默克Angela Merkel)等欧盟领导人近来表达了对谈判的持,但法国和德国的资深部长级官员呼吁暂停谈判。Such comments, together with mounting antitrade rhetoric in the US presidential campaign, have raised doubts over whether any deal can be concluded before President Barack Obama leaves office in January and what future any talks would have after that.这些质疑言论,加上美国总统竞选中日益浓厚的反贸易措辞,使人们质疑协议能否在明月美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)下台之前达成?之后的谈判会有什么未来?In a sign of the difficult path TTIP faces, Mr Froman also questioned whether the European Commission, which has been leading the talks with the US, could make the hard decisions needed to conclude a deal. 突显TTIP面临棘手路径的一个迹象是,弗罗曼也质疑,主导与美方谈判的欧盟委员European Commission)能否做出达成协议所需的艰难决定。We’re saying: OK, we’re y to go, he said. 我们说,是的,我们准备推进,他说。We’re y to get in that end game, create these packages, these meaningful packages of outcomes. 我们做好了完成谈判的准备,拿出了这些计划,这些能带来结果的有意义计划。Are you?你们呢?Among the additional challenges, he said, was a ruling earlier this year that a deal struck by the EU with Canada would have to be ratified by parliaments in all 28 EU states, which would complicate all future European trade talks.他说,其他挑战包括今年早些时候欧盟与加拿大之间达成的一项协议将必须得到欧盟全部28个成员国议会的批准,这将让未来欧洲所有的贸易谈判变得复杂化。来 /201609/466509A haunting photograph of a bloodied young boy injured in a devastating airstrike in the Syrian city of Aleppo has captured the attention of people around the world as it circulates through traditional and social media channels.一张血淋淋的男孩子的照片通过传统和社交媒体传播开后,引发了全世界的关注。这个男孩子在叙利亚阿勒颇市遭到摧毁性空袭时受伤。Syrian opposition activists released a photo of a boy, looking stunned and exhausted as he sat in an orange chair of an ambulance with his face covered with blood and dust.照片是叙利亚反对派活动人士发布的。这个小男孩坐在一辆救护车的橘色椅子上,满脸鲜血和污泥,看上去茫然若失,精疲力尽。A physician in Aleppo, Osama Abu al-Ezz, identified the boy Thursday as 5-year-old Omran Dagneesh. He confirmed the boy was taken to a hospital known as ;M10; Wednesday night and treated for head wounds before being discharged.阿勒颇医生阿布·阿尔伊兹星期四确认这个男孩岁的奥姆兰·达格尼诗,并实达格尼诗星期三晚上因头部受伤被送入名为“M10”的医院接受治疗,之后出院。The boy was injured after an airstrike on the rebel-held neighborhood of Qaterji. A doctor at M10 said that eight people were killed in the airstrike, including five children.他是在反政府武装控制的卡特吉社区遭受空袭时受伤的。M10医院的一名医生说,有8人在空袭中丧生,其中包括5名儿童。Shortly after the strike, rescue workers and journalists began pulling victims from the debris. Among the rescuers was photojournalist Mahmoud Raslan, who took the iconic photo that captured the barbarity of the war in Syria.空袭后不久,救援人员和记者开始把受害人从废墟中拉出来。救援人员当中有摄影记者拉斯兰,就是他拍下了这张捕捉叙利亚战争之残酷的标志性照片。Raslan said the boy, his parents and his three siblings were rescued from the rubble of their partially destroyed apartment building. He said none of the family members sustained major injuries but the apartment building collapsed shortly after they were rescued.拉斯兰说,这个男孩子和他的父母以及三个兄弟都从被部分摧毁的公寓楼中救出,一家人都没有受重伤。但是,公寓楼在他们被救出后不久就倒塌了。Meanwhile, Russia has indicated that it is y to support a 48-hour cease-fire in Aleppo in order to allow aid deliveries.与此同时,俄罗斯表示,愿意持阿勒颇市的48小时停火,以便让救援物资进入那里。The U.N. envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, has expressed frustration at the continuing violence preventing the delivery of humanitarian aid to those in need of help in the countrys many besieged areas.联合国叙利亚问题特使德米斯图拉表达了对持续暴力的失望,暴力使人道救援物资无法送达叙利亚很多被围困地区需要帮助的人们手中。He cut short a weekly meeting of the U.N. aid delivery task force Thursday in Geneva and said the group would reconvene next week with what he hoped would be discussion of action instead of ;wishes or promises.;周四,他缩短了联合国援助运送工作小组在日内瓦的每周会议。他说,该小组将在下周复会。他希望届时小组讨论的是具体行动,而不是“愿望和承诺。”来 /201608/461858

The US and China have agreed on a new UN resolution to place additional sanctions on North Korea in response to its latest nuclear and missile tests.美国和中国已就进一步制裁朝鲜的联合国新决议达成一致,这些制裁是对朝鲜最新核试验和导弹试验的回应。The US was due to present the draft resolution to the UN Security Council yesterday afternoon, US officials said, following seven weeks of intense debate between Beijing and Washington.据美国官员表示,美国定于昨日下午将决议草案提交联合国安理UN Security Council),此前北京和华盛顿之间进行了持续7周的激烈辩论。The resolution is expected to add more North Korean government entities and individuals to the UN sanctions list, however, diplomats would not say if the text goes further in applying additional sanctions on Pyongyang.预计该决议将把更多朝鲜政府实体和个人列入联合国制裁名单,但外交官们不愿说明决议文本会不会更进一步,对平壤方面施加更多制裁。The agreement on a draft resolution reflects China’s growing frustration with its North Korean ally at its continued efforts to develop a nuclear weapon, however, western officials say that Beijing is still reluctant to inflict too much economic pressure on Pyongyang.同意决议草案反映了中国对其朝鲜盟友开发核武器的持续努力日益不满,但西方官员们表示,北京方面仍不愿对平壤施加太大的经济压力。The US has applied its own pressure on China to take a tougher line on North Korea by announcing the planned deployment of a missile defence system in South Korea that would have implications for China’s own armoury of conventional and nuclear missiles.美国本身已对中国施压,要求中国对朝鲜采取更强硬立场——美国宣布计划在韩国部署一套导弹防御系统,该系统对中国自己的常规和核导弹力量具有潜在影响。Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, confirmed yesterday there would be a new UN resolution on North Korea. However, he sharply criticised the announcement about deploying the Terminal High-Altitude Air Defence platform in South Korea.中国外长王毅昨日实,联合国将通过针对朝鲜的新决议。不过,他尖锐批评在韩国部署末段高空区域防御系统(THAAD)平台的声明。“China’s legitimate national security interests would be jeapordised and threatened,he said on a visit to the US.“中国的正当国家安全利益很可能会受到损害,甚至是威胁,”王毅在访问美国期间表示。Even amid the signs of agreement, significant differences remained over Beijing and Washington’s version of what the two governments have agreed.即便在达成一致的迹象中,北京和华盛顿对于两国政府同意了什么内容的表述仍存在显著差异。Washington said the US and China “agreed on the importance of a strong and united international response to North Korea’s provocations, including through a UN Security Council resolution after Mr Wang met with US officials. “They agreed that they will not accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state.”王毅会晤美国官员后,华盛顿方面表示,美国与中国“一致同意针对朝鲜的挑衅作出强大而统一的国际回应的重要性,包括通过联合国安理会的决议……两国同意,他们将不接受朝鲜为核武国家。”But an official from China’s foreign ministry had a different interpretation of the meetings, stressing China’s longstanding opposition to sanctions on Pyongyang.但是,中国外交部的一名官员对中美官员的会晤作出不同解读,强调中国长期反对制裁平壤。“A resolution is just around the corner,she told a regular press briefing. “We hope that it can help stop [North Korea] from developing its nuclear and missile programme. At the same time we hope that the resolution and sanctions are not the fundamental way to resolve this issue we hope that all parties can go back to the negotiating table.”“目前联合国安理会涉朝新决议磋商已取得重要进展,有望很快达成一致,”她在例行记者会上表示。“我们希望并相信新决议有助于有效阻遏朝鲜核、导计划的进一步推进。同时,我愿再次强调,安理会决议本身并不能从根本上解决半岛核问题,希望各方最终回到通过对话谈判解决问题的轨道上来。”China’s foreign ministry proposed yesterday for the first time that “de-nuclearisationof the north be pursued in “parallel trackswith negotiations for a formal peace with the south.中国外交部昨日首次提出了实现朝鲜半岛“无核化”与半岛停和机制转换“并行推进”的思路。来 /201603/429065BEIJING Three decades ago, the Chinese tycoon Chen Dongsheng became enchanted by televised glimpses he caught of Europe’s opulent auction houses. When one of van Gogh’s “Sunflowerspaintings sold in London in 1987 for .9 million, the merging of art and wealth left a deep mark on him.北京—0年前,中国大亨陈东升在电视上瞥见欧洲富丽堂皇的拍卖行里的情景,并由此着了迷987年,当梵高的一幅《向日葵Sunflowers)在伦敦卖990万美元(约合2.6亿元人民币)时,艺术与财富的结合给他留下了深刻的印象。“The images of the auction on television seemed inconceivably distant from my own life,Mr. Chen wrote in his memoir. “So aristocratic, so refined. For China, an economically backward country that had never shaken off its revolution, the disparity with those scenes on television was too much.”“西方上流社会的一种高雅游戏是那么的遥远、那么的神秘、那么的高贵、那么的典雅,对于像中国这样一个还没有摆脱革命的国家,一个经济落后的国家,那样的电视画面里的情境反差太大,相离甚远,”陈东升在他的回忆录中写道。Now, though, in a confirmation of how far he and China have risen as forces in the art business, Mr. Chen has emerged as a major player in the future of Sotheby’s, the auction house he long dreamed of emulating.但现在,他已经成为了苏富比拍卖行(Sothebys)的未来的主要参与者,而长期以来,苏富比一直是他的模仿对象。这明他和中国已在艺术商业领域崛起,成为了业内的重要力量。Taikang Life Insurance, of which he is chairman and chief executive, disclosed last week that it had become Sotheby’s biggest shareholder, with 13.5 percent of its stock after a string of purchases.陈东升担任董事长和首席执行官的泰康人寿上周透露,经过一连串的买入后,该公司已成为苏富比的最大股东,持有后3.5%的股什?“There couldn’t be a clearer indication of the globalization of the market,said Thomas Galbraith, an art market consultant at the Petraeus Group, an advisory firm in New York.“这是该市场全球化最明显的标志,”纽约咨询公司彼得雷乌斯集团(Petraeus Group)的艺术品市场顾问托马#8226;加尔布雷Thomas Galbraith)说。Mr. Chen has long been a powerful player in China’s market for fine arts and ancient artifacts. Taikang’s biggest shareholder is China Guardian Auctions, a company that Mr. Chen helped found in 1993.长期以来,陈东升一直是中国艺术品和古董市场的一个实力强大的参与者。泰康的最大股东是陈东993年参与创立的中国嘉德国际拍卖有限公司。“I want to create China’s Sotheby’s, and I want to recreate China’s cultural aristocracy,he told a Chinese newspaper two years ago. So far, he has not commented publicly on the announcement about Sotheby’s.陈东升两年前对中国的一家报纸表示,“我要做中国的苏富比,再造中国的文化贵族。”迄今为止,他尚未公开过有关苏富比的公告。Despite his high-culture aspirations, Mr. Chen, 58, is minor Communist nobility. His father was a People’s Liberation Army soldier, and his wife, Kong Dongmei, is a granddaughter of Mao Zedong. He has described auctioneering as a patriotic cause to protect China’s heritage, but he also supports contemporary art. He has been an advocate of market forces, but established himself in businesses art sales and insurance that required keeping wary regulators on his side.尽管心怀对高端文化的志向,现8岁的陈东升自己却是共产党贵族中地位不算显赫的一员。其父是一名人民解放军军人,其妻孔冬梅是毛泽东的外孙女。他把拍卖称作是一项保护中国遗产的爱国事业,但他也持当代艺术。他倡导市场的力量,但却在需要让心存戒备的监管机构站在自己一边的商业领域——艺术品拍卖和保险——确立了自己的地位。Meg Maggio, the director of Pékin Fine Arts, which has galleries in Beijing and Hong Kong, said it would be foolish to dismiss Mr. Chen and his team as new arrivals with cash but no expertise.在北京和香港设有画廊的北京艺门的总监马芝Meg Maggio)表示,如果对陈东升和他的团队不以为意,认为他们只是有现金没专业知识的新手,则颇为愚昧。“Chen is an ambitious powerhouse,Ms. Maggio said. “These are far from neophytes. These are sophisticated, savvy art world veterans.”“陈东升满怀抱负,有着巨大的能量,”马芝安说。“这些人根本不是新手。他们是老练、精明的艺术界老手。”Sotheby’s has its own operations in China, including offices in Beijing and Shanghai, and an additional office in Hong Kong, where it competes with Guardian and other auction houses.苏富比在中国有自己的业务,包括在北京和上海的办公室。此外,苏富比还在香港设有办公室,在那里同嘉德和其他拍卖行展开竞争。Art investors and gallery owners in China said they would be watching to see how far Taikang’s stake in Sotheby’s would translate into cooperation between the two companies, and perhaps Guardian Auctions as well.中国的艺术品投资者和画廊老板表示会进一步观察,看泰康在苏富比的持股,会在多大程度上转化成两家公司,或许还包括嘉德之间的合作。“This might give Sotheby’s an important ally in China,Ms. Maggio said. “Guardian also needs a strong overseas presence.”“这可能会让苏富比在中国获得一个重要的盟友,”马芝安说。“嘉德也需要强劲的海外表现。”Taikang has said it has ideas for possible members of Sotheby’s board, and if Mr. Chen is nominated, he will not need tutorials about how the company works. When he quit as an editor for a government-run magazine and plunged into auctioneering in the early 1990s, he copied Sotheby’s, right down to the fine points. He borrowed a camera, visited a Sotheby’s auction in Hong Kong and furtively recorded the proceedings.泰康表示,已经对可能会进入苏富比董事会的人员有了想法。而如果陈东升被任命为董事,在公司的运作上他将不需要他人的指导。上世纪90年代初辞去一家官方杂志的编辑职务并投身拍卖行业时,他照搬了苏富比的一概细节。他借了一部摄像机,现场观了苏富比在香港举行的一场拍卖,并偷偷录下了拍卖过程。“I was scared that they’d say something, and ed on the sly, my legs and hands shaking,he wrote in his memoir, published in 2014. Back in Beijing, he and his colleagues studied the in all its details, down to the design of its bidding paddles.“就怕被人家说,腿打抖,手打颤地偷偷拍,”他014年出版的回忆录中写道。回到北京后,他和同事对视频进行了详细的研究,细致到号牌的设计。In the decades that followed, Guardian prospered as China’s newly wealthy created a booming market for fine art.在接下来的几十年里,随着中国的新富人群创造出了一个兴旺的艺术品市场,嘉德繁荣发展。Now Sotheby’s and Guardian have strong reasons to turn to each other. The Chinese economy has slowed, as have art sales. Sales of contemporary Chinese works, for example, fell in value by 41 percent in 2015 compared with the year before, according to a report from Deloitte.如今,苏富比和嘉德有充分的理由互帮互助。中国经济放缓,艺术品销售也一样。德Deloitte)的一份报告显示,2015年当代中国艺术品成交额同比下1%。In the race to adapt, Guardian has been outmaneuvered by Poly Auction, a state-backed firm that has surged ahead of rivals while also generating disquiet in the industry about its opacity. Poly reported its sales in 2015 rose by 19.1 percent compared with 2014, while China Guardian recorded a 5.6 percent decrease, according to the Deloitte report.在适应变化的竞赛中,嘉德被有着国有资金持的保利拍卖领了先。后者在超越一众竞争对手的同时,也引发了业内对其不透明的不安。德勤的报告显示,保利通报015年的成交额同比增9.1%,而嘉德则宣布其成交额下降5.6%。Sotheby’s, for its part, has been outpaced in China by Christie’s and needs a stronger bridge to reach potential customers there, said Mr. Galbraith, the art market consultant. In 2013, Christie’s beat out Sotheby’s to become the first international auction house granted a license to operate independently in China.前述艺术品市场顾问加尔布雷思表示,就苏富比而言,它在中国的业务被佳士得(Christies)领先,因此需要一座更强大的桥梁,去争取那里的潜在顾客013年,佳士得击败苏富比,成为首个获准在中国独立开展业务的国际拍卖行。“Sotheby’s lost the battle to enter the Chinese market, objectively quite badly. But this may help them win the war,he said. “Whereas China Guardian has fallen behind Poly in their international presence, and this deal changes that dynamic overnight.”“苏富比输掉了进入中国市场的战斗,客观地说输得很惨。但这件事可能会帮助他们赢得这场战争,”他说。“尽管嘉德在国际业务上落后于保利,但这项协议在一夜之间改变了局势。”Above all, auction houses in China must adjust to the changing tastes of wealthy art buyers, who increasingly look abroad to fill their collections. Buyers here appear to be following a pattern aly seen in Japan and other countries, where they initially concentrate on domestic art and then expand their focus, Mr. Galbraith said.首先,中国境内的拍卖行必须要适应富裕的艺术品买家不断变换的品味。在收集藏品时,他们越来越把目光投向海外。加尔布雷思说,这里的买家似乎正在重复日本和其他一些国家出现过的模式,即最初把重点放在国内的艺术品上,然后扩大关注范围。In November, Liu Yiqian, a former taxi driver turned billionaire art collector, bought a painting of a nude woman by Amedeo Modigliani for 0.4 million at a Christie’s auction in New York. Art Basel, a major fair for contemporary art, has sought to draw in more Chinese buyers through an annual fair in Hong Kong.去年11月,出租车司机出身的亿万富翁、艺术品收藏家刘益谦,在佳士得在纽约的一场拍卖中.704亿美元(约合10.8亿元人民币)的价格,购得阿梅代奥#8226;莫迪利亚Amedeo Modigliani)的一幅女性裸体画。主要的当代艺术展巴塞尔艺术Art Basel)也试图通过每年在香港举办一次展览,吸引更多的中国买家。“There are changing tastes, which is coming from international travel, education and working experiences,said Jinqing Caroline Cai, the president of Christie’s in China.“因为出国旅游、受教育和工作的经历,人们的品味不断变化,”佳士得中国区执行董事蔡金青说。“Growing interest in international art has been a very, very strong trend,she said. “The reputation and brand value is very strong for Chinese to come into Christie’s or Sotheby’s.”“对国际艺术品的兴趣升温是一个非常非常强劲的趋势,”她说。“选择佳士得或苏富比时,口碑和品牌价值对中国顾客的吸引力非常大。”Taikang is not the only investor angling to win more value from Sotheby’s. Shanda Payment Holdings, a company in Singapore, received approval in May to raise its stake, Bloomberg reported. Third Point, a hedge fund that has been Sotheby’s biggest shareholder, fought two years ago to shake up management of the auction company.泰康不是唯一一个希望从苏富比赢取更多价值的投资者。彭社(Bloomberg)报道称,新加坡公司盛大Shanda Payment Holdings)月获准增持。两年前,一直是苏富比最大股东的对冲基金第三Third Point)奋力试图调整苏富比的管理层。But Mr. Chen has cast himself as a serious patron with a long-term view. Taikang Life Insurance runs its own airy contemporary gallery in a part of northeast Beijing dense with galleries. Guardian Auctions has commissioned the firm of Ole Scheeren, an avant-garde German architect, to build an art center within walking distance of the Forbidden City.但陈东升把自己塑造成了一个态度严肃、目光长远的赞助人。泰康人寿在北京东北部一个展馆密布的地区经营着自己窗明几净的当代艺术展厅。嘉德则委托德国先锋派建筑设计师奥勒#8226;舍伦(Ole Scheeren)在紫禁城的步行距离范围内修建一个艺术中心。“Entrepreneurs are the guardian spirits of great art,Mr. Chen said last year. “Without commerce, there is no art, because if art has no value, then nobody will go to enjoy it.”“企业家是伟大艺术的守护神,”陈东升去年说。“没有商业就没有艺术。因为艺术没有价值大家不会去欣赏。”来 /201608/457894

Saudi Arabia is in a mess. That conclusion seems to be common ground the view of serious outside analysts and of the country’s own government. The only question is whether the problems can be corrected by shock treatment of the sort announced in Riyadh last week.沙特阿拉伯眼下一团糟。这个结论似乎是外界认真的分析师和沙特政府的一致看法。唯一的问题是,这些问题能否通过上周利雅得宣布的那种休克疗法得到解决。The immediate challenge is clear. Last year, revenue from oil exports fell by 23 per cent. That matters in a country that is 77 per cent dependent on oil income. Unemployment is officially 11.6 per cent, not counting the millions who hold non-jobs in and around the agencies of the state. In total, 70 per cent of Saudis work for the government. In the first half of last year, according to Mohammed al-Sheikh, the chief economic adviser to the all-powerful deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman (known universally as MbS), the kingdom’s financial reserves were being drawn down at a rate that would have exhausted them by the end of 2017 far earlier than had previously been estimated by outside authorities such as the International Monetary Fund.直接挑战显而易见。去年,来自石油出口的财政收入下3%。对于一7%的财政收入依赖于石油的国家来说,这一点关系重大。在不计算数以百万计的在政府机构内部及周边无所事事的雇员的情况下,官方失业率为11.6%。总共70%的沙特人为政府工作。去年上半年,为掌握实权的沙特副王储穆罕默德#8226;#8226;萨勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman,被普遍称为MbS)担任首席经济顾问的穆罕默德#8226;阿尔-谢赫(Mohammed al-Sheikh)表示,沙特王国的资金储备正在迅速流失,017年底就可能会彻底干涸。这比国际货币基金组IMF)等外部权威机构此前的预测要早得多。All those problems were well summed up in a note from McKinseys published at the end of last year that talked of the prospect of a rapid economic deterioration in Saudi Arabia over the next decade.麦肯McKinsey)去年底发表的一份报告很好地总结了沙特的种种问题,该报告预测了未0年沙特经济迅速恶化的前景。So radical change is needed, which brings us to the announcement last week of MbS’s Vision 2030, designed to create a modern economy free of dependence on oil. The full announcement is worth ing because it demonstrates the sheer scale of the ambition, but a few headlines will give you the flavour.因此,沙特需要大刀阔斧的改革,这就让我们回到上周沙特副王储宣布的《愿030Vision 2030)。该计划旨在打造摆脱对石油依赖的现代化经济体。整套报告值得一读,因为它展现了沙特的勃勃雄心,但是几个标题就会给你一个大致印象#8226;A stake in the state-owned oil company will be floated in an IPO within the next two years.#8226; 未来两年内,将对沙特国有石油公司的部分股权进行首次公开发行(IPO)#8226;The funds from that and other asset sales perhaps tn dollars or more will be invested in a new sovereign wealth fund to give the country a regular income from non-oil sources.#8226; 这笔IPO和出售其他资产所得——可能达万亿美元以上——将投资于一只新的主权财富基金,使国家得以从非石油类资产获得固定收入#8226;The country will be opened up to tourism.#8226; 沙特将开放旅游业#8226;Expats will be allowed to own property within Saudi Arabia.#8226; 允许外国人在沙特境内拥有房地产#8226;New small and medium-sized enterprises will be encouraged to the point where they account for 35 per cent of economic activity.#8226; 政府将鼓励创办中小型企业,目标是让这类企业占5%的经济活动#8226;Subsidies for oil, water and electricity will be progressive eliminated.#8226; 逐步取消对成品油、水和电力的补贴#8226;Unemployment will be reduced to 7 per cent#8226; 将失业率降至7%#8226;A range of new industrial sectors will be developed, including petrochemicals, manufacturing and finance on the basis of foreign investment.#8226; 依靠外资发展一系列新的产业,包括石油化工、制造业和金融业#8226;An anti-corruption drive in the Ministry of Defence will be combined with the development of a domestic military equipment business that will be capable of meeting at least half of the country’s needs.#8226; 将在国防部发起反腐运动,同时发展国内军工产业,使其至少可以满足沙特一半的军事装备需求。All this builds on a full-scale McKinsey study called “Saudi Arabia Beyond Oil which was published at the end of last year.这一切措施都建立在麦肯锡去年底发表的全面报告《沙特阿拉伯——超越石油Saudi Arabia Beyond Oil)之上。The only problem with this grand plan is that is completely unrealistic. To say, as MbS did last week, that by 2020 Saudi Arabia will no longer be dependent on oil revenue is beyond a dream. To say that the country doesn’t care whether the oil price is a barrel or is ridiculous. But the real problem is the reality when it comes to implementation. Last week’s policy statement makes no reference to any of the difficulties of delivering what is promised.这份宏伟计划的唯一问题是它完全不切实际。说沙特020年将不再依赖石油收入(就像上周副王储所说的那样),简直比梦话还要乌托邦。说沙特不在乎油价是每桶30美元还是每桶70美元,实在荒唐。但是,真正的问题在于落实这些措施时的现实。上周的政策声明压根没提到兑现这些承诺的难度。Are we really supposed to believe that Saudi Arabia can create an industry to build technically complex military equipment from a zero base?我们真的应该相信沙特可以从零开始、创建一个有能力制造先进军事装备的产业吗?Or to believe that western tourists are going to flock to a country whose laws allow people to be stoned to death for adultery or gay sex? The human rights problems are amply and regularly set out in reports from Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch. How many western women will be happy to slip into a burkini for their holidays?或是相信西方游客会蜂拥来到这个依法可对通奸者或同性恋者处以石刑的国家吗?大赦国际(Amnesty International)和人权观察组Human Rights Watch)的报告中定期详细描述沙特的人权问题。有多少西方女性愿意在度假时套上穆斯林泳装“布基尼”?How is the civil service which MBS accepted last week was corrupt and inefficient to be reformed when so many of the brightest and best Saudis are happier to live and work in London or New York?在那么多最聪明最优秀的沙特人更乐于在伦敦或纽约工作生活的情况下,怎么对副王储承认腐败而低效的行政部门进行改革呢?How is Aramco to be converted into a company that can meet western standards of transparency and good governance? Will the kingdom, for instance, allow an independent external analysis of the company’s claimed oil and gas reserves?沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司(Saudi Aramco,简称沙特阿美)如何转型为达到西方透明度及优良治理标准的企业?例如,沙特王国会允许外部独立机构对该公司声称的油气储量进行分析吗?And, perhaps most important of all, how will the Saudi government break the hold ofWahhabist religious fundamentalism, something the royal family has not managed over the last century?同时,或许最重要的是,沙特政府将如何打破瓦哈比派原教旨主义的控制?过去一个世纪,沙特皇室都没能做到这一点。Without a serious analysis of the delivery process, Vision 2030 is meaningless rhetoric. The barriers to progress are not new. They have defeated every attempt to achieve change and reform made by successive Saudi governments. Promises of economic diversification, of industrial development, of education for all and of a transformation of the energy sector through the development of renewables have all ended in failure. To ignore the problems of delivery is to demonstrate the unreality of the whole approach. I hope McKinsey a firm of the highest integrity will point this out rather allowing its brand to be tarnished by association with a project that it must know cannot work.在不对改革落实过程进行认真分析的情况下,《愿030》只是毫无意义的空谈。进步的障碍并不新鲜。它们挫败了历任沙特政府推行改变和改革的所有尝试。对于经济多元化、工业发展、全民教育以及发展可再生能源以推进能源业转型的承诺,均以失败告终。忽视落实过程中面临的问题,暴露了整个思路的脱离实际。我希望麦肯锡作为一家具有最高诚信的公司指出这一点,而不是任由其招牌被它肯定知道行不通的项目玷污。The worst thing is that MbS, who is 30 and has not enjoyed the benefit of a western education with its inbuilt tone of scepticism, actually believes what he is saying and does indeed think that he can transform the country by an act of personal will. The deputy crown prince is the sort of character about whom Shakespeare could have written a great play. It would not have ended happily.最糟糕的是,这0岁、从未受过西方教育及其内在怀疑思维熏陶的副王储,实际上相信自己所说的话,真的认为他可以通过个人意志改变这个国家。他属于那种可以让莎士比亚写出一部伟大剧本的人物类型。该剧本不会以喜剧收场。It might be tempting to say that these are Saudi Arabia’s problems and that after innumerable further, and no doubt very lucrative, consultancy studies little will change and MbS will be swept away perhaps by a change of the guard after his father’s death.人们或许忍不住说,这些都是沙特的问题,在咨询机构无数次报酬丰厚的进一步研究之后,几乎什么都不会改变,副王储将被踢出历史舞台——或许是在其父亲去世、王位易主之后。That view is too narrow. Saudi Arabia matters in the region look at the damage being done in Yemen and by the wider conflict with Iran which MbS has been stoking. Provocative behaviour, driven on by economic weakness and competition for shares of the oil market, could make a bad neighbourhood even more volatile.这种观点太过狭隘。沙特在中东地区至关重要——看看也门遭受的损害,以及沙特与伊朗之间的全方位对抗(这位副王储正在火上浇油)。受经济疲软和争夺石油市场份额驱动,挑衅行为可能会让一个糟糕的地区更加动荡。And the country matters in the world, as well. Global oil consumption may be coming to its peak but it will stay at around 90 to 100mbd for a very long time. The kingdom is a crucial part of the equation and should be on the side of stability. Pretending the price doesn’t matter reflects a lack of interest or knowledge when it comes to the wider consequences of the policies being pursued.这个国家对整个世界同样举足轻重。全球石油消费可能即将见顶,但仍将在很长时期内保持在每日9000万至1亿桶水平上。沙特王国是石油供需平衡的关键组成部分,应该成为稳定的力量。假装油价无关紧要反映出,对于政策带来的更广泛的后果,某些人要么不关心、要么不懂。For Saudi Arabia, the lack of realism behind Vision 2030 can only make a messy situation worse. For those outside the kingdom, the naivity of the approach is another unwelcome source of instability and danger.对于沙特阿拉伯来说,《愿030》背后的不切实际只会让混乱的局面更加糟糕。对于沙特以外的国家来说,这种战略的幼稚是另一个不受欢迎的动荡和危险的源头。来 /201605/441909

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